InvestMarket 指標回測(固定最佳操作方式,搜尋選股指標・動態換股模式)

本次回測參數(搜尋範圍 → 找到的最佳值;沒有寫「搜尋範圍」的欄位都是固定值,不搜尋)
・操作方式(固定值,沿用①頁「操作方式回測」最佳,不在這頁搜尋):槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)
・選股指標權重搜尋範圍:動能=0~1(範圍)、均線乖離=0~1(範圍)、RSI(強勢)=0~1(範圍)
  → 找到最佳組合:動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.6 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
・每日取前 K 名:K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5
・持有方式:動態換股;幾日未進前K名就換股,搜尋範圍:x∈4日 → 找到最佳 x=4日
  跌出第幾名就換股,搜尋範圍:y∈第11名 → 找到最佳 y=第11名
  x/y 條件關係(固定值,不搜尋):OR,任一成立即可

產生時間:2026-10-19 17:22:58 台灣時間(花費 29分52秒)
固定操作方式:槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)(來源:操作方式回測最佳)
持有方式:動態換股(依排名持續監控,無固定到期);找到最佳=連續 4 日未進前K名,或排名跌出第 11 名,就換成當天前K名裡還沒被持有的最高排名標的;兩條件關係:OR,任一成立即可(固定值,不搜尋;x/y 的搜尋範圍見上方「本次回測參數」)
每日取排名前 K 名等權重(K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5);標的 41 檔;進場樣本 1235(訊號日間隔 1 日曆日,沿用操作方式回測); 指標窗格 10 個交易日(配合持有 14 日曆日換算,約 5/7 比例);期間共切 6 段、全部段都評估(沿用操作方式回測的期間數與切法,三頁一致,數字才能互相比較;純公式規則不需要訓練,不用留暖身期) ;搜尋 27 組權重×K×x×y(動態換股貝氏搜尋(optuna-tpe,15/15 組))

沿用操作方式回測的資金模式與排名目標(口徑一致才能比較「選股」vs「全買」):資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入)

指標回測控制頁 ・ 操作方式回測 ・ 每日排名

✅ 搜尋出的權重勝過預設等權重組合(判定口徑=複利:資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入))
★判定口徑:複利 對照:固定資金口徑
組合年化 %
(資金週轉,
排名依據)
平均實際
持有日
每筆等效複利率
(資金曲線口徑) %
最差期間
min_pc %
年化固定資金 %每筆平均
fx_avg %
最差期間
fx_min %
最佳指標組合+321.721.2+8.729-1.070+224.5+13.055-3.029
預設等權重組合(三指標各1/3、前3名)+108.016.9+3.441-0.369+154.9+7.155-0.654
(最佳組合同時勝過預設指標組合)
使用組合:動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.6 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
每日前 5 名
3 個指標都是純技術規則(不是訓練出來的模型):動能=10個交易日報酬率;均線乖離=短均(10日)/長均(8倍)-1; RSI(強勢)=Wilder平滑 RSI 取「數值高」方向。權重與 K 用同一批評估期間窮舉搜尋出來(不是訓練模型,不需要 walk-forward,但權重/K 的選擇本身 看過全部評估期間的資料,跟操作方式回測選最佳參數一樣有事後選擇偏誤,正式使用前建議做樣本外驗證)。
「預設等權重組合」=固定基準線:三個指標權重各 1/3、每日前 3 名,不經搜尋;用來看「搜尋出來的權重」有沒有比不搜尋更好。

最佳組合:各期間(out-of-sample)

期間(訊號日)日曆日數每筆等效複利率 %選中標的單筆平均%(權益,算術) 整段期間報酬 %
(各路徑複利後平均)
固定資金每筆平均 %
(不複利)
固定資金整段累加 %每條路徑平均幾筆候選訊號日數軌道獲利比例
2021-11-14~2022-09-09300-1.070-3.034-53.57-3.029-216.471.330%
2022-09-10~2023-07-06300+0.684+3.619+54.33+3.635+230.463.73100%
2023-07-07~2024-05-01300+1.772+13.426+243.96+13.430+944.370.33100%
2024-05-02~2025-02-25300-0.059+4.292-4.37+4.292+326.276333%
2025-02-26~2025-12-22300+3.135+27.297+367.99+27.297+1364.9503100%
2025-12-23~2026-10-19301+2.221+32.708+310.88+32.703+2104.264.33100%
全部期間(複利/累加)1801+0.969+4431.99+12.016+4753.5395.618

前 12 名指標組合

本次總共評估了 28 組指標組合(含 1 組預設等權重基準對照)。搜尋結果常是「高原分佈」——很多組合報酬相近, 但也有一些組合明顯較差甚至虧損;下面先看前12名,再往下看「後5名」對照,有助於判斷要避開哪些指標權重區域,不要只看前幾名就以為隨便一組都差不多好。

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
1每日前 5 名+8.729+321.721.2-1.070+1.104+13.055x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.6 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
2每日前 5 名+6.030+181.020.7-0.872+1.229+10.674x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
3每日前 5 名+5.342+264.414.7-0.126+0.742+5.208x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
4每日前 5 名+4.929+163.018.2-0.489+0.928+7.537x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
5每日前 5 名+4.925+165.218.0-0.716+0.963+8.013x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
6每日前 5 名+4.867+186.616.5-0.055+0.621+7.017x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
7每日前 5 名+4.637+170.516.6-0.123+0.696+7.567x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
8每日前 5 名+4.444+178.915.5-0.015+0.928+5.792x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
9每日前 5 名+4.093+127.317.8-0.648+0.670+7.408x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
10每日前 5 名+3.735+136.115.6+0.170+0.814+6.351x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
11每日前 5 名+3.675+102.718.6-0.528+0.625+7.420x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.2
12每日前 5 名+3.616+110.217.4-0.550+0.816+6.958x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3

後 5 名指標組合(對照用,避開這些區域)

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
24每日前 5 名+2.721+119.612.5-0.017+0.475+3.664x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.1 + 均線乖離×0.1 + RSI(強勢)×0.8
25每日前 5 名+2.425+107.412.0-0.116+0.673+4.392x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.0 + RSI(強勢)×0.6
26每日前 5 名+2.401+89.213.6-0.441+0.724+5.267x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
27每日前 5 名+1.385+26.421.5-1.209+0.600+7.876x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.0
28每日前 5 名+0.731+9.628.9-0.700+0.325+9.910x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.9 + RSI(強勢)×0.1

報酬率分佈(單筆交易,查錯用)

每一筆是「一個標的、一個進場日」的實際模擬結果(權益%:已含槓桿、手續費與滑價,持有最長 21 日曆日)。用來檢查有沒有不合理的地方(例如停損筆的報酬遠超過停損設定、到期筆全部為正等)。(動態換股模式:每筆代表一次真正的排名換股或價格出場,不含期間結束時的強制標記;共 2804 筆。)
強平的位置:價格跌到權益虧損約 90%(=1 ÷ 槓桿 × 0.9,交易所會在保證金耗盡之前就強制平倉,不會等到虧 100%)就視為強平,所以「不設停損」時的大虧會集中在 −90% 再加上手續費/滑價(約 −91% ~ −93%),而不是 −100%;強平在表中歸類為「停損」。若遇跳空一開盤就穿過強平價,才會虧得更多(表中「跳空停損」的最小值)。

最佳指標組合(動態換股,整段歷史,全部軌道合併)

筆數平均%中位數%標準差%勝率%最小%P5P25P75P95最大%
2804+17.94-2.02174.8043.6-87.92-30.05-10.51+11.86+69.26+3231.63

等距 2%(細節)

(-88, -86]%: 21筆 (0.75%)(-88, -86]%21筆(0.7%)(-86, -84]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-86, -84]%0筆(0.0%)(-84, -82]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-84, -82]%0筆(0.0%)(-82, -80]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-82, -80]%0筆(0.0%)(-80, -78]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-80, -78]%0筆(0.0%)(-78, -76]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-78, -76]%0筆(0.0%)(-76, -74]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-76, -74]%0筆(0.0%)(-74, -72]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-74, -72]%0筆(0.0%)(-72, -70]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-72, -70]%0筆(0.0%)(-70, -68]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-70, -68]%0筆(0.0%)(-68, -66]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-68, -66]%0筆(0.0%)(-66, -64]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-66, -64]%0筆(0.0%)(-64, -62]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(-64, -62]%7筆(0.2%)(-62, -60]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-62, -60]%0筆(0.0%)(-60, -58]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-60, -58]%0筆(0.0%)(-58, -56]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-58, -56]%0筆(0.0%)(-56, -54]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-56, -54]%0筆(0.0%)(-54, -52]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(-54, -52]%7筆(0.2%)(-52, -50]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-52, -50]%0筆(0.0%)(-50, -48]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(-50, -48]%7筆(0.2%)(-48, -46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-48, -46]%0筆(0.0%)(-46, -44]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-46, -44]%0筆(0.0%)(-44, -42]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(-44, -42]%7筆(0.2%)(-42, -40]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(-42, -40]%7筆(0.2%)(-40, -38]%: 28筆 (1.00%)(-40, -38]%28筆(1.0%)(-38, -36]%: 14筆 (0.50%)(-38, -36]%14筆(0.5%)(-36, -34]%: 14筆 (0.50%)(-36, -34]%14筆(0.5%)(-34, -32]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-34, -32]%0筆(0.0%)(-32, -30]%: 29筆 (1.03%)(-32, -30]%29筆(1.0%)(-30, -28]%: 28筆 (1.00%)(-30, -28]%28筆(1.0%)(-28, -26]%: 16筆 (0.57%)(-28, -26]%16筆(0.6%)(-26, -24]%: 2筆 (0.07%)(-26, -24]%2筆(0.1%)(-24, -22]%: 63筆 (2.25%)(-24, -22]%63筆(2.2%)(-22, -20]%: 42筆 (1.50%)(-22, -20]%42筆(1.5%)(-20, -18]%: 61筆 (2.18%)(-20, -18]%61筆(2.2%)(-18, -16]%: 63筆 (2.25%)(-18, -16]%63筆(2.2%)(-16, -14]%: 93筆 (3.32%)(-16, -14]%93筆(3.3%)(-14, -12]%: 124筆 (4.42%)(-14, -12]%124筆(4.4%)(-12, -10]%: 100筆 (3.57%)(-12, -10]%100筆(3.6%)(-10, -8]%: 114筆 (4.07%)(-10, -8]%114筆(4.1%)(-8, -6]%: 210筆 (7.49%)(-8, -6]%210筆(7.5%)(-6, -4]%: 229筆 (8.17%)(-6, -4]%229筆(8.2%)(-4, -2]%: 116筆 (4.14%)(-4, -2]%116筆(4.1%)(-2, 0]%: 179筆 (6.38%)(-2, 0]%179筆(6.4%)(0, 2]%: 106筆 (3.78%)(0, 2]%106筆(3.8%)(2, 4]%: 121筆 (4.32%)(2, 4]%121筆(4.3%)(4, 6]%: 112筆 (3.99%)(4, 6]%112筆(4.0%)(6, 8]%: 70筆 (2.50%)(6, 8]%70筆(2.5%)(8, 10]%: 83筆 (2.96%)(8, 10]%83筆(3.0%)(10, 12]%: 57筆 (2.03%)(10, 12]%57筆(2.0%)(12, 14]%: 53筆 (1.89%)(12, 14]%53筆(1.9%)(14, 16]%: 56筆 (2.00%)(14, 16]%56筆(2.0%)(16, 18]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(16, 18]%7筆(0.2%)(18, 20]%: 47筆 (1.68%)(18, 20]%47筆(1.7%)(20, 22]%: 43筆 (1.53%)(20, 22]%43筆(1.5%)(22, 24]%: 29筆 (1.03%)(22, 24]%29筆(1.0%)(24, 26]%: 21筆 (0.75%)(24, 26]%21筆(0.7%)(26, 28]%: 9筆 (0.32%)(26, 28]%9筆(0.3%)(28, 30]%: 22筆 (0.78%)(28, 30]%22筆(0.8%)(30, 32]%: 8筆 (0.29%)(30, 32]%8筆(0.3%)(32, 34]%: 14筆 (0.50%)(32, 34]%14筆(0.5%)(34, 36]%: 29筆 (1.03%)(34, 36]%29筆(1.0%)(36, 38]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(36, 38]%7筆(0.2%)(38, 40]%: 21筆 (0.75%)(38, 40]%21筆(0.7%)(40, 42]%: 28筆 (1.00%)(40, 42]%28筆(1.0%)(42, 44]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(42, 44]%0筆(0.0%)(44, 46]%: 14筆 (0.50%)(44, 46]%14筆(0.5%)(46, 48]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(46, 48]%0筆(0.0%)(48, 50]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(48, 50]%0筆(0.0%)(50, 52]%: 21筆 (0.75%)(50, 52]%21筆(0.7%)(52, 54]%: 21筆 (0.75%)(52, 54]%21筆(0.7%)(54, 56]%: 28筆 (1.00%)(54, 56]%28筆(1.0%)(56, 58]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(56, 58]%7筆(0.2%)(58, 60]%: 28筆 (1.00%)(58, 60]%28筆(1.0%)(60, 62]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(60, 62]%7筆(0.2%)(62, 64]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(62, 64]%7筆(0.2%)(64, 66]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(64, 66]%0筆(0.0%)(66, 68]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(66, 68]%0筆(0.0%)(68, 70]%: 14筆 (0.50%)(68, 70]%14筆(0.5%)(70, 72]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(70, 72]%7筆(0.2%)(72, 74]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(72, 74]%7筆(0.2%)(74, 76]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(74, 76]%0筆(0.0%)(76, 78]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(76, 78]%7筆(0.2%)(78, 80]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(78, 80]%7筆(0.2%)(80, 82]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(80, 82]%7筆(0.2%)(82, 84]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(82, 84]%0筆(0.0%)(84, 86]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(84, 86]%7筆(0.2%)(86, 88]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(86, 88]%0筆(0.0%)(88, 90]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(88, 90]%0筆(0.0%)(90, 92]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(90, 92]%0筆(0.0%)(92, 94]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(92, 94]%0筆(0.0%)(94, 96]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(94, 96]%0筆(0.0%)(96, 98]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(96, 98]%0筆(0.0%)(98, 100]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(98, 100]%0筆(0.0%)(100, 102]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(100, 102]%0筆(0.0%)(102, 104]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(102, 104]%7筆(0.2%)(104, 106]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(104, 106]%0筆(0.0%)(106, 108]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(106, 108]%0筆(0.0%)(108, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(108, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 112]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(110, 112]%7筆(0.2%)(112, 114]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(112, 114]%0筆(0.0%)(114, 116]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(114, 116]%0筆(0.0%)(116, 118]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(116, 118]%7筆(0.2%)(118, 120]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(118, 120]%7筆(0.2%)(120, 122]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(120, 122]%0筆(0.0%)(122, 124]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(122, 124]%0筆(0.0%)(124, 126]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(124, 126]%7筆(0.2%)(126, 128]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(126, 128]%0筆(0.0%)(128, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(128, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 132]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 132]%0筆(0.0%)(132, 134]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(132, 134]%0筆(0.0%)(134, 136]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(134, 136]%0筆(0.0%)(136, 138]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(136, 138]%7筆(0.2%)(138, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(138, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 142]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 142]%0筆(0.0%)(142, 144]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(142, 144]%0筆(0.0%)(144, 146]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(144, 146]%0筆(0.0%)(146, 148]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(146, 148]%0筆(0.0%)(148, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(148, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 152]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 152]%0筆(0.0%)(152, 154]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(152, 154]%0筆(0.0%)(154, 156]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(154, 156]%0筆(0.0%)(156, 158]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(156, 158]%0筆(0.0%)(158, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(158, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 162]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 162]%0筆(0.0%)(162, 164]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(162, 164]%7筆(0.2%)(164, 166]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(164, 166]%0筆(0.0%)(166, 168]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(166, 168]%0筆(0.0%)(168, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(168, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 172]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 172]%0筆(0.0%)(172, 174]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(172, 174]%0筆(0.0%)(174, 176]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(174, 176]%0筆(0.0%)(176, 178]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(176, 178]%0筆(0.0%)(178, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(178, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 182]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 182]%0筆(0.0%)(182, 184]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(182, 184]%0筆(0.0%)(184, 186]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(184, 186]%0筆(0.0%)(186, 188]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(186, 188]%0筆(0.0%)(188, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(188, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 192]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 192]%0筆(0.0%)(192, 194]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(192, 194]%0筆(0.0%)(194, 196]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(194, 196]%0筆(0.0%)(196, 198]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(196, 198]%0筆(0.0%)(198, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(198, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 202]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 202]%0筆(0.0%)(202, 204]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(202, 204]%0筆(0.0%)(204, 206]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(204, 206]%0筆(0.0%)(206, 208]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(206, 208]%0筆(0.0%)(208, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(208, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 212]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 212]%0筆(0.0%)(212, 214]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(212, 214]%0筆(0.0%)(214, 216]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(214, 216]%0筆(0.0%)(216, 218]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(216, 218]%0筆(0.0%)(218, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(218, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 222]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 222]%0筆(0.0%)(222, 224]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(222, 224]%0筆(0.0%)(224, 226]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(224, 226]%0筆(0.0%)(226, 228]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(226, 228]%0筆(0.0%)(228, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(228, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 232]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 232]%0筆(0.0%)(232, 234]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(232, 234]%0筆(0.0%)(234, 236]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(234, 236]%0筆(0.0%)(236, 238]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(236, 238]%0筆(0.0%)(238, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(238, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 242]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 242]%0筆(0.0%)(242, 244]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(242, 244]%0筆(0.0%)(244, 246]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(244, 246]%0筆(0.0%)(246, 248]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(246, 248]%0筆(0.0%)(248, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(248, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 252]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 252]%0筆(0.0%)(252, 254]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(252, 254]%0筆(0.0%)(254, 256]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(254, 256]%0筆(0.0%)(256, 258]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(256, 258]%0筆(0.0%)(258, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(258, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 262]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 262]%0筆(0.0%)(262, 264]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(262, 264]%0筆(0.0%)(264, 266]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(264, 266]%0筆(0.0%)(266, 268]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(266, 268]%0筆(0.0%)(268, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(268, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 272]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 272]%0筆(0.0%)(272, 274]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(272, 274]%0筆(0.0%)(274, 276]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(274, 276]%0筆(0.0%)(276, 278]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(276, 278]%0筆(0.0%)(278, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(278, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 282]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 282]%0筆(0.0%)(282, 284]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(282, 284]%0筆(0.0%)(284, 286]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(284, 286]%0筆(0.0%)(286, 288]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(286, 288]%0筆(0.0%)(288, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(288, 290]%0筆(0.0%)(290, 292]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(290, 292]%0筆(0.0%)(292, 294]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(292, 294]%0筆(0.0%)(294, 296]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(294, 296]%0筆(0.0%)(296, 298]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(296, 298]%0筆(0.0%)> 298%: 42筆 (1.50%)> 298%42筆(1.5%)

等距 10%(總覽)

(-90, -80]%: 21筆 (0.75%)(-90, -80]%21筆(0.7%)(-80, -70]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-80, -70]%0筆(0.0%)(-70, -60]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(-70, -60]%7筆(0.2%)(-60, -50]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(-60, -50]%7筆(0.2%)(-50, -40]%: 21筆 (0.75%)(-50, -40]%21筆(0.7%)(-40, -30]%: 85筆 (3.03%)(-40, -30]%85筆(3.0%)(-30, -20]%: 151筆 (5.39%)(-30, -20]%151筆(5.4%)(-20, -10]%: 441筆 (15.73%)(-20, -10]%441筆(15.7%)(-10, 0]%: 848筆 (30.24%)(-10, 0]%848筆(30.2%)(0, 10]%: 492筆 (17.55%)(0, 10]%492筆(17.5%)(10, 20]%: 220筆 (7.85%)(10, 20]%220筆(7.8%)(20, 30]%: 124筆 (4.42%)(20, 30]%124筆(4.4%)(30, 40]%: 79筆 (2.82%)(30, 40]%79筆(2.8%)(40, 50]%: 42筆 (1.50%)(40, 50]%42筆(1.5%)(50, 60]%: 105筆 (3.74%)(50, 60]%105筆(3.7%)(60, 70]%: 28筆 (1.00%)(60, 70]%28筆(1.0%)(70, 80]%: 28筆 (1.00%)(70, 80]%28筆(1.0%)(80, 90]%: 14筆 (0.50%)(80, 90]%14筆(0.5%)(90, 100]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(90, 100]%0筆(0.0%)(100, 110]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(100, 110]%7筆(0.2%)(110, 120]%: 21筆 (0.75%)(110, 120]%21筆(0.7%)(120, 130]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(120, 130]%7筆(0.2%)(130, 140]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(130, 140]%7筆(0.2%)(140, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 170]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(160, 170]%7筆(0.2%)(170, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 290]%0筆(0.0%)> 290%: 42筆 (1.50%)> 290%42筆(1.5%)
資金曲線年化估算(實際複利路徑,幾何平均):+263.3%/年
依據:7 條互不重疊軌道,實際經過約 1782 天(約 4.9 年), 期末倍數跨軌道取幾何平均 = 542.81x,換算年化 +263.3%。
這個數字比下方「各期間報酬表」的算術平均更貼近實際:算術平均會被少數爆賺的軌道拉高 (例如某一軌 50 倍、另一軌只有 1.3 倍,算術平均會被前者拉走),幾何平均才代表「典型一條軌道」的真實經驗, 也是唯一真正對應「一筆錢從頭到尾連續投入」這個情境的算法。

多軌資金曲線(查驗複利風險用)

把整段歷史攤開,畫出 7 條互不重疊、各自獨立複利的資金軌道(起始都是 1.0,y 軸是對數座標, 因為複利成長可以跨好幾個數量級,線性座標會看不出早期的細節)。這張圖用來直接檢查「不停損(或停損很鬆)時, 會不會有某一軌被少數重摔的標的拖累,一路很久墊在低點沒有回本」——如果真的發生,會在圖上看到某條線大幅落後其他條、 長時間貼在低檔;如果只是像本頁其他數字顯示的那樣穩定成長,代表不是靠犧牲少數軌道去平均出來的, 而是因為每一筆交易本身就是「當天全部標的等權重」的組合報酬,單一標的重摔只會拉低當天組合報酬的一小部分 (例如池子裡 40 檔,一檔摔 −100% 只讓當天組合報酬掉約 −2.5 個百分點),不會讓整條資金軌道腰斬。 目前最差的一軌是第 5 軌,期末倍數 91.04x; 全部軌道中最低點是第 1 軌在 2023-01-05,掉到 0.33x。
各軌最低點:第1軌 2023-01-05 0.33x;第2軌 2023-01-05 0.38x;第3軌 2023-01-05 0.41x;第4軌 2023-01-05 0.43x;第5軌 2023-01-05 0.43x;第6軌 2023-01-05 0.44x;第7軌 2023-01-05 0.38x。

0.2x0.5x1x2x5x10x20x50x100x200x500x1000x2021-11-242022-09-172023-07-122024-05-052025-02-272025-12-222026-10-16第1軌 期末=784.96x第1軌 784.96x第2軌 期末=1298.57x第2軌 1298.57x第3軌 期末=1442.85x第3軌 1442.85x第4軌 期末=91.26x第4軌 91.26x第5軌 期末=91.04x第5軌 91.04x第6軌 期末=1387.76x第6軌 1387.76x第7軌 期末=818.79x第7軌 818.79x

選中交易的進出場目視檢查(最佳指標組合+最佳操作方式)

動態換股模式尚未支援進出場時線圖。

選股規則=動能/均線乖離/RSI 三個指標在同一訊號日的百分位排名加權平均,指標窗格配合持有期換算,跟操作方式(槓桿/停損/停利)完全脫鉤, 所以指標好壞與操作方式好壞分開判斷。權重與 K 用「排名分數」(依資金模式,見上方)窮舉搜尋;試驗組數愈多不代表愈可靠, 請對照「預設等權重組合」與「全買」兩個基準,不要只看單一數字。本頁不構成投資建議。