InvestMarket 指標回測(固定最佳操作方式,搜尋選股指標・動態換股模式)

本次回測參數(搜尋範圍 → 找到的最佳值;沒有寫「搜尋範圍」的欄位都是固定值,不搜尋)
・操作方式(固定值,沿用①頁「操作方式回測」最佳,不在這頁搜尋):槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)
・選股指標權重搜尋範圍:動能=0~1(範圍)、均線乖離=0~1(範圍)、RSI(強勢)=0~1(範圍)
  → 找到最佳組合:動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.6 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
・每日取前 K 名:K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5
・持有方式:動態換股;幾日未進前K名就換股,搜尋範圍:x∈4日 → 找到最佳 x=4日
  跌出第幾名就換股,搜尋範圍:y∈第11名 → 找到最佳 y=第11名
  x/y 條件關係(固定值,不搜尋):OR,任一成立即可

產生時間:2026-10-10 16:05:50 台灣時間(花費 16分11秒)
固定操作方式:槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)(來源:操作方式回測最佳)
持有方式:動態換股(依排名持續監控,無固定到期);找到最佳=連續 4 日未進前K名,或排名跌出第 11 名,就換成當天前K名裡還沒被持有的最高排名標的;兩條件關係:OR,任一成立即可(固定值,不搜尋;x/y 的搜尋範圍見上方「本次回測參數」)
每日取排名前 K 名等權重(K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5);標的 40 檔;進場樣本 1236(訊號日間隔 1 日曆日,沿用操作方式回測); 指標窗格 10 個交易日(配合持有 14 日曆日換算,約 5/7 比例);期間共切 6 段、全部段都評估(沿用操作方式回測的期間數與切法,三頁一致,數字才能互相比較;純公式規則不需要訓練,不用留暖身期) ;搜尋 15 組權重×K×x×y(動態換股貝氏搜尋(optuna-tpe,15/15 組))

沿用操作方式回測的資金模式與排名目標(口徑一致才能比較「選股」vs「全買」):資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入)

指標回測控制頁 ・ 操作方式回測 ・ 每日排名

✅ 搜尋出的權重勝過預設等權重組合(判定口徑=複利:資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入))
★判定口徑:複利 對照:固定資金口徑
組合年化 %
(資金週轉,
排名依據)
平均實際
持有日
每筆等效複利率
(資金曲線口徑) %
最差期間
min_pc %
年化固定資金 %每筆平均
fx_avg %
最差期間
fx_min %
最佳指標組合+263.520.7+7.596-0.490+237.3+13.459-2.992
預設等權重組合(三指標各1/3、前3名)+281.117.1+6.477-0.249+273.7+12.840-0.244
(最佳組合同時勝過預設指標組合)
使用組合:動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.6 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
每日前 5 名
3 個指標都是純技術規則(不是訓練出來的模型):動能=10個交易日報酬率;均線乖離=短均(10日)/長均(8倍)-1; RSI(強勢)=Wilder平滑 RSI 取「數值高」方向。權重與 K 用同一批評估期間窮舉搜尋出來(不是訓練模型,不需要 walk-forward,但權重/K 的選擇本身 看過全部評估期間的資料,跟操作方式回測選最佳參數一樣有事後選擇偏誤,正式使用前建議做樣本外驗證)。
「預設等權重組合」=固定基準線:三個指標權重各 1/3、每日前 3 名,不經搜尋;用來看「搜尋出來的權重」有沒有比不搜尋更好。

最佳組合:各期間(out-of-sample)

期間(訊號日)日曆日數每筆等效複利率 %選中標的單筆平均%(權益,算術) 整段期間報酬 %
(各路徑複利後平均)
固定資金每筆平均 %
(不複利)
固定資金整段累加 %每條路徑平均幾筆候選訊號日數軌道獲利比例
2021-11-05~2022-08-31300-0.490-2.992-26.98-2.992-191.56430%
2022-09-01~2023-06-27300+0.434+1.501+30.05+1.505+91.060.73100%
2023-06-28~2024-04-22300+1.815+15.851+250.18+15.853+1104.369.73100%
2024-04-23~2025-02-16300+1.938+16.206+295.68+16.206+1161.471.73100%
2025-02-17~2025-12-13300+2.904+22.366+401.56+22.369+1259.956.33100%
2025-12-14~2026-10-10301+2.366+27.815+316.34+27.815+1696.7613100%
全部期間(複利/累加)1801+1.476+27378.13+13.359+5122.0383.418

前 12 名指標組合

本次總共評估了 16 組指標組合(含 1 組預設等權重基準對照)。搜尋結果常是「高原分佈」——很多組合報酬相近, 但也有一些組合明顯較差甚至虧損;下面先看前12名,再往下看「後5名」對照,有助於判斷要避開哪些指標權重區域,不要只看前幾名就以為隨便一組都差不多好。

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
1每日前 5 名+7.596+263.520.7-0.490+1.488+13.459x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.6 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
2每日前 5 名+7.556+455.315.5+0.046+1.341+10.328x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
3每日前 5 名+7.401+301.418.8-0.469+1.536+11.534x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
4每日前 5 名+7.213+309.718.0-0.535+1.494+12.859x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
5每日前 5 名+7.143+537.613.6-0.235+1.237+9.842x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.2
6每日前 5 名+6.730+363.715.5+0.176+1.450+10.382x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.1 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.6
7每日前 5 名+6.477+281.117.1-0.249+1.539+12.840x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
8每日前 5 名+6.473+564.612.1+0.248+1.434+9.504x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.0 + RSI(強勢)×0.6
9每日前 5 名+6.416+276.417.1-0.142+1.436+12.040x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
10每日前 5 名+5.956+215.218.4-0.570+1.499+12.540x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.1 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
11每日前 5 名+5.845+360.813.6+0.021+1.290+10.026x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
12每日前 5 名+5.306+134.922.1-0.526+0.816+13.422x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.1

後 4 名指標組合(對照用,避開這些區域)

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
13每日前 5 名+5.230+259.614.5-0.033+1.359+9.271x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
14每日前 5 名+3.346+49.729.8-1.973+1.524+14.585x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.9 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
15每日前 5 名+3.317+70.922.2-1.186+1.179+15.773x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.6 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
16每日前 5 名+1.734+34.521.1-0.676+0.797+10.961x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.0

報酬率分佈(單筆交易,查錯用)

每一筆是「一個標的、一個進場日」的實際模擬結果(權益%:已含槓桿、手續費與滑價,持有最長 21 日曆日)。用來檢查有沒有不合理的地方(例如停損筆的報酬遠超過停損設定、到期筆全部為正等)。(動態換股模式:每筆代表一次真正的排名換股或價格出場,不含期間結束時的強制標記;共 2658 筆。)
強平的位置:價格跌到權益虧損約 90%(=1 ÷ 槓桿 × 0.9,交易所會在保證金耗盡之前就強制平倉,不會等到虧 100%)就視為強平,所以「不設停損」時的大虧會集中在 −90% 再加上手續費/滑價(約 −91% ~ −93%),而不是 −100%;強平在表中歸類為「停損」。若遇跳空一開盤就穿過強平價,才會虧得更多(表中「跳空停損」的最小值)。

最佳指標組合(動態換股,整段歷史,全部軌道合併)

筆數平均%中位數%標準差%勝率%最小%P5P25P75P95最大%
2658+14.52-1.3575.0246.0-81.37-29.32-8.52+12.96+77.70+626.56

等距 2%(細節)

(-82, -80]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-82, -80]%7筆(0.3%)(-80, -78]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-80, -78]%0筆(0.0%)(-78, -76]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-78, -76]%0筆(0.0%)(-76, -74]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-76, -74]%0筆(0.0%)(-74, -72]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-74, -72]%0筆(0.0%)(-72, -70]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-72, -70]%0筆(0.0%)(-70, -68]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-70, -68]%0筆(0.0%)(-68, -66]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-68, -66]%0筆(0.0%)(-66, -64]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-66, -64]%0筆(0.0%)(-64, -62]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-64, -62]%7筆(0.3%)(-62, -60]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-62, -60]%0筆(0.0%)(-60, -58]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-60, -58]%0筆(0.0%)(-58, -56]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-58, -56]%0筆(0.0%)(-56, -54]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-56, -54]%7筆(0.3%)(-54, -52]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-54, -52]%0筆(0.0%)(-52, -50]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-52, -50]%7筆(0.3%)(-50, -48]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(-50, -48]%14筆(0.5%)(-48, -46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-48, -46]%0筆(0.0%)(-46, -44]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-46, -44]%0筆(0.0%)(-44, -42]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-44, -42]%7筆(0.3%)(-42, -40]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-42, -40]%7筆(0.3%)(-40, -38]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-40, -38]%7筆(0.3%)(-38, -36]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-38, -36]%0筆(0.0%)(-36, -34]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(-36, -34]%14筆(0.5%)(-34, -32]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(-34, -32]%14筆(0.5%)(-32, -30]%: 35筆 (1.32%)(-32, -30]%35筆(1.3%)(-30, -28]%: 28筆 (1.05%)(-30, -28]%28筆(1.1%)(-28, -26]%: 28筆 (1.05%)(-28, -26]%28筆(1.1%)(-26, -24]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-26, -24]%7筆(0.3%)(-24, -22]%: 8筆 (0.30%)(-24, -22]%8筆(0.3%)(-22, -20]%: 31筆 (1.17%)(-22, -20]%31筆(1.2%)(-20, -18]%: 50筆 (1.88%)(-20, -18]%50筆(1.9%)(-18, -16]%: 77筆 (2.90%)(-18, -16]%77筆(2.9%)(-16, -14]%: 38筆 (1.43%)(-16, -14]%38筆(1.4%)(-14, -12]%: 85筆 (3.20%)(-14, -12]%85筆(3.2%)(-12, -10]%: 104筆 (3.91%)(-12, -10]%104筆(3.9%)(-10, -8]%: 147筆 (5.53%)(-10, -8]%147筆(5.5%)(-8, -6]%: 171筆 (6.43%)(-8, -6]%171筆(6.4%)(-6, -4]%: 170筆 (6.40%)(-6, -4]%170筆(6.4%)(-4, -2]%: 208筆 (7.83%)(-4, -2]%208筆(7.8%)(-2, 0]%: 158筆 (5.94%)(-2, 0]%158筆(5.9%)(0, 2]%: 134筆 (5.04%)(0, 2]%134筆(5.0%)(2, 4]%: 85筆 (3.20%)(2, 4]%85筆(3.2%)(4, 6]%: 105筆 (3.95%)(4, 6]%105筆(4.0%)(6, 8]%: 70筆 (2.63%)(6, 8]%70筆(2.6%)(8, 10]%: 64筆 (2.41%)(8, 10]%64筆(2.4%)(10, 12]%: 78筆 (2.93%)(10, 12]%78筆(2.9%)(12, 14]%: 56筆 (2.11%)(12, 14]%56筆(2.1%)(14, 16]%: 19筆 (0.71%)(14, 16]%19筆(0.7%)(16, 18]%: 57筆 (2.14%)(16, 18]%57筆(2.1%)(18, 20]%: 64筆 (2.41%)(18, 20]%64筆(2.4%)(20, 22]%: 28筆 (1.05%)(20, 22]%28筆(1.1%)(22, 24]%: 42筆 (1.58%)(22, 24]%42筆(1.6%)(24, 26]%: 63筆 (2.37%)(24, 26]%63筆(2.4%)(26, 28]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(26, 28]%14筆(0.5%)(28, 30]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(28, 30]%0筆(0.0%)(30, 32]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(30, 32]%14筆(0.5%)(32, 34]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(32, 34]%14筆(0.5%)(34, 36]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(34, 36]%14筆(0.5%)(36, 38]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(36, 38]%14筆(0.5%)(38, 40]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(38, 40]%0筆(0.0%)(40, 42]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(40, 42]%14筆(0.5%)(42, 44]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(42, 44]%0筆(0.0%)(44, 46]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(44, 46]%7筆(0.3%)(46, 48]%: 42筆 (1.58%)(46, 48]%42筆(1.6%)(48, 50]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(48, 50]%0筆(0.0%)(50, 52]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(50, 52]%7筆(0.3%)(52, 54]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(52, 54]%7筆(0.3%)(54, 56]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(54, 56]%14筆(0.5%)(56, 58]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(56, 58]%0筆(0.0%)(58, 60]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(58, 60]%7筆(0.3%)(60, 62]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(60, 62]%0筆(0.0%)(62, 64]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(62, 64]%14筆(0.5%)(64, 66]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(64, 66]%7筆(0.3%)(66, 68]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(66, 68]%14筆(0.5%)(68, 70]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(68, 70]%7筆(0.3%)(70, 72]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(70, 72]%0筆(0.0%)(72, 74]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(72, 74]%0筆(0.0%)(74, 76]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(74, 76]%7筆(0.3%)(76, 78]%: 21筆 (0.79%)(76, 78]%21筆(0.8%)(78, 80]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(78, 80]%0筆(0.0%)(80, 82]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(80, 82]%0筆(0.0%)(82, 84]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(82, 84]%0筆(0.0%)(84, 86]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(84, 86]%7筆(0.3%)(86, 88]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(86, 88]%0筆(0.0%)(88, 90]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(88, 90]%0筆(0.0%)(90, 92]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(90, 92]%7筆(0.3%)(92, 94]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(92, 94]%7筆(0.3%)(94, 96]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(94, 96]%0筆(0.0%)(96, 98]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(96, 98]%0筆(0.0%)(98, 100]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(98, 100]%0筆(0.0%)(100, 102]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(100, 102]%7筆(0.3%)(102, 104]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(102, 104]%0筆(0.0%)(104, 106]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(104, 106]%0筆(0.0%)(106, 108]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(106, 108]%0筆(0.0%)(108, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(108, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 112]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 112]%0筆(0.0%)(112, 114]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(112, 114]%0筆(0.0%)(114, 116]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(114, 116]%0筆(0.0%)(116, 118]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(116, 118]%0筆(0.0%)(118, 120]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(118, 120]%0筆(0.0%)(120, 122]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(120, 122]%0筆(0.0%)(122, 124]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(122, 124]%0筆(0.0%)(124, 126]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(124, 126]%0筆(0.0%)(126, 128]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(126, 128]%0筆(0.0%)(128, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(128, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 132]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 132]%0筆(0.0%)(132, 134]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(132, 134]%0筆(0.0%)(134, 136]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(134, 136]%14筆(0.5%)(136, 138]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(136, 138]%0筆(0.0%)(138, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(138, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 142]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 142]%0筆(0.0%)(142, 144]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(142, 144]%0筆(0.0%)(144, 146]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(144, 146]%0筆(0.0%)(146, 148]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(146, 148]%0筆(0.0%)(148, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(148, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 152]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 152]%0筆(0.0%)(152, 154]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(152, 154]%0筆(0.0%)(154, 156]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(154, 156]%0筆(0.0%)(156, 158]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(156, 158]%7筆(0.3%)(158, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(158, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 162]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 162]%0筆(0.0%)(162, 164]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(162, 164]%0筆(0.0%)(164, 166]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(164, 166]%7筆(0.3%)(166, 168]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(166, 168]%0筆(0.0%)(168, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(168, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 172]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 172]%0筆(0.0%)(172, 174]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(172, 174]%0筆(0.0%)(174, 176]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(174, 176]%0筆(0.0%)(176, 178]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(176, 178]%0筆(0.0%)(178, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(178, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 182]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(180, 182]%7筆(0.3%)(182, 184]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(182, 184]%0筆(0.0%)(184, 186]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(184, 186]%0筆(0.0%)(186, 188]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(186, 188]%0筆(0.0%)(188, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(188, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 192]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 192]%0筆(0.0%)(192, 194]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(192, 194]%0筆(0.0%)(194, 196]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(194, 196]%0筆(0.0%)(196, 198]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(196, 198]%0筆(0.0%)(198, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(198, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 202]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 202]%0筆(0.0%)(202, 204]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(202, 204]%0筆(0.0%)(204, 206]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(204, 206]%0筆(0.0%)(206, 208]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(206, 208]%0筆(0.0%)(208, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(208, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 212]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 212]%0筆(0.0%)(212, 214]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(212, 214]%0筆(0.0%)(214, 216]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(214, 216]%0筆(0.0%)(216, 218]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(216, 218]%0筆(0.0%)(218, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(218, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 222]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 222]%0筆(0.0%)(222, 224]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(222, 224]%0筆(0.0%)(224, 226]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(224, 226]%0筆(0.0%)(226, 228]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(226, 228]%0筆(0.0%)(228, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(228, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 232]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 232]%0筆(0.0%)(232, 234]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(232, 234]%0筆(0.0%)(234, 236]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(234, 236]%0筆(0.0%)(236, 238]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(236, 238]%0筆(0.0%)(238, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(238, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 242]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 242]%0筆(0.0%)(242, 244]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(242, 244]%0筆(0.0%)(244, 246]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(244, 246]%0筆(0.0%)(246, 248]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(246, 248]%0筆(0.0%)(248, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(248, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 252]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 252]%0筆(0.0%)(252, 254]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(252, 254]%0筆(0.0%)(254, 256]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(254, 256]%0筆(0.0%)(256, 258]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(256, 258]%0筆(0.0%)(258, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(258, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 262]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 262]%0筆(0.0%)(262, 264]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(262, 264]%0筆(0.0%)(264, 266]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(264, 266]%0筆(0.0%)(266, 268]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(266, 268]%0筆(0.0%)(268, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(268, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 272]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 272]%0筆(0.0%)(272, 274]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(272, 274]%0筆(0.0%)(274, 276]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(274, 276]%0筆(0.0%)(276, 278]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(276, 278]%0筆(0.0%)(278, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(278, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 282]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 282]%0筆(0.0%)(282, 284]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(282, 284]%0筆(0.0%)(284, 286]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(284, 286]%0筆(0.0%)(286, 288]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(286, 288]%0筆(0.0%)(288, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(288, 290]%0筆(0.0%)(290, 292]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(290, 292]%0筆(0.0%)(292, 294]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(292, 294]%0筆(0.0%)(294, 296]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(294, 296]%0筆(0.0%)(296, 298]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(296, 298]%0筆(0.0%)> 298%: 56筆 (2.11%)> 298%56筆(2.1%)

等距 10%(總覽)

(-90, -80]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-90, -80]%7筆(0.3%)(-80, -70]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-80, -70]%0筆(0.0%)(-70, -60]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-70, -60]%7筆(0.3%)(-60, -50]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(-60, -50]%14筆(0.5%)(-50, -40]%: 28筆 (1.05%)(-50, -40]%28筆(1.1%)(-40, -30]%: 70筆 (2.63%)(-40, -30]%70筆(2.6%)(-30, -20]%: 102筆 (3.84%)(-30, -20]%102筆(3.8%)(-20, -10]%: 354筆 (13.32%)(-20, -10]%354筆(13.3%)(-10, 0]%: 854筆 (32.13%)(-10, 0]%854筆(32.1%)(0, 10]%: 458筆 (17.23%)(0, 10]%458筆(17.2%)(10, 20]%: 274筆 (10.31%)(10, 20]%274筆(10.3%)(20, 30]%: 147筆 (5.53%)(20, 30]%147筆(5.5%)(30, 40]%: 56筆 (2.11%)(30, 40]%56筆(2.1%)(40, 50]%: 63筆 (2.37%)(40, 50]%63筆(2.4%)(50, 60]%: 35筆 (1.32%)(50, 60]%35筆(1.3%)(60, 70]%: 42筆 (1.58%)(60, 70]%42筆(1.6%)(70, 80]%: 28筆 (1.05%)(70, 80]%28筆(1.1%)(80, 90]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(80, 90]%7筆(0.3%)(90, 100]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(90, 100]%14筆(0.5%)(100, 110]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(100, 110]%7筆(0.3%)(110, 120]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 120]%0筆(0.0%)(120, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(120, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 140]%: 14筆 (0.53%)(130, 140]%14筆(0.5%)(140, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 160]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(150, 160]%7筆(0.3%)(160, 170]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(160, 170]%7筆(0.3%)(170, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 190]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(180, 190]%7筆(0.3%)(190, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 290]%0筆(0.0%)> 290%: 56筆 (2.11%)> 290%56筆(2.1%)
資金曲線年化估算(實際複利路徑,幾何平均):+237.9%/年
依據:7 條互不重疊軌道,實際經過約 1785 天(約 4.9 年), 期末倍數跨軌道取幾何平均 = 386.28x,換算年化 +237.9%。
這個數字比下方「各期間報酬表」的算術平均更貼近實際:算術平均會被少數爆賺的軌道拉高 (例如某一軌 50 倍、另一軌只有 1.3 倍,算術平均會被前者拉走),幾何平均才代表「典型一條軌道」的真實經驗, 也是唯一真正對應「一筆錢從頭到尾連續投入」這個情境的算法。

多軌資金曲線(查驗複利風險用)

把整段歷史攤開,畫出 7 條互不重疊、各自獨立複利的資金軌道(起始都是 1.0,y 軸是對數座標, 因為複利成長可以跨好幾個數量級,線性座標會看不出早期的細節)。這張圖用來直接檢查「不停損(或停損很鬆)時, 會不會有某一軌被少數重摔的標的拖累,一路很久墊在低點沒有回本」——如果真的發生,會在圖上看到某條線大幅落後其他條、 長時間貼在低檔;如果只是像本頁其他數字顯示的那樣穩定成長,代表不是靠犧牲少數軌道去平均出來的, 而是因為每一筆交易本身就是「當天全部標的等權重」的組合報酬,單一標的重摔只會拉低當天組合報酬的一小部分 (例如池子裡 40 檔,一檔摔 −100% 只讓當天組合報酬掉約 −2.5 個百分點),不會讓整條資金軌道腰斬。 目前最差的一軌是第 5 軌,期末倍數 137.74x; 全部軌道中最低點是第 1 軌在 2022-09-07,掉到 0.54x。
各軌最低點:第1軌 2022-09-07 0.54x;第2軌 2022-09-07 0.56x;第3軌 2022-09-07 0.65x;第4軌 2022-09-07 0.65x;第5軌 2022-09-07 0.71x;第6軌 2022-09-07 0.66x;第7軌 2022-09-07 0.72x。

0.5x1x2x5x10x20x50x100x200x500x1000x2021-11-152022-09-092023-07-042024-04-272025-02-192025-12-142026-10-09第1軌 期末=517.08x第1軌 517.08x第2軌 期末=531.40x第2軌 531.40x第3軌 期末=627.61x第3軌 627.61x第4軌 期末=607.55x第4軌 607.55x第5軌 期末=137.74x第5軌 137.74x第6軌 期末=608.33x第6軌 608.33x第7軌 期末=146.19x第7軌 146.19x

選中交易的進出場目視檢查(最佳指標組合+最佳操作方式)

動態換股模式尚未支援進出場時線圖。

選股規則=動能/均線乖離/RSI 三個指標在同一訊號日的百分位排名加權平均,指標窗格配合持有期換算,跟操作方式(槓桿/停損/停利)完全脫鉤, 所以指標好壞與操作方式好壞分開判斷。權重與 K 用「排名分數」(依資金模式,見上方)窮舉搜尋;試驗組數愈多不代表愈可靠, 請對照「預設等權重組合」與「全買」兩個基準,不要只看單一數字。本頁不構成投資建議。