InvestMarket 指標回測(固定最佳操作方式,搜尋選股指標・動態換股模式)

本次回測參數(搜尋範圍 → 找到的最佳值;沒有寫「搜尋範圍」的欄位都是固定值,不搜尋)
・操作方式(固定值,沿用①頁「操作方式回測」最佳,不在這頁搜尋):槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)
・選股指標權重搜尋範圍:動能=0~1(範圍)、均線乖離=0~1(範圍)、RSI(強勢)=0~1(範圍)
  → 找到最佳組合:動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
・每日取前 K 名:K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5
・持有方式:動態換股;幾日未進前K名就換股,搜尋範圍:x∈4日 → 找到最佳 x=4日
  跌出第幾名就換股,搜尋範圍:y∈第11名 → 找到最佳 y=第11名
  x/y 條件關係(固定值,不搜尋):OR,任一成立即可

產生時間:2026-10-11 00:10:58 台灣時間(花費 27分41秒)
固定操作方式:槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)(來源:操作方式回測最佳)
持有方式:動態換股(依排名持續監控,無固定到期);找到最佳=連續 4 日未進前K名,或排名跌出第 11 名,就換成當天前K名裡還沒被持有的最高排名標的;兩條件關係:OR,任一成立即可(固定值,不搜尋;x/y 的搜尋範圍見上方「本次回測參數」)
每日取排名前 K 名等權重(K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5);標的 40 檔;進場樣本 1236(訊號日間隔 1 日曆日,沿用操作方式回測); 指標窗格 10 個交易日(配合持有 14 日曆日換算,約 5/7 比例);期間共切 6 段、全部段都評估(沿用操作方式回測的期間數與切法,三頁一致,數字才能互相比較;純公式規則不需要訓練,不用留暖身期) ;搜尋 27 組權重×K×x×y(動態換股貝氏搜尋(optuna-tpe,15/15 組))

沿用操作方式回測的資金模式與排名目標(口徑一致才能比較「選股」vs「全買」):資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入)

指標回測控制頁 ・ 操作方式回測 ・ 每日排名

✅ 搜尋出的權重勝過預設等權重組合(判定口徑=複利:資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入))
★判定口徑:複利 對照:固定資金口徑
組合年化 %
(資金週轉,
排名依據)
平均實際
持有日
每筆等效複利率
(資金曲線口徑) %
最差期間
min_pc %
年化固定資金 %每筆平均
fx_avg %
最差期間
fx_min %
最佳指標組合+448.517.4+8.468-0.481+276.0+13.183-0.588
預設等權重組合(三指標各1/3、前3名)+362.817.2+7.497-0.486+282.0+13.309-1.140
(最佳組合同時勝過預設指標組合)
⚠ 注意:依判定口徑雖勝過全買,但在「固定資金」口徑下平均反而輸給全買(+13.183% vs +13.309%)。意思是選股讓「每筆平均」變高,但集中持股讓波動變大;若你實際會把獲利滾入下一筆,請以複利口徑為準。另外「最佳」是從多次試驗挑出的,含挑選偏誤(in-sample),樣本外結果通常較差。
使用組合:動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
每日前 5 名
3 個指標都是純技術規則(不是訓練出來的模型):動能=10個交易日報酬率;均線乖離=短均(10日)/長均(8倍)-1; RSI(強勢)=Wilder平滑 RSI 取「數值高」方向。權重與 K 用同一批評估期間窮舉搜尋出來(不是訓練模型,不需要 walk-forward,但權重/K 的選擇本身 看過全部評估期間的資料,跟操作方式回測選最佳參數一樣有事後選擇偏誤,正式使用前建議做樣本外驗證)。
「預設等權重組合」=固定基準線:三個指標權重各 1/3、每日前 3 名,不經搜尋;用來看「搜尋出來的權重」有沒有比不搜尋更好。

最佳組合:各期間(out-of-sample)

期間(訊號日)日曆日數每筆等效複利率 %選中標的單筆平均%(權益,算術) 整段期間報酬 %
(各路徑複利後平均)
固定資金每筆平均 %
(不複利)
固定資金整段累加 %每條路徑平均幾筆候選訊號日數軌道獲利比例
2021-11-05~2022-08-31300-0.481-0.589-28.89-0.588-41.670.730%
2022-09-01~2023-06-27300+1.289+7.559+143.01+7.563+524.169.33100%
2023-06-28~2024-04-22300+2.293+18.536+427.22+18.539+1359.373.33100%
2024-04-23~2025-02-16300+1.669+17.136+312.97+17.136+1468.085.73100%
2025-02-17~2025-12-13300+2.265+16.293+456.93+16.295+1249.176.73100%
2025-12-14~2026-10-10301+2.174+20.150+458.54+20.150+1612.0803100%
全部期間(複利/累加)1801+1.562+116936.71+13.542+6170.9455.718

前 12 名指標組合

本次總共評估了 28 組指標組合(含 1 組預設等權重基準對照)。搜尋結果常是「高原分佈」——很多組合報酬相近, 但也有一些組合明顯較差甚至虧損;下面先看前12名,再往下看「後5名」對照,有助於判斷要避開哪些指標權重區域,不要只看前幾名就以為隨便一組都差不多好。

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
1每日前 5 名+8.468+448.517.4-0.481+1.530+13.183x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
2每日前 5 名+7.718+383.017.2-0.549+1.629+13.385x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
3每日前 5 名+7.668+281.320.1-0.228+1.422+14.608x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
4每日前 5 名+7.573+520.214.6-0.165+1.382+11.195x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.5 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
5每日前 5 名+7.497+362.817.2-0.486+1.597+13.309x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
6每日前 5 名+7.497+362.817.2-0.486+1.597+13.309x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
7每日前 5 名+7.377+329.717.8-0.154+1.338+12.056x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
8每日前 5 名+6.812+464.213.9+0.203+1.411+10.226x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
9每日前 5 名+6.769+462.013.8+0.271+1.577+10.468x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.2
10每日前 5 名+6.751+209.921.1-0.493+1.268+13.726x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.6 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
11每日前 5 名+6.695+301.617.0+0.107+1.494+12.918x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
12每日前 5 名+6.526+179.222.5-0.525+1.231+14.243x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.1

後 5 名指標組合(對照用,避開這些區域)

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
24每日前 5 名+5.690+370.813.0+0.123+1.252+9.635x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.8 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.0
25每日前 5 名+5.621+218.317.2-0.147+1.314+12.172x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
26每日前 5 名+5.317+174.818.7-0.552+1.513+11.891x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
27每日前 5 名+3.335+95.417.9-0.506+1.053+13.013x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.6 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.0
28每日前 5 名+3.193+69.621.7-0.794+0.896+10.876x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.0

報酬率分佈(單筆交易,查錯用)

每一筆是「一個標的、一個進場日」的實際模擬結果(權益%:已含槓桿、手續費與滑價,持有最長 17 日曆日)。用來檢查有沒有不合理的地方(例如停損筆的報酬遠超過停損設定、到期筆全部為正等)。(動態換股模式:每筆代表一次真正的排名換股或價格出場,不含期間結束時的強制標記;共 3152 筆。)
強平的位置:價格跌到權益虧損約 90%(=1 ÷ 槓桿 × 0.9,交易所會在保證金耗盡之前就強制平倉,不會等到虧 100%)就視為強平,所以「不設停損」時的大虧會集中在 −90% 再加上手續費/滑價(約 −91% ~ −93%),而不是 −100%;強平在表中歸類為「停損」。若遇跳空一開盤就穿過強平價,才會虧得更多(表中「跳空停損」的最小值)。

最佳指標組合(動態換股,整段歷史,全部軌道合併)

筆數平均%中位數%標準差%勝率%最小%P5P25P75P95最大%
3152+14.52+1.0668.4653.5-59.89-25.27-7.38+14.15+77.97+668.75

等距 2%(細節)

(-60, -58]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-60, -58]%7筆(0.2%)(-58, -56]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-58, -56]%0筆(0.0%)(-56, -54]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-56, -54]%0筆(0.0%)(-54, -52]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-54, -52]%0筆(0.0%)(-52, -50]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-52, -50]%0筆(0.0%)(-50, -48]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-50, -48]%7筆(0.2%)(-48, -46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-48, -46]%0筆(0.0%)(-46, -44]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-46, -44]%0筆(0.0%)(-44, -42]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-44, -42]%7筆(0.2%)(-42, -40]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-42, -40]%0筆(0.0%)(-40, -38]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-40, -38]%7筆(0.2%)(-38, -36]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-38, -36]%7筆(0.2%)(-36, -34]%: 21筆 (0.67%)(-36, -34]%21筆(0.7%)(-34, -32]%: 21筆 (0.67%)(-34, -32]%21筆(0.7%)(-32, -30]%: 29筆 (0.92%)(-32, -30]%29筆(0.9%)(-30, -28]%: 21筆 (0.67%)(-30, -28]%21筆(0.7%)(-28, -26]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(-28, -26]%14筆(0.4%)(-26, -24]%: 28筆 (0.89%)(-26, -24]%28筆(0.9%)(-24, -22]%: 38筆 (1.21%)(-24, -22]%38筆(1.2%)(-22, -20]%: 50筆 (1.59%)(-22, -20]%50筆(1.6%)(-20, -18]%: 22筆 (0.70%)(-20, -18]%22筆(0.7%)(-18, -16]%: 36筆 (1.14%)(-18, -16]%36筆(1.1%)(-16, -14]%: 88筆 (2.79%)(-16, -14]%88筆(2.8%)(-14, -12]%: 108筆 (3.43%)(-14, -12]%108筆(3.4%)(-12, -10]%: 128筆 (4.06%)(-12, -10]%128筆(4.1%)(-10, -8]%: 127筆 (4.03%)(-10, -8]%127筆(4.0%)(-8, -6]%: 115筆 (3.65%)(-8, -6]%115筆(3.6%)(-6, -4]%: 192筆 (6.09%)(-6, -4]%192筆(6.1%)(-4, -2]%: 191筆 (6.06%)(-4, -2]%191筆(6.1%)(-2, 0]%: 202筆 (6.41%)(-2, 0]%202筆(6.4%)(0, 2]%: 184筆 (5.84%)(0, 2]%184筆(5.8%)(2, 4]%: 163筆 (5.17%)(2, 4]%163筆(5.2%)(4, 6]%: 133筆 (4.22%)(4, 6]%133筆(4.2%)(6, 8]%: 115筆 (3.65%)(6, 8]%115筆(3.6%)(8, 10]%: 111筆 (3.52%)(8, 10]%111筆(3.5%)(10, 12]%: 122筆 (3.87%)(10, 12]%122筆(3.9%)(12, 14]%: 56筆 (1.78%)(12, 14]%56筆(1.8%)(14, 16]%: 100筆 (3.17%)(14, 16]%100筆(3.2%)(16, 18]%: 35筆 (1.11%)(16, 18]%35筆(1.1%)(18, 20]%: 78筆 (2.47%)(18, 20]%78筆(2.5%)(20, 22]%: 42筆 (1.33%)(20, 22]%42筆(1.3%)(22, 24]%: 29筆 (0.92%)(22, 24]%29筆(0.9%)(24, 26]%: 28筆 (0.89%)(24, 26]%28筆(0.9%)(26, 28]%: 35筆 (1.11%)(26, 28]%35筆(1.1%)(28, 30]%: 35筆 (1.11%)(28, 30]%35筆(1.1%)(30, 32]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(30, 32]%14筆(0.4%)(32, 34]%: 28筆 (0.89%)(32, 34]%28筆(0.9%)(34, 36]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(34, 36]%14筆(0.4%)(36, 38]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(36, 38]%14筆(0.4%)(38, 40]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(38, 40]%14筆(0.4%)(40, 42]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(40, 42]%7筆(0.2%)(42, 44]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(42, 44]%14筆(0.4%)(44, 46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(44, 46]%0筆(0.0%)(46, 48]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(46, 48]%14筆(0.4%)(48, 50]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(48, 50]%14筆(0.4%)(50, 52]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(50, 52]%7筆(0.2%)(52, 54]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(52, 54]%7筆(0.2%)(54, 56]%: 21筆 (0.67%)(54, 56]%21筆(0.7%)(56, 58]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(56, 58]%14筆(0.4%)(58, 60]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(58, 60]%7筆(0.2%)(60, 62]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(60, 62]%7筆(0.2%)(62, 64]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(62, 64]%14筆(0.4%)(64, 66]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(64, 66]%7筆(0.2%)(66, 68]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(66, 68]%7筆(0.2%)(68, 70]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(68, 70]%0筆(0.0%)(70, 72]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(70, 72]%7筆(0.2%)(72, 74]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(72, 74]%7筆(0.2%)(74, 76]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(74, 76]%7筆(0.2%)(76, 78]%: 21筆 (0.67%)(76, 78]%21筆(0.7%)(78, 80]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(78, 80]%0筆(0.0%)(80, 82]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(80, 82]%14筆(0.4%)(82, 84]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(82, 84]%7筆(0.2%)(84, 86]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(84, 86]%0筆(0.0%)(86, 88]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(86, 88]%0筆(0.0%)(88, 90]%: 21筆 (0.67%)(88, 90]%21筆(0.7%)(90, 92]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(90, 92]%14筆(0.4%)(92, 94]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(92, 94]%7筆(0.2%)(94, 96]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(94, 96]%7筆(0.2%)(96, 98]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(96, 98]%7筆(0.2%)(98, 100]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(98, 100]%0筆(0.0%)(100, 102]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(100, 102]%0筆(0.0%)(102, 104]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(102, 104]%0筆(0.0%)(104, 106]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(104, 106]%0筆(0.0%)(106, 108]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(106, 108]%0筆(0.0%)(108, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(108, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 112]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 112]%0筆(0.0%)(112, 114]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(112, 114]%0筆(0.0%)(114, 116]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(114, 116]%0筆(0.0%)(116, 118]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(116, 118]%0筆(0.0%)(118, 120]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(118, 120]%0筆(0.0%)(120, 122]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(120, 122]%0筆(0.0%)(122, 124]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(122, 124]%0筆(0.0%)(124, 126]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(124, 126]%0筆(0.0%)(126, 128]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(126, 128]%7筆(0.2%)(128, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(128, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 132]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 132]%0筆(0.0%)(132, 134]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(132, 134]%0筆(0.0%)(134, 136]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(134, 136]%0筆(0.0%)(136, 138]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(136, 138]%0筆(0.0%)(138, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(138, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 142]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 142]%0筆(0.0%)(142, 144]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(142, 144]%0筆(0.0%)(144, 146]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(144, 146]%0筆(0.0%)(146, 148]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(146, 148]%0筆(0.0%)(148, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(148, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 152]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 152]%0筆(0.0%)(152, 154]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(152, 154]%0筆(0.0%)(154, 156]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(154, 156]%0筆(0.0%)(156, 158]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(156, 158]%7筆(0.2%)(158, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(158, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 162]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 162]%0筆(0.0%)(162, 164]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(162, 164]%0筆(0.0%)(164, 166]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(164, 166]%0筆(0.0%)(166, 168]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(166, 168]%0筆(0.0%)(168, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(168, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 172]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 172]%0筆(0.0%)(172, 174]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(172, 174]%0筆(0.0%)(174, 176]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(174, 176]%0筆(0.0%)(176, 178]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(176, 178]%0筆(0.0%)(178, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(178, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 182]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 182]%0筆(0.0%)(182, 184]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(182, 184]%0筆(0.0%)(184, 186]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(184, 186]%0筆(0.0%)(186, 188]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(186, 188]%0筆(0.0%)(188, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(188, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 192]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 192]%0筆(0.0%)(192, 194]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(192, 194]%0筆(0.0%)(194, 196]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(194, 196]%7筆(0.2%)(196, 198]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(196, 198]%0筆(0.0%)(198, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(198, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 202]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 202]%0筆(0.0%)(202, 204]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(202, 204]%0筆(0.0%)(204, 206]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(204, 206]%0筆(0.0%)(206, 208]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(206, 208]%0筆(0.0%)(208, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(208, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 212]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 212]%0筆(0.0%)(212, 214]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(212, 214]%0筆(0.0%)(214, 216]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(214, 216]%0筆(0.0%)(216, 218]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(216, 218]%0筆(0.0%)(218, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(218, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 222]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 222]%0筆(0.0%)(222, 224]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(222, 224]%0筆(0.0%)(224, 226]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(224, 226]%7筆(0.2%)(226, 228]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(226, 228]%0筆(0.0%)(228, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(228, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 232]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 232]%0筆(0.0%)(232, 234]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(232, 234]%0筆(0.0%)(234, 236]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(234, 236]%0筆(0.0%)(236, 238]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(236, 238]%0筆(0.0%)(238, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(238, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 242]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 242]%0筆(0.0%)(242, 244]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(242, 244]%0筆(0.0%)(244, 246]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(244, 246]%0筆(0.0%)(246, 248]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(246, 248]%0筆(0.0%)(248, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(248, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 252]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 252]%0筆(0.0%)(252, 254]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(252, 254]%0筆(0.0%)(254, 256]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(254, 256]%7筆(0.2%)(256, 258]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(256, 258]%0筆(0.0%)(258, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(258, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 262]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 262]%0筆(0.0%)(262, 264]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(262, 264]%0筆(0.0%)(264, 266]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(264, 266]%0筆(0.0%)(266, 268]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(266, 268]%0筆(0.0%)(268, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(268, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 272]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 272]%0筆(0.0%)(272, 274]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(272, 274]%0筆(0.0%)(274, 276]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(274, 276]%0筆(0.0%)(276, 278]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(276, 278]%0筆(0.0%)(278, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(278, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 282]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 282]%0筆(0.0%)(282, 284]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(282, 284]%0筆(0.0%)(284, 286]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(284, 286]%0筆(0.0%)(286, 288]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(286, 288]%0筆(0.0%)(288, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(288, 290]%0筆(0.0%)(290, 292]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(290, 292]%0筆(0.0%)(292, 294]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(292, 294]%0筆(0.0%)(294, 296]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(294, 296]%0筆(0.0%)(296, 298]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(296, 298]%0筆(0.0%)> 298%: 42筆 (1.33%)> 298%42筆(1.3%)

等距 10%(總覽)

(-60, -50]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-60, -50]%7筆(0.2%)(-50, -40]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(-50, -40]%14筆(0.4%)(-40, -30]%: 85筆 (2.70%)(-40, -30]%85筆(2.7%)(-30, -20]%: 151筆 (4.79%)(-30, -20]%151筆(4.8%)(-20, -10]%: 382筆 (12.12%)(-20, -10]%382筆(12.1%)(-10, 0]%: 827筆 (26.24%)(-10, 0]%827筆(26.2%)(0, 10]%: 706筆 (22.40%)(0, 10]%706筆(22.4%)(10, 20]%: 391筆 (12.40%)(10, 20]%391筆(12.4%)(20, 30]%: 169筆 (5.36%)(20, 30]%169筆(5.4%)(30, 40]%: 84筆 (2.66%)(30, 40]%84筆(2.7%)(40, 50]%: 49筆 (1.55%)(40, 50]%49筆(1.6%)(50, 60]%: 56筆 (1.78%)(50, 60]%56筆(1.8%)(60, 70]%: 35筆 (1.11%)(60, 70]%35筆(1.1%)(70, 80]%: 42筆 (1.33%)(70, 80]%42筆(1.3%)(80, 90]%: 42筆 (1.33%)(80, 90]%42筆(1.3%)(90, 100]%: 35筆 (1.11%)(90, 100]%35筆(1.1%)(100, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(100, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 120]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 120]%0筆(0.0%)(120, 130]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(120, 130]%7筆(0.2%)(130, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 160]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(150, 160]%7筆(0.2%)(160, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 200]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(190, 200]%7筆(0.2%)(200, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 230]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(220, 230]%7筆(0.2%)(230, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 260]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(250, 260]%7筆(0.2%)(260, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 290]%0筆(0.0%)> 290%: 42筆 (1.33%)> 290%42筆(1.3%)
資金曲線年化估算(實際複利路徑,幾何平均):+444.0%/年
依據:7 條互不重疊軌道,實際經過約 1779 天(約 4.9 年), 期末倍數跨軌道取幾何平均 = 3854.31x,換算年化 +444.0%。
這個數字比下方「各期間報酬表」的算術平均更貼近實際:算術平均會被少數爆賺的軌道拉高 (例如某一軌 50 倍、另一軌只有 1.3 倍,算術平均會被前者拉走),幾何平均才代表「典型一條軌道」的真實經驗, 也是唯一真正對應「一筆錢從頭到尾連續投入」這個情境的算法。

多軌資金曲線(查驗複利風險用)

把整段歷史攤開,畫出 7 條互不重疊、各自獨立複利的資金軌道(起始都是 1.0,y 軸是對數座標, 因為複利成長可以跨好幾個數量級,線性座標會看不出早期的細節)。這張圖用來直接檢查「不停損(或停損很鬆)時, 會不會有某一軌被少數重摔的標的拖累,一路很久墊在低點沒有回本」——如果真的發生,會在圖上看到某條線大幅落後其他條、 長時間貼在低檔;如果只是像本頁其他數字顯示的那樣穩定成長,代表不是靠犧牲少數軌道去平均出來的, 而是因為每一筆交易本身就是「當天全部標的等權重」的組合報酬,單一標的重摔只會拉低當天組合報酬的一小部分 (例如池子裡 40 檔,一檔摔 −100% 只讓當天組合報酬掉約 −2.5 個百分點),不會讓整條資金軌道腰斬。 目前最差的一軌是第 6 軌,期末倍數 2565.15x; 全部軌道中最低點是第 2 軌在 2022-07-14,掉到 0.61x。
各軌最低點:第1軌 2022-07-14 0.62x;第2軌 2022-07-14 0.61x;第3軌 2022-07-14 0.64x;第4軌 2022-07-14 0.65x;第5軌 2022-07-14 0.63x;第6軌 2022-07-14 0.62x;第7軌 2022-07-14 0.61x。

0.5x1x2x5x10x20x50x100x200x500x1000x2021-11-192022-09-122023-07-072024-04-292025-02-212025-12-152026-10-09第1軌 期末=3046.04x第1軌 3046.04x第2軌 期末=4822.05x第2軌 4822.05x第3軌 期末=4602.57x第3軌 4602.57x第4軌 期末=4569.85x第4軌 4569.85x第5軌 期末=2745.37x第5軌 2745.37x第6軌 期末=2565.15x第6軌 2565.15x第7軌 期末=5808.27x第7軌 5808.27x

選中交易的進出場目視檢查(最佳指標組合+最佳操作方式)

動態換股模式尚未支援進出場時線圖。

選股規則=動能/均線乖離/RSI 三個指標在同一訊號日的百分位排名加權平均,指標窗格配合持有期換算,跟操作方式(槓桿/停損/停利)完全脫鉤, 所以指標好壞與操作方式好壞分開判斷。權重與 K 用「排名分數」(依資金模式,見上方)窮舉搜尋;試驗組數愈多不代表愈可靠, 請對照「預設等權重組合」與「全買」兩個基準,不要只看單一數字。本頁不構成投資建議。