InvestMarket 指標回測(固定最佳操作方式,搜尋選股指標・動態換股模式)

本次回測參數(搜尋範圍 → 找到的最佳值;沒有寫「搜尋範圍」的欄位都是固定值,不搜尋)
・操作方式(固定值,沿用①頁「操作方式回測」最佳,不在這頁搜尋):槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)
・選股指標權重搜尋範圍:動能=0~1(範圍)、均線乖離=0~1(範圍)、RSI(強勢)=0~1(範圍)
  → 找到最佳組合:動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
・每日取前 K 名:K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5
・持有方式:動態換股;幾日未進前K名就換股,搜尋範圍:x∈4日 → 找到最佳 x=4日
  跌出第幾名就換股,搜尋範圍:y∈第10~15名 → 找到最佳 y=第14名
  x/y 條件關係(固定值,不搜尋):OR,任一成立即可

產生時間:2026-10-10 12:14:17 台灣時間(花費 15分47秒)
固定操作方式:槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)(來源:操作方式回測最佳)
持有方式:動態換股(依排名持續監控,無固定到期);找到最佳=連續 4 日未進前K名,或排名跌出第 14 名,就換成當天前K名裡還沒被持有的最高排名標的;兩條件關係:OR,任一成立即可(固定值,不搜尋;x/y 的搜尋範圍見上方「本次回測參數」)
每日取排名前 K 名等權重(K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5);標的 41 檔;進場樣本 1236(訊號日間隔 1 日曆日,沿用操作方式回測); 指標窗格 10 個交易日(配合持有 14 日曆日換算,約 5/7 比例);期間共切 6 段、全部段都評估(沿用操作方式回測的期間數與切法,三頁一致,數字才能互相比較;純公式規則不需要訓練,不用留暖身期) ;搜尋 15 組權重×K×x×y(動態換股貝氏搜尋(optuna-tpe,15/15 組))

沿用操作方式回測的資金模式與排名目標(口徑一致才能比較「選股」vs「全買」):資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入)

指標回測控制頁 ・ 操作方式回測 ・ 每日排名

✅ 搜尋出的權重勝過預設等權重組合(判定口徑=複利:資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入))
★判定口徑:複利 對照:固定資金口徑
組合年化 %
(資金週轉,
排名依據)
平均實際
持有日
每筆等效複利率
(資金曲線口徑) %
最差期間
min_pc %
年化固定資金 %每筆平均
fx_avg %
最差期間
fx_min %
最佳指標組合+319.220.2+8.266+0.393+237.4+13.156+1.176
預設等權重組合(三指標各1/3、前3名)+314.616.4+6.600+0.398+276.6+12.429+2.469
(最佳組合同時勝過預設指標組合)
使用組合:動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
每日前 5 名
3 個指標都是純技術規則(不是訓練出來的模型):動能=10個交易日報酬率;均線乖離=短均(10日)/長均(8倍)-1; RSI(強勢)=Wilder平滑 RSI 取「數值高」方向。權重與 K 用同一批評估期間窮舉搜尋出來(不是訓練模型,不需要 walk-forward,但權重/K 的選擇本身 看過全部評估期間的資料,跟操作方式回測選最佳參數一樣有事後選擇偏誤,正式使用前建議做樣本外驗證)。
「預設等權重組合」=固定基準線:三個指標權重各 1/3、每日前 3 名,不經搜尋;用來看「搜尋出來的權重」有沒有比不搜尋更好。

最佳組合:各期間(out-of-sample)

期間(訊號日)日曆日數每筆等效複利率 %選中標的單筆平均%(權益,算術) 整段期間報酬 %
(各路徑複利後平均)
固定資金每筆平均 %
(不複利)
固定資金整段累加 %每條路徑平均幾筆候選訊號日數軌道獲利比例
2021-11-05~2022-08-31300+0.393+1.175+25.84+1.176+69.058.73100%
2022-09-01~2023-06-27300+0.973+7.081+83.41+7.096+443.862.73100%
2023-06-28~2024-04-22300+2.433+18.997+380.75+18.993+1241.165.33100%
2024-04-23~2025-02-16300+2.265+18.981+365.45+18.982+1303.468.73100%
2025-02-17~2025-12-13300+2.058+17.224+280.95+17.227+1131.065.73100%
2025-12-14~2026-10-10301+1.738+15.462+264.10+15.462+1159.7753100%
全部期間(複利/累加)1801+1.674+71535.96+13.501+5347.9396.118

前 12 名指標組合

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
1每日前 5 名+8.266+319.220.2+0.393+1.640+13.156x=4日/y=第14名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
2每日前 5 名+6.909+179.923.7-0.973+1.114+15.528x=4日/y=第13名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
3每日前 5 名+6.869+465.114.0+0.398+1.457+10.677x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
4每日前 5 名+6.774+206.321.4-0.236+1.466+15.267x=4日/y=第13名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.2
5每日前 5 名+6.600+314.616.4+0.398+1.572+12.429x=4日/y=第10名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
6每日前 5 名+6.496+414.114.0+0.411+1.444+10.810x=4日/y=第12名/OR動能×0.6 + 均線乖離×0.1 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
7每日前 5 名+6.492+189.021.6-0.232+1.254+12.886x=4日/y=第14名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
8每日前 5 名+6.209+181.021.3-0.279+1.391+11.759x=4日/y=第14名/OR動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
9每日前 5 名+6.168+225.618.5+0.170+1.739+12.706x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
10每日前 5 名+5.816+367.913.4-0.304+1.238+9.685x=4日/y=第12名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.1 + RSI(強勢)×0.6
11每日前 5 名+5.796+201.918.6+0.098+1.420+11.245x=4日/y=第14名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
12每日前 5 名+5.743+416.412.4+0.299+1.435+9.224x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.5 + 均線乖離×0.0 + RSI(強勢)×0.5

報酬率分佈(單筆交易,查錯用)

每一筆是「一個標的、一個進場日」的實際模擬結果(權益%:已含槓桿、手續費與滑價,持有最長 20 日曆日)。用來檢查有沒有不合理的地方(例如停損筆的報酬遠超過停損設定、到期筆全部為正等)。(動態換股模式:每筆代表一次真正的排名換股或價格出場,不含期間結束時的強制標記;共 2735 筆。)
強平的位置:價格跌到權益虧損約 90%(=1 ÷ 槓桿 × 0.9,交易所會在保證金耗盡之前就強制平倉,不會等到虧 100%)就視為強平,所以「不設停損」時的大虧會集中在 −90% 再加上手續費/滑價(約 −91% ~ −93%),而不是 −100%;強平在表中歸類為「停損」。若遇跳空一開盤就穿過強平價,才會虧得更多(表中「跳空停損」的最小值)。

最佳指標組合(動態換股,整段歷史,全部軌道合併)

筆數平均%中位數%標準差%勝率%最小%P5P25P75P95最大%
2735+14.37+0.1266.8750.5-65.16-27.87-8.61+15.60+93.54+658.72

等距 2%(細節)

(-66, -64]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-66, -64]%7筆(0.3%)(-64, -62]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-64, -62]%0筆(0.0%)(-62, -60]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-62, -60]%7筆(0.3%)(-60, -58]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-60, -58]%7筆(0.3%)(-58, -56]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-58, -56]%7筆(0.3%)(-56, -54]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-56, -54]%7筆(0.3%)(-54, -52]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-54, -52]%0筆(0.0%)(-52, -50]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(-52, -50]%7筆(0.3%)(-50, -48]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-50, -48]%0筆(0.0%)(-48, -46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-48, -46]%0筆(0.0%)(-46, -44]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-46, -44]%0筆(0.0%)(-44, -42]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-44, -42]%0筆(0.0%)(-42, -40]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-42, -40]%0筆(0.0%)(-40, -38]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-40, -38]%0筆(0.0%)(-38, -36]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-38, -36]%0筆(0.0%)(-36, -34]%: 21筆 (0.77%)(-36, -34]%21筆(0.8%)(-34, -32]%: 21筆 (0.77%)(-34, -32]%21筆(0.8%)(-32, -30]%: 21筆 (0.77%)(-32, -30]%21筆(0.8%)(-30, -28]%: 21筆 (0.77%)(-30, -28]%21筆(0.8%)(-28, -26]%: 35筆 (1.28%)(-28, -26]%35筆(1.3%)(-26, -24]%: 35筆 (1.28%)(-26, -24]%35筆(1.3%)(-24, -22]%: 15筆 (0.55%)(-24, -22]%15筆(0.5%)(-22, -20]%: 28筆 (1.02%)(-22, -20]%28筆(1.0%)(-20, -18]%: 78筆 (2.85%)(-20, -18]%78筆(2.9%)(-18, -16]%: 80筆 (2.93%)(-18, -16]%80筆(2.9%)(-16, -14]%: 39筆 (1.43%)(-16, -14]%39筆(1.4%)(-14, -12]%: 84筆 (3.07%)(-14, -12]%84筆(3.1%)(-12, -10]%: 86筆 (3.14%)(-12, -10]%86筆(3.1%)(-10, -8]%: 120筆 (4.39%)(-10, -8]%120筆(4.4%)(-8, -6]%: 149筆 (5.45%)(-8, -6]%149筆(5.4%)(-6, -4]%: 141筆 (5.16%)(-6, -4]%141筆(5.2%)(-4, -2]%: 169筆 (6.18%)(-4, -2]%169筆(6.2%)(-2, 0]%: 169筆 (6.18%)(-2, 0]%169筆(6.2%)(0, 2]%: 128筆 (4.68%)(0, 2]%128筆(4.7%)(2, 4]%: 83筆 (3.03%)(2, 4]%83筆(3.0%)(4, 6]%: 129筆 (4.72%)(4, 6]%129筆(4.7%)(6, 8]%: 112筆 (4.10%)(6, 8]%112筆(4.1%)(8, 10]%: 59筆 (2.16%)(8, 10]%59筆(2.2%)(10, 12]%: 73筆 (2.67%)(10, 12]%73筆(2.7%)(12, 14]%: 63筆 (2.30%)(12, 14]%63筆(2.3%)(14, 16]%: 73筆 (2.67%)(14, 16]%73筆(2.7%)(16, 18]%: 34筆 (1.24%)(16, 18]%34筆(1.2%)(18, 20]%: 57筆 (2.08%)(18, 20]%57筆(2.1%)(20, 22]%: 58筆 (2.12%)(20, 22]%58筆(2.1%)(22, 24]%: 22筆 (0.80%)(22, 24]%22筆(0.8%)(24, 26]%: 49筆 (1.79%)(24, 26]%49筆(1.8%)(26, 28]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(26, 28]%7筆(0.3%)(28, 30]%: 28筆 (1.02%)(28, 30]%28筆(1.0%)(30, 32]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(30, 32]%14筆(0.5%)(32, 34]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(32, 34]%0筆(0.0%)(34, 36]%: 21筆 (0.77%)(34, 36]%21筆(0.8%)(36, 38]%: 28筆 (1.02%)(36, 38]%28筆(1.0%)(38, 40]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(38, 40]%14筆(0.5%)(40, 42]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(40, 42]%14筆(0.5%)(42, 44]%: 21筆 (0.77%)(42, 44]%21筆(0.8%)(44, 46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(44, 46]%0筆(0.0%)(46, 48]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(46, 48]%14筆(0.5%)(48, 50]%: 21筆 (0.77%)(48, 50]%21筆(0.8%)(50, 52]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(50, 52]%7筆(0.3%)(52, 54]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(52, 54]%0筆(0.0%)(54, 56]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(54, 56]%0筆(0.0%)(56, 58]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(56, 58]%7筆(0.3%)(58, 60]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(58, 60]%7筆(0.3%)(60, 62]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(60, 62]%0筆(0.0%)(62, 64]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(62, 64]%7筆(0.3%)(64, 66]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(64, 66]%0筆(0.0%)(66, 68]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(66, 68]%7筆(0.3%)(68, 70]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(68, 70]%0筆(0.0%)(70, 72]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(70, 72]%7筆(0.3%)(72, 74]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(72, 74]%7筆(0.3%)(74, 76]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(74, 76]%0筆(0.0%)(76, 78]%: 21筆 (0.77%)(76, 78]%21筆(0.8%)(78, 80]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(78, 80]%14筆(0.5%)(80, 82]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(80, 82]%7筆(0.3%)(82, 84]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(82, 84]%0筆(0.0%)(84, 86]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(84, 86]%7筆(0.3%)(86, 88]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(86, 88]%0筆(0.0%)(88, 90]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(88, 90]%7筆(0.3%)(90, 92]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(90, 92]%7筆(0.3%)(92, 94]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(92, 94]%14筆(0.5%)(94, 96]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(94, 96]%14筆(0.5%)(96, 98]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(96, 98]%7筆(0.3%)(98, 100]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(98, 100]%14筆(0.5%)(100, 102]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(100, 102]%7筆(0.3%)(102, 104]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(102, 104]%0筆(0.0%)(104, 106]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(104, 106]%0筆(0.0%)(106, 108]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(106, 108]%0筆(0.0%)(108, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(108, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 112]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 112]%0筆(0.0%)(112, 114]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(112, 114]%0筆(0.0%)(114, 116]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(114, 116]%0筆(0.0%)(116, 118]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(116, 118]%0筆(0.0%)(118, 120]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(118, 120]%0筆(0.0%)(120, 122]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(120, 122]%7筆(0.3%)(122, 124]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(122, 124]%7筆(0.3%)(124, 126]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(124, 126]%7筆(0.3%)(126, 128]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(126, 128]%14筆(0.5%)(128, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(128, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 132]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 132]%0筆(0.0%)(132, 134]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(132, 134]%0筆(0.0%)(134, 136]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(134, 136]%0筆(0.0%)(136, 138]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(136, 138]%0筆(0.0%)(138, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(138, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 142]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 142]%0筆(0.0%)(142, 144]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(142, 144]%0筆(0.0%)(144, 146]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(144, 146]%0筆(0.0%)(146, 148]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(146, 148]%7筆(0.3%)(148, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(148, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 152]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 152]%0筆(0.0%)(152, 154]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(152, 154]%0筆(0.0%)(154, 156]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(154, 156]%0筆(0.0%)(156, 158]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(156, 158]%0筆(0.0%)(158, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(158, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 162]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 162]%0筆(0.0%)(162, 164]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(162, 164]%0筆(0.0%)(164, 166]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(164, 166]%0筆(0.0%)(166, 168]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(166, 168]%0筆(0.0%)(168, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(168, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 172]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 172]%0筆(0.0%)(172, 174]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(172, 174]%0筆(0.0%)(174, 176]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(174, 176]%0筆(0.0%)(176, 178]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(176, 178]%0筆(0.0%)(178, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(178, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 182]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 182]%0筆(0.0%)(182, 184]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(182, 184]%0筆(0.0%)(184, 186]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(184, 186]%0筆(0.0%)(186, 188]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(186, 188]%0筆(0.0%)(188, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(188, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 192]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 192]%0筆(0.0%)(192, 194]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(192, 194]%0筆(0.0%)(194, 196]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(194, 196]%0筆(0.0%)(196, 198]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(196, 198]%0筆(0.0%)(198, 200]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(198, 200]%7筆(0.3%)(200, 202]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(200, 202]%7筆(0.3%)(202, 204]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(202, 204]%0筆(0.0%)(204, 206]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(204, 206]%0筆(0.0%)(206, 208]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(206, 208]%0筆(0.0%)(208, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(208, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 212]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 212]%0筆(0.0%)(212, 214]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(212, 214]%0筆(0.0%)(214, 216]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(214, 216]%0筆(0.0%)(216, 218]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(216, 218]%0筆(0.0%)(218, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(218, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 222]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 222]%0筆(0.0%)(222, 224]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(222, 224]%0筆(0.0%)(224, 226]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(224, 226]%0筆(0.0%)(226, 228]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(226, 228]%0筆(0.0%)(228, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(228, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 232]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 232]%0筆(0.0%)(232, 234]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(232, 234]%0筆(0.0%)(234, 236]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(234, 236]%0筆(0.0%)(236, 238]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(236, 238]%0筆(0.0%)(238, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(238, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 242]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 242]%0筆(0.0%)(242, 244]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(242, 244]%0筆(0.0%)(244, 246]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(244, 246]%0筆(0.0%)(246, 248]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(246, 248]%0筆(0.0%)(248, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(248, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 252]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 252]%0筆(0.0%)(252, 254]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(252, 254]%0筆(0.0%)(254, 256]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(254, 256]%0筆(0.0%)(256, 258]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(256, 258]%0筆(0.0%)(258, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(258, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 262]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 262]%0筆(0.0%)(262, 264]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(262, 264]%0筆(0.0%)(264, 266]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(264, 266]%0筆(0.0%)(266, 268]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(266, 268]%0筆(0.0%)(268, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(268, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 272]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 272]%0筆(0.0%)(272, 274]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(272, 274]%0筆(0.0%)(274, 276]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(274, 276]%0筆(0.0%)(276, 278]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(276, 278]%0筆(0.0%)(278, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(278, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 282]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(280, 282]%7筆(0.3%)(282, 284]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(282, 284]%0筆(0.0%)(284, 286]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(284, 286]%0筆(0.0%)(286, 288]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(286, 288]%0筆(0.0%)(288, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(288, 290]%0筆(0.0%)(290, 292]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(290, 292]%0筆(0.0%)(292, 294]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(292, 294]%0筆(0.0%)(294, 296]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(294, 296]%0筆(0.0%)(296, 298]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(296, 298]%0筆(0.0%)> 298%: 28筆 (1.02%)> 298%28筆(1.0%)

等距 10%(總覽)

(-70, -60]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(-70, -60]%14筆(0.5%)(-60, -50]%: 28筆 (1.02%)(-60, -50]%28筆(1.0%)(-50, -40]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-50, -40]%0筆(0.0%)(-40, -30]%: 63筆 (2.30%)(-40, -30]%63筆(2.3%)(-30, -20]%: 134筆 (4.90%)(-30, -20]%134筆(4.9%)(-20, -10]%: 367筆 (13.42%)(-20, -10]%367筆(13.4%)(-10, 0]%: 748筆 (27.35%)(-10, 0]%748筆(27.3%)(0, 10]%: 511筆 (18.68%)(0, 10]%511筆(18.7%)(10, 20]%: 300筆 (10.97%)(10, 20]%300筆(11.0%)(20, 30]%: 164筆 (6.00%)(20, 30]%164筆(6.0%)(30, 40]%: 77筆 (2.82%)(30, 40]%77筆(2.8%)(40, 50]%: 70筆 (2.56%)(40, 50]%70筆(2.6%)(50, 60]%: 21筆 (0.77%)(50, 60]%21筆(0.8%)(60, 70]%: 14筆 (0.51%)(60, 70]%14筆(0.5%)(70, 80]%: 49筆 (1.79%)(70, 80]%49筆(1.8%)(80, 90]%: 21筆 (0.77%)(80, 90]%21筆(0.8%)(90, 100]%: 56筆 (2.05%)(90, 100]%56筆(2.0%)(100, 110]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(100, 110]%7筆(0.3%)(110, 120]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 120]%0筆(0.0%)(120, 130]%: 35筆 (1.28%)(120, 130]%35筆(1.3%)(130, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 150]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(140, 150]%7筆(0.3%)(150, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 200]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(190, 200]%7筆(0.3%)(200, 210]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(200, 210]%7筆(0.3%)(210, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 290]%: 7筆 (0.26%)(280, 290]%7筆(0.3%)> 290%: 28筆 (1.02%)> 290%28筆(1.0%)
資金曲線年化估算(實際複利路徑,幾何平均):+328.0%/年
依據:7 條互不重疊軌道,實際經過約 1779 天(約 4.9 年), 期末倍數跨軌道取幾何平均 = 1196.50x,換算年化 +328.0%。
這個數字比下方「各期間報酬表」的算術平均更貼近實際:算術平均會被少數爆賺的軌道拉高 (例如某一軌 50 倍、另一軌只有 1.3 倍,算術平均會被前者拉走),幾何平均才代表「典型一條軌道」的真實經驗, 也是唯一真正對應「一筆錢從頭到尾連續投入」這個情境的算法。

多軌資金曲線(查驗複利風險用)

把整段歷史攤開,畫出 7 條互不重疊、各自獨立複利的資金軌道(起始都是 1.0,y 軸是對數座標, 因為複利成長可以跨好幾個數量級,線性座標會看不出早期的細節)。這張圖用來直接檢查「不停損(或停損很鬆)時, 會不會有某一軌被少數重摔的標的拖累,一路很久墊在低點沒有回本」——如果真的發生,會在圖上看到某條線大幅落後其他條、 長時間貼在低檔;如果只是像本頁其他數字顯示的那樣穩定成長,代表不是靠犧牲少數軌道去平均出來的, 而是因為每一筆交易本身就是「當天全部標的等權重」的組合報酬,單一標的重摔只會拉低當天組合報酬的一小部分 (例如池子裡 40 檔,一檔摔 −100% 只讓當天組合報酬掉約 −2.5 個百分點),不會讓整條資金軌道腰斬。 目前最差的一軌是第 2 軌,期末倍數 824.91x; 全部軌道中最低點是第 6 軌在 2022-03-17,掉到 0.75x。
各軌最低點:第1軌 2022-03-17 0.77x;第2軌 2022-03-17 0.80x;第3軌 2022-03-17 0.81x;第4軌 2022-03-17 0.81x;第5軌 2022-03-17 0.76x;第6軌 2022-03-17 0.75x;第7軌 2022-03-17 0.76x。

0.5x1x2x5x10x20x50x100x200x500x1000x2021-11-192022-09-122023-07-072024-04-292025-02-212025-12-152026-10-09第1軌 期末=1727.64x第1軌 1727.64x第2軌 期末=824.91x第2軌 824.91x第3軌 期末=923.77x第3軌 923.77x第4軌 期末=1472.13x第4軌 1472.13x第5軌 期末=837.46x第5軌 837.46x第6軌 期末=1232.87x第6軌 1232.87x第7軌 期末=1754.40x第7軌 1754.40x

選中交易的進出場目視檢查(最佳指標組合+最佳操作方式)

動態換股模式尚未支援進出場時線圖。

選股規則=動能/均線乖離/RSI 三個指標在同一訊號日的百分位排名加權平均,指標窗格配合持有期換算,跟操作方式(槓桿/停損/停利)完全脫鉤, 所以指標好壞與操作方式好壞分開判斷。權重與 K 用「排名分數」(依資金模式,見上方)窮舉搜尋;試驗組數愈多不代表愈可靠, 請對照「預設等權重組合」與「全買」兩個基準,不要只看單一數字。本頁不構成投資建議。