InvestMarket 指標回測(固定最佳操作方式,搜尋選股指標・動態換股模式)

本次回測參數(搜尋範圍 → 找到的最佳值;沒有寫「搜尋範圍」的欄位都是固定值,不搜尋)
・操作方式(固定值,沿用①頁「操作方式回測」最佳,不在這頁搜尋):槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)
・選股指標權重搜尋範圍:動能=0~1(範圍)、均線乖離=0~1(範圍)、RSI(強勢)=0~1(範圍)
  → 找到最佳組合:動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
・每日取前 K 名:K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5
・持有方式:動態換股;幾日未進前K名就換股,搜尋範圍:x∈4日 → 找到最佳 x=4日
  跌出第幾名就換股,搜尋範圍:y∈第11名 → 找到最佳 y=第11名
  x/y 條件關係(固定值,不搜尋):OR,任一成立即可

產生時間:2026-10-10 12:54:37 台灣時間(花費 15分52秒)
固定操作方式:槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)(來源:操作方式回測最佳)
持有方式:動態換股(依排名持續監控,無固定到期);找到最佳=連續 4 日未進前K名,或排名跌出第 11 名,就換成當天前K名裡還沒被持有的最高排名標的;兩條件關係:OR,任一成立即可(固定值,不搜尋;x/y 的搜尋範圍見上方「本次回測參數」)
每日取排名前 K 名等權重(K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5);標的 36 檔;進場樣本 1236(訊號日間隔 1 日曆日,沿用操作方式回測); 指標窗格 10 個交易日(配合持有 14 日曆日換算,約 5/7 比例);期間共切 6 段、全部段都評估(沿用操作方式回測的期間數與切法,三頁一致,數字才能互相比較;純公式規則不需要訓練,不用留暖身期) ;搜尋 15 組權重×K×x×y(動態換股貝氏搜尋(optuna-tpe,15/15 組))

沿用操作方式回測的資金模式與排名目標(口徑一致才能比較「選股」vs「全買」):資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入)

指標回測控制頁 ・ 操作方式回測 ・ 每日排名

✅ 搜尋出的權重勝過預設等權重組合(判定口徑=複利:資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入))
★判定口徑:複利 對照:固定資金口徑
組合年化 %
(資金週轉,
排名依據)
平均實際
持有日
每筆等效複利率
(資金曲線口徑) %
最差期間
min_pc %
年化固定資金 %每筆平均
fx_avg %
最差期間
fx_min %
最佳指標組合+318.719.8+8.055-0.597+264.8+14.328-2.769
預設等權重組合(三指標各1/3、前3名)+270.817.7+6.551-0.325+270.6+13.104-1.098
(最佳組合同時勝過預設指標組合)
使用組合:動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
每日前 5 名
3 個指標都是純技術規則(不是訓練出來的模型):動能=10個交易日報酬率;均線乖離=短均(10日)/長均(8倍)-1; RSI(強勢)=Wilder平滑 RSI 取「數值高」方向。權重與 K 用同一批評估期間窮舉搜尋出來(不是訓練模型,不需要 walk-forward,但權重/K 的選擇本身 看過全部評估期間的資料,跟操作方式回測選最佳參數一樣有事後選擇偏誤,正式使用前建議做樣本外驗證)。
「預設等權重組合」=固定基準線:三個指標權重各 1/3、每日前 3 名,不經搜尋;用來看「搜尋出來的權重」有沒有比不搜尋更好。

最佳組合:各期間(out-of-sample)

期間(訊號日)日曆日數每筆等效複利率 %選中標的單筆平均%(權益,算術) 整段期間報酬 %
(各路徑複利後平均)
固定資金每筆平均 %
(不複利)
固定資金整段累加 %每條路徑平均幾筆候選訊號日數軌道獲利比例
2021-11-05~2022-08-31300-0.597-2.766-32.09-2.769-178.964.730%
2022-09-01~2023-06-27300+0.424+3.427+34.10+3.430+237.669.33100%
2023-06-28~2024-04-22300+1.715+17.143+223.23+17.141+1182.9693100%
2024-04-23~2025-02-16300+2.007+15.899+329.38+15.900+1165.973.33100%
2025-02-17~2025-12-13300+3.641+27.643+754.97+27.643+1658.6603100%
2025-12-14~2026-10-10301+2.690+24.619+461.55+24.619+1600.3653100%
全部期間(複利/累加)1801+1.610+60581.46+14.120+5666.3401.318

前 12 名指標組合

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
1每日前 5 名+8.055+318.719.8-0.597+1.637+14.328x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
2每日前 5 名+7.835+301.619.8-0.562+1.495+14.369x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
3每日前 5 名+7.745+271.920.7-0.635+1.607+15.065x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
4每日前 5 名+7.641+668.613.2-0.036+1.520+9.630x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.0 + RSI(強勢)×0.6
5每日前 5 名+7.613+361.517.5-0.245+1.607+12.645x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
6每日前 5 名+7.580+519.314.6-0.299+1.477+11.448x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
7每日前 5 名+7.268+318.617.9-0.559+1.546+13.201x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
8每日前 5 名+7.152+398.215.7-0.080+1.431+11.545x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
9每日前 5 名+6.679+165.224.2-1.422+1.359+17.862x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
10每日前 5 名+6.551+270.817.7-0.325+1.560+13.104x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
11每日前 5 名+6.382+371.814.6-0.248+1.417+11.036x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.2
12每日前 5 名+6.132+164.422.3-0.610+1.601+17.338x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.6 + RSI(強勢)×0.4

報酬率分佈(單筆交易,查錯用)

每一筆是「一個標的、一個進場日」的實際模擬結果(權益%:已含槓桿、手續費與滑價,持有最長 20 日曆日)。用來檢查有沒有不合理的地方(例如停損筆的報酬遠超過停損設定、到期筆全部為正等)。(動態換股模式:每筆代表一次真正的排名換股或價格出場,不含期間結束時的強制標記;共 2761 筆。)
強平的位置:價格跌到權益虧損約 90%(=1 ÷ 槓桿 × 0.9,交易所會在保證金耗盡之前就強制平倉,不會等到虧 100%)就視為強平,所以「不設停損」時的大虧會集中在 −90% 再加上手續費/滑價(約 −91% ~ −93%),而不是 −100%;強平在表中歸類為「停損」。若遇跳空一開盤就穿過強平價,才會虧得更多(表中「跳空停損」的最小值)。

最佳指標組合(動態換股,整段歷史,全部軌道合併)

筆數平均%中位數%標準差%勝率%最小%P5P25P75P95最大%
2761+15.67+0.8169.1352.1-58.38-26.88-7.89+14.44+95.50+621.06

等距 2%(細節)

(-60, -58]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(-60, -58]%14筆(0.5%)(-58, -56]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-58, -56]%0筆(0.0%)(-56, -54]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-56, -54]%0筆(0.0%)(-54, -52]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-54, -52]%0筆(0.0%)(-52, -50]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-52, -50]%0筆(0.0%)(-50, -48]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-50, -48]%0筆(0.0%)(-48, -46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-48, -46]%0筆(0.0%)(-46, -44]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(-46, -44]%7筆(0.3%)(-44, -42]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(-44, -42]%7筆(0.3%)(-42, -40]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-42, -40]%0筆(0.0%)(-40, -38]%: 9筆 (0.33%)(-40, -38]%9筆(0.3%)(-38, -36]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(-38, -36]%7筆(0.3%)(-36, -34]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(-36, -34]%21筆(0.8%)(-34, -32]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(-34, -32]%21筆(0.8%)(-32, -30]%: 22筆 (0.80%)(-32, -30]%22筆(0.8%)(-30, -28]%: 12筆 (0.43%)(-30, -28]%12筆(0.4%)(-28, -26]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(-28, -26]%21筆(0.8%)(-26, -24]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(-26, -24]%21筆(0.8%)(-24, -22]%: 31筆 (1.12%)(-24, -22]%31筆(1.1%)(-22, -20]%: 36筆 (1.30%)(-22, -20]%36筆(1.3%)(-20, -18]%: 45筆 (1.63%)(-20, -18]%45筆(1.6%)(-18, -16]%: 61筆 (2.21%)(-18, -16]%61筆(2.2%)(-16, -14]%: 45筆 (1.63%)(-16, -14]%45筆(1.6%)(-14, -12]%: 79筆 (2.86%)(-14, -12]%79筆(2.9%)(-12, -10]%: 91筆 (3.30%)(-12, -10]%91筆(3.3%)(-10, -8]%: 134筆 (4.85%)(-10, -8]%134筆(4.9%)(-8, -6]%: 146筆 (5.29%)(-8, -6]%146筆(5.3%)(-6, -4]%: 155筆 (5.61%)(-6, -4]%155筆(5.6%)(-4, -2]%: 174筆 (6.30%)(-4, -2]%174筆(6.3%)(-2, 0]%: 164筆 (5.94%)(-2, 0]%164筆(5.9%)(0, 2]%: 130筆 (4.71%)(0, 2]%130筆(4.7%)(2, 4]%: 135筆 (4.89%)(2, 4]%135筆(4.9%)(4, 6]%: 113筆 (4.09%)(4, 6]%113筆(4.1%)(6, 8]%: 109筆 (3.95%)(6, 8]%109筆(3.9%)(8, 10]%: 61筆 (2.21%)(8, 10]%61筆(2.2%)(10, 12]%: 73筆 (2.64%)(10, 12]%73筆(2.6%)(12, 14]%: 110筆 (3.98%)(12, 14]%110筆(4.0%)(14, 16]%: 88筆 (3.19%)(14, 16]%88筆(3.2%)(16, 18]%: 43筆 (1.56%)(16, 18]%43筆(1.6%)(18, 20]%: 36筆 (1.30%)(18, 20]%36筆(1.3%)(20, 22]%: 56筆 (2.03%)(20, 22]%56筆(2.0%)(22, 24]%: 29筆 (1.05%)(22, 24]%29筆(1.1%)(24, 26]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(24, 26]%14筆(0.5%)(26, 28]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(26, 28]%21筆(0.8%)(28, 30]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(28, 30]%21筆(0.8%)(30, 32]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(30, 32]%21筆(0.8%)(32, 34]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(32, 34]%14筆(0.5%)(34, 36]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(34, 36]%21筆(0.8%)(36, 38]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(36, 38]%14筆(0.5%)(38, 40]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(38, 40]%14筆(0.5%)(40, 42]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(40, 42]%14筆(0.5%)(42, 44]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(42, 44]%7筆(0.3%)(44, 46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(44, 46]%0筆(0.0%)(46, 48]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(46, 48]%21筆(0.8%)(48, 50]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(48, 50]%0筆(0.0%)(50, 52]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(50, 52]%7筆(0.3%)(52, 54]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(52, 54]%0筆(0.0%)(54, 56]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(54, 56]%7筆(0.3%)(56, 58]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(56, 58]%14筆(0.5%)(58, 60]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(58, 60]%7筆(0.3%)(60, 62]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(60, 62]%0筆(0.0%)(62, 64]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(62, 64]%21筆(0.8%)(64, 66]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(64, 66]%7筆(0.3%)(66, 68]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(66, 68]%7筆(0.3%)(68, 70]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(68, 70]%0筆(0.0%)(70, 72]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(70, 72]%0筆(0.0%)(72, 74]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(72, 74]%7筆(0.3%)(74, 76]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(74, 76]%7筆(0.3%)(76, 78]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(76, 78]%14筆(0.5%)(78, 80]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(78, 80]%21筆(0.8%)(80, 82]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(80, 82]%0筆(0.0%)(82, 84]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(82, 84]%7筆(0.3%)(84, 86]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(84, 86]%0筆(0.0%)(86, 88]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(86, 88]%0筆(0.0%)(88, 90]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(88, 90]%0筆(0.0%)(90, 92]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(90, 92]%0筆(0.0%)(92, 94]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(92, 94]%0筆(0.0%)(94, 96]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(94, 96]%14筆(0.5%)(96, 98]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(96, 98]%0筆(0.0%)(98, 100]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(98, 100]%7筆(0.3%)(100, 102]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(100, 102]%14筆(0.5%)(102, 104]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(102, 104]%14筆(0.5%)(104, 106]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(104, 106]%0筆(0.0%)(106, 108]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(106, 108]%0筆(0.0%)(108, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(108, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 112]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 112]%0筆(0.0%)(112, 114]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(112, 114]%0筆(0.0%)(114, 116]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(114, 116]%7筆(0.3%)(116, 118]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(116, 118]%0筆(0.0%)(118, 120]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(118, 120]%0筆(0.0%)(120, 122]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(120, 122]%7筆(0.3%)(122, 124]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(122, 124]%0筆(0.0%)(124, 126]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(124, 126]%7筆(0.3%)(126, 128]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(126, 128]%0筆(0.0%)(128, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(128, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 132]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(130, 132]%7筆(0.3%)(132, 134]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(132, 134]%0筆(0.0%)(134, 136]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(134, 136]%0筆(0.0%)(136, 138]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(136, 138]%0筆(0.0%)(138, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(138, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 142]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(140, 142]%7筆(0.3%)(142, 144]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(142, 144]%0筆(0.0%)(144, 146]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(144, 146]%0筆(0.0%)(146, 148]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(146, 148]%0筆(0.0%)(148, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(148, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 152]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 152]%0筆(0.0%)(152, 154]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(152, 154]%0筆(0.0%)(154, 156]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(154, 156]%0筆(0.0%)(156, 158]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(156, 158]%0筆(0.0%)(158, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(158, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 162]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 162]%0筆(0.0%)(162, 164]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(162, 164]%0筆(0.0%)(164, 166]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(164, 166]%0筆(0.0%)(166, 168]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(166, 168]%0筆(0.0%)(168, 170]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(168, 170]%7筆(0.3%)(170, 172]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 172]%0筆(0.0%)(172, 174]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(172, 174]%0筆(0.0%)(174, 176]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(174, 176]%0筆(0.0%)(176, 178]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(176, 178]%0筆(0.0%)(178, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(178, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 182]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 182]%0筆(0.0%)(182, 184]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(182, 184]%0筆(0.0%)(184, 186]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(184, 186]%0筆(0.0%)(186, 188]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(186, 188]%0筆(0.0%)(188, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(188, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 192]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 192]%0筆(0.0%)(192, 194]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(192, 194]%0筆(0.0%)(194, 196]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(194, 196]%0筆(0.0%)(196, 198]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(196, 198]%0筆(0.0%)(198, 200]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(198, 200]%7筆(0.3%)(200, 202]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 202]%0筆(0.0%)(202, 204]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(202, 204]%0筆(0.0%)(204, 206]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(204, 206]%0筆(0.0%)(206, 208]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(206, 208]%0筆(0.0%)(208, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(208, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 212]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 212]%0筆(0.0%)(212, 214]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(212, 214]%0筆(0.0%)(214, 216]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(214, 216]%0筆(0.0%)(216, 218]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(216, 218]%0筆(0.0%)(218, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(218, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 222]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 222]%0筆(0.0%)(222, 224]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(222, 224]%0筆(0.0%)(224, 226]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(224, 226]%0筆(0.0%)(226, 228]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(226, 228]%0筆(0.0%)(228, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(228, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 232]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 232]%0筆(0.0%)(232, 234]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(232, 234]%0筆(0.0%)(234, 236]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(234, 236]%0筆(0.0%)(236, 238]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(236, 238]%7筆(0.3%)(238, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(238, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 242]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 242]%0筆(0.0%)(242, 244]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(242, 244]%0筆(0.0%)(244, 246]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(244, 246]%0筆(0.0%)(246, 248]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(246, 248]%0筆(0.0%)(248, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(248, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 252]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 252]%0筆(0.0%)(252, 254]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(252, 254]%0筆(0.0%)(254, 256]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(254, 256]%0筆(0.0%)(256, 258]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(256, 258]%0筆(0.0%)(258, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(258, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 262]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 262]%0筆(0.0%)(262, 264]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(262, 264]%0筆(0.0%)(264, 266]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(264, 266]%0筆(0.0%)(266, 268]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(266, 268]%0筆(0.0%)(268, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(268, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 272]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 272]%0筆(0.0%)(272, 274]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(272, 274]%0筆(0.0%)(274, 276]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(274, 276]%0筆(0.0%)(276, 278]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(276, 278]%0筆(0.0%)(278, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(278, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 282]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 282]%0筆(0.0%)(282, 284]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(282, 284]%0筆(0.0%)(284, 286]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(284, 286]%0筆(0.0%)(286, 288]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(286, 288]%0筆(0.0%)(288, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(288, 290]%0筆(0.0%)(290, 292]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(290, 292]%0筆(0.0%)(292, 294]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(292, 294]%0筆(0.0%)(294, 296]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(294, 296]%0筆(0.0%)(296, 298]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(296, 298]%0筆(0.0%)> 298%: 42筆 (1.52%)> 298%42筆(1.5%)

等距 10%(總覽)

(-60, -50]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(-60, -50]%14筆(0.5%)(-50, -40]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(-50, -40]%14筆(0.5%)(-40, -30]%: 80筆 (2.90%)(-40, -30]%80筆(2.9%)(-30, -20]%: 121筆 (4.38%)(-30, -20]%121筆(4.4%)(-20, -10]%: 321筆 (11.63%)(-20, -10]%321筆(11.6%)(-10, 0]%: 773筆 (28.00%)(-10, 0]%773筆(28.0%)(0, 10]%: 548筆 (19.85%)(0, 10]%548筆(19.8%)(10, 20]%: 350筆 (12.68%)(10, 20]%350筆(12.7%)(20, 30]%: 141筆 (5.11%)(20, 30]%141筆(5.1%)(30, 40]%: 84筆 (3.04%)(30, 40]%84筆(3.0%)(40, 50]%: 42筆 (1.52%)(40, 50]%42筆(1.5%)(50, 60]%: 35筆 (1.27%)(50, 60]%35筆(1.3%)(60, 70]%: 35筆 (1.27%)(60, 70]%35筆(1.3%)(70, 80]%: 49筆 (1.77%)(70, 80]%49筆(1.8%)(80, 90]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(80, 90]%7筆(0.3%)(90, 100]%: 21筆 (0.76%)(90, 100]%21筆(0.8%)(100, 110]%: 28筆 (1.01%)(100, 110]%28筆(1.0%)(110, 120]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(110, 120]%7筆(0.3%)(120, 130]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(120, 130]%14筆(0.5%)(130, 140]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(130, 140]%7筆(0.3%)(140, 150]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(140, 150]%7筆(0.3%)(150, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 170]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(160, 170]%7筆(0.3%)(170, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 200]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(190, 200]%7筆(0.3%)(200, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 240]%: 7筆 (0.25%)(230, 240]%7筆(0.3%)(240, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 290]%0筆(0.0%)> 290%: 42筆 (1.52%)> 290%42筆(1.5%)
資金曲線年化估算(實際複利路徑,幾何平均):+304.0%/年
依據:7 條互不重疊軌道,實際經過約 1779 天(約 4.9 年), 期末倍數跨軌道取幾何平均 = 903.33x,換算年化 +304.0%。
這個數字比下方「各期間報酬表」的算術平均更貼近實際:算術平均會被少數爆賺的軌道拉高 (例如某一軌 50 倍、另一軌只有 1.3 倍,算術平均會被前者拉走),幾何平均才代表「典型一條軌道」的真實經驗, 也是唯一真正對應「一筆錢從頭到尾連續投入」這個情境的算法。

多軌資金曲線(查驗複利風險用)

把整段歷史攤開,畫出 7 條互不重疊、各自獨立複利的資金軌道(起始都是 1.0,y 軸是對數座標, 因為複利成長可以跨好幾個數量級,線性座標會看不出早期的細節)。這張圖用來直接檢查「不停損(或停損很鬆)時, 會不會有某一軌被少數重摔的標的拖累,一路很久墊在低點沒有回本」——如果真的發生,會在圖上看到某條線大幅落後其他條、 長時間貼在低檔;如果只是像本頁其他數字顯示的那樣穩定成長,代表不是靠犧牲少數軌道去平均出來的, 而是因為每一筆交易本身就是「當天全部標的等權重」的組合報酬,單一標的重摔只會拉低當天組合報酬的一小部分 (例如池子裡 40 檔,一檔摔 −100% 只讓當天組合報酬掉約 −2.5 個百分點),不會讓整條資金軌道腰斬。 目前最差的一軌是第 4 軌,期末倍數 410.11x; 全部軌道中最低點是第 1 軌在 2022-06-23,掉到 0.58x。
各軌最低點:第1軌 2022-06-23 0.58x;第2軌 2022-06-23 0.63x;第3軌 2022-06-23 0.68x;第4軌 2022-06-23 0.67x;第5軌 2022-06-23 0.69x;第6軌 2022-06-23 0.67x;第7軌 2022-06-23 0.58x。

0.5x1x2x5x10x20x50x100x200x500x1000x2021-11-192022-09-122023-07-072024-04-292025-02-212025-12-152026-10-09第1軌 期末=616.37x第1軌 616.37x第2軌 期末=1473.39x第2軌 1473.39x第3軌 期末=1424.66x第3軌 1424.66x第4軌 期末=410.11x第4軌 410.11x第5軌 期末=1036.01x第5軌 1036.01x第6軌 期末=983.36x第6軌 983.36x第7軌 期末=908.01x第7軌 908.01x

選中交易的進出場目視檢查(最佳指標組合+最佳操作方式)

動態換股模式尚未支援進出場時線圖。

選股規則=動能/均線乖離/RSI 三個指標在同一訊號日的百分位排名加權平均,指標窗格配合持有期換算,跟操作方式(槓桿/停損/停利)完全脫鉤, 所以指標好壞與操作方式好壞分開判斷。權重與 K 用「排名分數」(依資金模式,見上方)窮舉搜尋;試驗組數愈多不代表愈可靠, 請對照「預設等權重組合」與「全買」兩個基準,不要只看單一數字。本頁不構成投資建議。