InvestMarket 指標回測(固定最佳操作方式,搜尋選股指標・動態換股模式)

本次回測參數(搜尋範圍 → 找到的最佳值;沒有寫「搜尋範圍」的欄位都是固定值,不搜尋)
・操作方式(固定值,沿用①頁「操作方式回測」最佳,不在這頁搜尋):槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)
・選股指標權重搜尋範圍:動能=0~1(範圍)、均線乖離=0~1(範圍)、RSI(強勢)=0~1(範圍)
  → 找到最佳組合:動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
・每日取前 K 名:K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5
・持有方式:動態換股;幾日未進前K名就換股,搜尋範圍:x∈4日 → 找到最佳 x=4日
  跌出第幾名就換股,搜尋範圍:y∈第11名 → 找到最佳 y=第11名
  x/y 條件關係(固定值,不搜尋):OR,任一成立即可

產生時間:2026-10-11 20:50:53 台灣時間(花費 28分8秒)
固定操作方式:槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)(來源:操作方式回測最佳)
持有方式:動態換股(依排名持續監控,無固定到期);找到最佳=連續 4 日未進前K名,或排名跌出第 11 名,就換成當天前K名裡還沒被持有的最高排名標的;兩條件關係:OR,任一成立即可(固定值,不搜尋;x/y 的搜尋範圍見上方「本次回測參數」)
每日取排名前 K 名等權重(K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5);標的 41 檔;進場樣本 1235(訊號日間隔 1 日曆日,沿用操作方式回測); 指標窗格 10 個交易日(配合持有 14 日曆日換算,約 5/7 比例);期間共切 6 段、全部段都評估(沿用操作方式回測的期間數與切法,三頁一致,數字才能互相比較;純公式規則不需要訓練,不用留暖身期) ;搜尋 27 組權重×K×x×y(動態換股貝氏搜尋(optuna-tpe,15/15 組))

沿用操作方式回測的資金模式與排名目標(口徑一致才能比較「選股」vs「全買」):資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入)

指標回測控制頁 ・ 操作方式回測 ・ 每日排名

✅ 搜尋出的權重勝過預設等權重組合(判定口徑=複利:資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入))
★判定口徑:複利 對照:固定資金口徑
組合年化 %
(資金週轉,
排名依據)
平均實際
持有日
每筆等效複利率
(資金曲線口徑) %
最差期間
min_pc %
年化固定資金 %每筆平均
fx_avg %
最差期間
fx_min %
最佳指標組合+748.317.1+10.530+0.076+252.5+11.822+1.026
預設等權重組合(三指標各1/3、前3名)+681.017.2+10.157+0.256+266.7+12.551+1.642
(最佳組合同時勝過預設指標組合)
⚠ 注意:依判定口徑雖勝過全買,但在「固定資金」口徑下平均反而輸給全買(+11.822% vs +12.551%)。意思是選股讓「每筆平均」變高,但集中持股讓波動變大;若你實際會把獲利滾入下一筆,請以複利口徑為準。另外「最佳」是從多次試驗挑出的,含挑選偏誤(in-sample),樣本外結果通常較差。
使用組合:動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
每日前 5 名
3 個指標都是純技術規則(不是訓練出來的模型):動能=10個交易日報酬率;均線乖離=短均(10日)/長均(8倍)-1; RSI(強勢)=Wilder平滑 RSI 取「數值高」方向。權重與 K 用同一批評估期間窮舉搜尋出來(不是訓練模型,不需要 walk-forward,但權重/K 的選擇本身 看過全部評估期間的資料,跟操作方式回測選最佳參數一樣有事後選擇偏誤,正式使用前建議做樣本外驗證)。
「預設等權重組合」=固定基準線:三個指標權重各 1/3、每日前 3 名,不經搜尋;用來看「搜尋出來的權重」有沒有比不搜尋更好。

最佳組合:各期間(out-of-sample)

期間(訊號日)日曆日數每筆等效複利率 %選中標的單筆平均%(權益,算術) 整段期間報酬 %
(各路徑複利後平均)
固定資金每筆平均 %
(不複利)
固定資金整段累加 %每條路徑平均幾筆候選訊號日數軌道獲利比例
2021-11-06~2022-09-01300+0.076+1.026+5.66+1.026+73.872367%
2022-09-02~2023-06-28300+1.188+6.114+137.77+6.116+448.473.33100%
2023-06-29~2024-04-23300+1.923+16.283+361.89+16.283+1308.080.33100%
2024-04-24~2025-02-17300+1.477+13.458+213.76+13.465+1049.7783100%
2025-02-18~2025-12-14300+2.032+14.926+319.94+14.928+1064.771.33100%
2025-12-15~2026-10-11301+1.957+19.113+390.08+19.113+1567.2823100%
全部期間(複利/累加)1801+1.459+74828.63+12.064+5511.9456.918

前 12 名指標組合

本次總共評估了 28 組指標組合(含 1 組預設等權重基準對照)。搜尋結果常是「高原分佈」——很多組合報酬相近, 但也有一些組合明顯較差甚至虧損;下面先看前12名,再往下看「後5名」對照,有助於判斷要避開哪些指標權重區域,不要只看前幾名就以為隨便一組都差不多好。

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
1每日前 5 名+10.530+748.317.1+0.076+1.440+11.822x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
2每日前 5 名+10.157+681.017.2+0.256+1.432+12.551x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
3每日前 5 名+10.157+681.017.2+0.256+1.432+12.551x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
4每日前 5 名+9.671+623.517.0+0.083+1.331+11.676x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
5每日前 5 名+7.564+399.916.5-0.026+1.392+11.250x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
6每日前 5 名+7.504+367.117.1+0.033+1.323+12.296x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
7每日前 5 名+7.351+326.717.9-0.109+1.411+11.229x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
8每日前 5 名+7.277+399.215.9+0.003+1.428+11.338x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.5 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
9每日前 5 名+6.840+290.417.7-0.046+1.294+11.122x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
10每日前 5 名+6.805+441.014.2-0.048+1.204+8.299x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
11每日前 5 名+6.772+299.717.3-0.247+1.502+12.644x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
12每日前 5 名+6.772+299.717.3-0.247+1.502+12.644x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3

後 5 名指標組合(對照用,避開這些區域)

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
24每日前 5 名+5.152+164.218.9-0.432+1.417+10.935x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
25每日前 5 名+5.052+267.613.8+0.052+1.280+8.404x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
26每日前 5 名+4.578+137.918.9-0.057+1.085+10.482x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.2
27每日前 5 名+4.005+99.020.8-1.230+0.598+7.700x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.0
28每日前 5 名+3.080+64.322.3-0.395+0.922+12.655x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.1

報酬率分佈(單筆交易,查錯用)

每一筆是「一個標的、一個進場日」的實際模擬結果(權益%:已含槓桿、手續費與滑價,持有最長 17 日曆日)。用來檢查有沒有不合理的地方(例如停損筆的報酬遠超過停損設定、到期筆全部為正等)。(動態換股模式:每筆代表一次真正的排名換股或價格出場,不含期間結束時的強制標記;共 3241 筆。)
強平的位置:價格跌到權益虧損約 90%(=1 ÷ 槓桿 × 0.9,交易所會在保證金耗盡之前就強制平倉,不會等到虧 100%)就視為強平,所以「不設停損」時的大虧會集中在 −90% 再加上手續費/滑價(約 −91% ~ −93%),而不是 −100%;強平在表中歸類為「停損」。若遇跳空一開盤就穿過強平價,才會虧得更多(表中「跳空停損」的最小值)。

最佳指標組合(動態換股,整段歷史,全部軌道合併)

筆數平均%中位數%標準差%勝率%最小%P5P25P75P95最大%
3241+13.79+0.7464.6752.8-59.89-22.67-6.80+13.77+77.92+668.75

等距 2%(細節)

(-60, -58]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-60, -58]%7筆(0.2%)(-58, -56]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-58, -56]%0筆(0.0%)(-56, -54]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-56, -54]%0筆(0.0%)(-54, -52]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-54, -52]%7筆(0.2%)(-52, -50]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-52, -50]%0筆(0.0%)(-50, -48]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-50, -48]%7筆(0.2%)(-48, -46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-48, -46]%0筆(0.0%)(-46, -44]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-46, -44]%0筆(0.0%)(-44, -42]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-44, -42]%0筆(0.0%)(-42, -40]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-42, -40]%0筆(0.0%)(-40, -38]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-40, -38]%7筆(0.2%)(-38, -36]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-38, -36]%0筆(0.0%)(-36, -34]%: 21筆 (0.65%)(-36, -34]%21筆(0.6%)(-34, -32]%: 21筆 (0.65%)(-34, -32]%21筆(0.6%)(-32, -30]%: 28筆 (0.86%)(-32, -30]%28筆(0.9%)(-30, -28]%: 14筆 (0.43%)(-30, -28]%14筆(0.4%)(-28, -26]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-28, -26]%7筆(0.2%)(-26, -24]%: 37筆 (1.14%)(-26, -24]%37筆(1.1%)(-24, -22]%: 8筆 (0.25%)(-24, -22]%8筆(0.2%)(-22, -20]%: 64筆 (1.97%)(-22, -20]%64筆(2.0%)(-20, -18]%: 29筆 (0.89%)(-20, -18]%29筆(0.9%)(-18, -16]%: 49筆 (1.51%)(-18, -16]%49筆(1.5%)(-16, -14]%: 64筆 (1.97%)(-16, -14]%64筆(2.0%)(-14, -12]%: 99筆 (3.05%)(-14, -12]%99筆(3.1%)(-12, -10]%: 107筆 (3.30%)(-12, -10]%107筆(3.3%)(-10, -8]%: 133筆 (4.10%)(-10, -8]%133筆(4.1%)(-8, -6]%: 176筆 (5.43%)(-8, -6]%176筆(5.4%)(-6, -4]%: 198筆 (6.11%)(-6, -4]%198筆(6.1%)(-4, -2]%: 264筆 (8.15%)(-4, -2]%264筆(8.1%)(-2, 0]%: 183筆 (5.65%)(-2, 0]%183筆(5.6%)(0, 2]%: 210筆 (6.48%)(0, 2]%210筆(6.5%)(2, 4]%: 154筆 (4.75%)(2, 4]%154筆(4.8%)(4, 6]%: 162筆 (5.00%)(4, 6]%162筆(5.0%)(6, 8]%: 91筆 (2.81%)(6, 8]%91筆(2.8%)(8, 10]%: 93筆 (2.87%)(8, 10]%93筆(2.9%)(10, 12]%: 145筆 (4.47%)(10, 12]%145筆(4.5%)(12, 14]%: 56筆 (1.73%)(12, 14]%56筆(1.7%)(14, 16]%: 71筆 (2.19%)(14, 16]%71筆(2.2%)(16, 18]%: 36筆 (1.11%)(16, 18]%36筆(1.1%)(18, 20]%: 55筆 (1.70%)(18, 20]%55筆(1.7%)(20, 22]%: 36筆 (1.11%)(20, 22]%36筆(1.1%)(22, 24]%: 49筆 (1.51%)(22, 24]%49筆(1.5%)(24, 26]%: 42筆 (1.30%)(24, 26]%42筆(1.3%)(26, 28]%: 63筆 (1.94%)(26, 28]%63筆(1.9%)(28, 30]%: 21筆 (0.65%)(28, 30]%21筆(0.6%)(30, 32]%: 28筆 (0.86%)(30, 32]%28筆(0.9%)(32, 34]%: 42筆 (1.30%)(32, 34]%42筆(1.3%)(34, 36]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(34, 36]%7筆(0.2%)(36, 38]%: 21筆 (0.65%)(36, 38]%21筆(0.6%)(38, 40]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(38, 40]%7筆(0.2%)(40, 42]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(40, 42]%7筆(0.2%)(42, 44]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(42, 44]%7筆(0.2%)(44, 46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(44, 46]%0筆(0.0%)(46, 48]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(46, 48]%7筆(0.2%)(48, 50]%: 14筆 (0.43%)(48, 50]%14筆(0.4%)(50, 52]%: 14筆 (0.43%)(50, 52]%14筆(0.4%)(52, 54]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(52, 54]%7筆(0.2%)(54, 56]%: 14筆 (0.43%)(54, 56]%14筆(0.4%)(56, 58]%: 14筆 (0.43%)(56, 58]%14筆(0.4%)(58, 60]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(58, 60]%7筆(0.2%)(60, 62]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(60, 62]%7筆(0.2%)(62, 64]%: 14筆 (0.43%)(62, 64]%14筆(0.4%)(64, 66]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(64, 66]%7筆(0.2%)(66, 68]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(66, 68]%7筆(0.2%)(68, 70]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(68, 70]%0筆(0.0%)(70, 72]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(70, 72]%7筆(0.2%)(72, 74]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(72, 74]%7筆(0.2%)(74, 76]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(74, 76]%7筆(0.2%)(76, 78]%: 21筆 (0.65%)(76, 78]%21筆(0.6%)(78, 80]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(78, 80]%0筆(0.0%)(80, 82]%: 14筆 (0.43%)(80, 82]%14筆(0.4%)(82, 84]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(82, 84]%7筆(0.2%)(84, 86]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(84, 86]%0筆(0.0%)(86, 88]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(86, 88]%7筆(0.2%)(88, 90]%: 14筆 (0.43%)(88, 90]%14筆(0.4%)(90, 92]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(90, 92]%7筆(0.2%)(92, 94]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(92, 94]%7筆(0.2%)(94, 96]%: 14筆 (0.43%)(94, 96]%14筆(0.4%)(96, 98]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(96, 98]%7筆(0.2%)(98, 100]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(98, 100]%7筆(0.2%)(100, 102]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(100, 102]%0筆(0.0%)(102, 104]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(102, 104]%0筆(0.0%)(104, 106]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(104, 106]%0筆(0.0%)(106, 108]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(106, 108]%0筆(0.0%)(108, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(108, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 112]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 112]%0筆(0.0%)(112, 114]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(112, 114]%0筆(0.0%)(114, 116]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(114, 116]%0筆(0.0%)(116, 118]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(116, 118]%0筆(0.0%)(118, 120]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(118, 120]%7筆(0.2%)(120, 122]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(120, 122]%0筆(0.0%)(122, 124]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(122, 124]%0筆(0.0%)(124, 126]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(124, 126]%0筆(0.0%)(126, 128]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(126, 128]%0筆(0.0%)(128, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(128, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 132]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 132]%0筆(0.0%)(132, 134]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(132, 134]%0筆(0.0%)(134, 136]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(134, 136]%0筆(0.0%)(136, 138]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(136, 138]%0筆(0.0%)(138, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(138, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 142]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 142]%0筆(0.0%)(142, 144]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(142, 144]%0筆(0.0%)(144, 146]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(144, 146]%0筆(0.0%)(146, 148]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(146, 148]%0筆(0.0%)(148, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(148, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 152]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 152]%0筆(0.0%)(152, 154]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(152, 154]%0筆(0.0%)(154, 156]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(154, 156]%0筆(0.0%)(156, 158]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(156, 158]%7筆(0.2%)(158, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(158, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 162]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 162]%0筆(0.0%)(162, 164]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(162, 164]%0筆(0.0%)(164, 166]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(164, 166]%0筆(0.0%)(166, 168]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(166, 168]%0筆(0.0%)(168, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(168, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 172]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 172]%0筆(0.0%)(172, 174]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(172, 174]%0筆(0.0%)(174, 176]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(174, 176]%0筆(0.0%)(176, 178]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(176, 178]%0筆(0.0%)(178, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(178, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 182]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 182]%0筆(0.0%)(182, 184]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(182, 184]%0筆(0.0%)(184, 186]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(184, 186]%7筆(0.2%)(186, 188]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(186, 188]%0筆(0.0%)(188, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(188, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 192]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 192]%0筆(0.0%)(192, 194]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(192, 194]%0筆(0.0%)(194, 196]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(194, 196]%0筆(0.0%)(196, 198]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(196, 198]%0筆(0.0%)(198, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(198, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 202]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 202]%0筆(0.0%)(202, 204]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(202, 204]%0筆(0.0%)(204, 206]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(204, 206]%0筆(0.0%)(206, 208]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(206, 208]%0筆(0.0%)(208, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(208, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 212]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 212]%0筆(0.0%)(212, 214]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(212, 214]%0筆(0.0%)(214, 216]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(214, 216]%0筆(0.0%)(216, 218]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(216, 218]%0筆(0.0%)(218, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(218, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 222]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 222]%0筆(0.0%)(222, 224]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(222, 224]%0筆(0.0%)(224, 226]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(224, 226]%0筆(0.0%)(226, 228]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(226, 228]%0筆(0.0%)(228, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(228, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 232]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 232]%0筆(0.0%)(232, 234]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(232, 234]%0筆(0.0%)(234, 236]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(234, 236]%0筆(0.0%)(236, 238]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(236, 238]%0筆(0.0%)(238, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(238, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 242]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 242]%0筆(0.0%)(242, 244]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(242, 244]%0筆(0.0%)(244, 246]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(244, 246]%0筆(0.0%)(246, 248]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(246, 248]%0筆(0.0%)(248, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(248, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 252]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 252]%0筆(0.0%)(252, 254]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(252, 254]%0筆(0.0%)(254, 256]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(254, 256]%7筆(0.2%)(256, 258]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(256, 258]%0筆(0.0%)(258, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(258, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 262]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 262]%0筆(0.0%)(262, 264]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(262, 264]%0筆(0.0%)(264, 266]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(264, 266]%0筆(0.0%)(266, 268]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(266, 268]%0筆(0.0%)(268, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(268, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 272]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 272]%0筆(0.0%)(272, 274]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(272, 274]%0筆(0.0%)(274, 276]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(274, 276]%0筆(0.0%)(276, 278]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(276, 278]%0筆(0.0%)(278, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(278, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 282]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 282]%0筆(0.0%)(282, 284]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(282, 284]%0筆(0.0%)(284, 286]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(284, 286]%0筆(0.0%)(286, 288]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(286, 288]%0筆(0.0%)(288, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(288, 290]%0筆(0.0%)(290, 292]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(290, 292]%0筆(0.0%)(292, 294]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(292, 294]%0筆(0.0%)(294, 296]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(294, 296]%0筆(0.0%)(296, 298]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(296, 298]%0筆(0.0%)> 298%: 42筆 (1.30%)> 298%42筆(1.3%)

等距 10%(總覽)

(-60, -50]%: 14筆 (0.43%)(-60, -50]%14筆(0.4%)(-50, -40]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-50, -40]%7筆(0.2%)(-40, -30]%: 77筆 (2.38%)(-40, -30]%77筆(2.4%)(-30, -20]%: 130筆 (4.01%)(-30, -20]%130筆(4.0%)(-20, -10]%: 348筆 (10.74%)(-20, -10]%348筆(10.7%)(-10, 0]%: 954筆 (29.44%)(-10, 0]%954筆(29.4%)(0, 10]%: 710筆 (21.91%)(0, 10]%710筆(21.9%)(10, 20]%: 363筆 (11.20%)(10, 20]%363筆(11.2%)(20, 30]%: 211筆 (6.51%)(20, 30]%211筆(6.5%)(30, 40]%: 105筆 (3.24%)(30, 40]%105筆(3.2%)(40, 50]%: 35筆 (1.08%)(40, 50]%35筆(1.1%)(50, 60]%: 56筆 (1.73%)(50, 60]%56筆(1.7%)(60, 70]%: 35筆 (1.08%)(60, 70]%35筆(1.1%)(70, 80]%: 42筆 (1.30%)(70, 80]%42筆(1.3%)(80, 90]%: 42筆 (1.30%)(80, 90]%42筆(1.3%)(90, 100]%: 42筆 (1.30%)(90, 100]%42筆(1.3%)(100, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(100, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 120]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(110, 120]%7筆(0.2%)(120, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(120, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 160]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(150, 160]%7筆(0.2%)(160, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 190]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(180, 190]%7筆(0.2%)(190, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 260]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(250, 260]%7筆(0.2%)(260, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 290]%0筆(0.0%)> 290%: 42筆 (1.30%)> 290%42筆(1.3%)
資金曲線年化估算(實際複利路徑,幾何平均):+724.0%/年
依據:7 條互不重疊軌道,實際經過約 1784 天(約 4.9 年), 期末倍數跨軌道取幾何平均 = 29991.07x,換算年化 +724.0%。
這個數字比下方「各期間報酬表」的算術平均更貼近實際:算術平均會被少數爆賺的軌道拉高 (例如某一軌 50 倍、另一軌只有 1.3 倍,算術平均會被前者拉走),幾何平均才代表「典型一條軌道」的真實經驗, 也是唯一真正對應「一筆錢從頭到尾連續投入」這個情境的算法。

多軌資金曲線(查驗複利風險用)

把整段歷史攤開,畫出 7 條互不重疊、各自獨立複利的資金軌道(起始都是 1.0,y 軸是對數座標, 因為複利成長可以跨好幾個數量級,線性座標會看不出早期的細節)。這張圖用來直接檢查「不停損(或停損很鬆)時, 會不會有某一軌被少數重摔的標的拖累,一路很久墊在低點沒有回本」——如果真的發生,會在圖上看到某條線大幅落後其他條、 長時間貼在低檔;如果只是像本頁其他數字顯示的那樣穩定成長,代表不是靠犧牲少數軌道去平均出來的, 而是因為每一筆交易本身就是「當天全部標的等權重」的組合報酬,單一標的重摔只會拉低當天組合報酬的一小部分 (例如池子裡 40 檔,一檔摔 −100% 只讓當天組合報酬掉約 −2.5 個百分點),不會讓整條資金軌道腰斬。 目前最差的一軌是第 7 軌,期末倍數 4755.10x; 全部軌道中最低點是第 1 軌在 2022-02-04,掉到 0.68x。
各軌最低點:第1軌 2022-02-04 0.68x;第2軌 2022-02-04 0.80x;第3軌 2022-02-04 0.80x;第4軌 2022-02-04 0.94x;第5軌 2022-02-04 0.90x;第6軌 2022-02-04 0.88x;第7軌 2022-02-04 0.88x。

0.5x1x2x5x10x20x50x100x200x500x1000x2021-11-162022-09-102023-07-052024-04-282025-02-202025-12-152026-10-09第1軌 期末=32336.75x第1軌 32336.75x第2軌 期末=36799.67x第2軌 36799.67x第3軌 期末=36511.47x第3軌 36511.47x第4軌 期末=44192.19x第4軌 44192.19x第5軌 期末=56272.78x第5軌 56272.78x第6軌 期末=42478.66x第6軌 42478.66x第7軌 期末=4755.10x第7軌 4755.10x

選中交易的進出場目視檢查(最佳指標組合+最佳操作方式)

動態換股模式尚未支援進出場時線圖。

選股規則=動能/均線乖離/RSI 三個指標在同一訊號日的百分位排名加權平均,指標窗格配合持有期換算,跟操作方式(槓桿/停損/停利)完全脫鉤, 所以指標好壞與操作方式好壞分開判斷。權重與 K 用「排名分數」(依資金模式,見上方)窮舉搜尋;試驗組數愈多不代表愈可靠, 請對照「預設等權重組合」與「全買」兩個基準,不要只看單一數字。本頁不構成投資建議。