InvestMarket 指標回測(固定最佳操作方式,搜尋選股指標・動態換股模式)

本次回測參數(搜尋範圍 → 找到的最佳值;沒有寫「搜尋範圍」的欄位都是固定值,不搜尋)
・操作方式(固定值,沿用①頁「操作方式回測」最佳,不在這頁搜尋):槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)
・選股指標權重搜尋範圍:動能=0~1(範圍)、均線乖離=0~1(範圍)、RSI(強勢)=0~1(範圍)
  → 找到最佳組合:動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
・每日取前 K 名:K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5
・持有方式:動態換股;幾日未進前K名就換股,搜尋範圍:x∈4日 → 找到最佳 x=4日
  跌出第幾名就換股,搜尋範圍:y∈第11~15名 → 找到最佳 y=第11名
  x/y 條件關係(固定值,不搜尋):OR,任一成立即可

產生時間:2026-09-29 23:45:39 台灣時間(花費 22分17秒)
固定操作方式:槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)(來源:操作方式回測最佳)
持有方式:動態換股(依排名持續監控,無固定到期);找到最佳=連續 4 日未進前K名,或排名跌出第 11 名,就換成當天前K名裡還沒被持有的最高排名標的;兩條件關係:OR,任一成立即可(固定值,不搜尋;x/y 的搜尋範圍見上方「本次回測參數」)
每日取排名前 K 名等權重(K=5(強制固定,不搜尋K) → 找到最佳 K=5);標的 42 檔;進場樣本 1237(訊號日間隔 1 日曆日,沿用操作方式回測); 指標窗格 10 個交易日(配合持有 14 日曆日換算,約 5/7 比例);期間共切 6 段、全部段都評估(沿用操作方式回測的期間數與切法,三頁一致,數字才能互相比較;純公式規則不需要訓練,不用留暖身期) ;搜尋 15 組權重×K×x×y(動態換股貝氏搜尋(optuna-tpe,15/15 組))

沿用操作方式回測的資金模式與排名目標(口徑一致才能比較「選股」vs「全買」):資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入)

指標回測控制頁 ・ 操作方式回測 ・ 每日排名

❌ 沒有找到勝過預設等權重組合的權重(動態換股模式沒有計算「全買」基準)(判定口徑=複利:資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入))
★判定口徑:複利 對照:固定資金口徑
組合年化 %
(資金週轉,
排名依據)
平均實際
持有日
每筆等效複利率
(資金曲線口徑) %
最差期間
min_pc %
年化固定資金 %每筆平均
fx_avg %
最差期間
fx_min %
最佳指標組合+538.417.4+9.260+1.057+294.9+14.085+5.495
預設等權重組合(三指標各1/3、前3名)+538.417.4+9.260+1.057+294.9+14.085+5.495
(最佳組合未勝過預設指標組合——搜尋結果可能只是雜訊)
使用組合:動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
每日前 5 名
3 個指標都是純技術規則(不是訓練出來的模型):動能=10個交易日報酬率;均線乖離=短均(10日)/長均(8倍)-1; RSI(強勢)=Wilder平滑 RSI 取「數值高」方向。權重與 K 用同一批評估期間窮舉搜尋出來(不是訓練模型,不需要 walk-forward,但權重/K 的選擇本身 看過全部評估期間的資料,跟操作方式回測選最佳參數一樣有事後選擇偏誤,正式使用前建議做樣本外驗證)。
「預設等權重組合」=固定基準線:三個指標權重各 1/3、每日前 3 名,不經搜尋;用來看「搜尋出來的權重」有沒有比不搜尋更好。

最佳組合:各期間(out-of-sample)

期間(訊號日)日曆日數每筆等效複利率 %選中標的單筆平均%(權益,算術) 整段期間報酬 %
(各路徑複利後平均)
固定資金每筆平均 %
(不複利)
固定資金整段累加 %每條路徑平均幾筆候選訊號日數軌道獲利比例
2021-10-25~2022-08-20300+1.057+5.497+126.25+5.495+426.977.73100%
2022-08-21~2023-06-16300+1.285+7.974+178.81+7.974+640.680.33100%
2023-06-17~2024-04-11300+2.440+18.643+519.82+18.642+1410.675.73100%
2024-04-12~2025-02-05300+1.534+15.760+239.70+15.773+1266.180.33100%
2025-02-06~2025-12-02300+1.947+17.368+280.84+17.370+1204.269.33100%
2025-12-03~2026-09-29301+2.010+19.258+359.69+19.258+1476.476.73100%
全部期間(複利/累加)1801+1.699+232430.40+13.967+6424.946018

前 12 名指標組合

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
1每日前 5 名+9.260+538.417.4+1.057+1.711+14.085x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
2每日前 5 名+7.816+613.714.0+0.667+1.466+11.116x=4日/y=第12名/OR動能×0.6 + 均線乖離×0.1 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
3每日前 5 名+7.758+275.820.6+0.088+1.482+12.629x=4日/y=第13名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
4每日前 5 名+7.204+243.120.6+0.537+1.538+13.309x=4日/y=第15名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
5每日前 5 名+6.923+231.520.4-0.089+1.431+13.471x=4日/y=第12名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
6每日前 5 名+6.865+172.124.2+0.358+1.398+14.693x=4日/y=第13名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
7每日前 5 名+6.757+200.321.7+0.589+1.453+11.556x=4日/y=第15名/OR動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
8每日前 5 名+6.753+246.719.2+0.185+1.486+13.228x=4日/y=第12名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
9每日前 5 名+6.669+267.418.1+0.381+1.492+13.497x=4日/y=第13名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
10每日前 5 名+6.342+324.815.5+0.473+1.314+10.209x=4日/y=第13名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
11每日前 5 名+6.127+395.713.6+0.642+1.330+10.691x=4日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
12每日前 5 名+6.085+383.113.7+0.353+1.282+9.273x=4日/y=第13名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.1 + RSI(強勢)×0.6

報酬率分佈(單筆交易,查錯用)

每一筆是「一個標的、一個進場日」的實際模擬結果(權益%:已含槓桿、手續費與滑價,持有最長 17 日曆日)。用來檢查有沒有不合理的地方(例如停損筆的報酬遠超過停損設定、到期筆全部為正等)。(動態換股模式:每筆代表一次真正的排名換股或價格出場,不含期間結束時的強制標記;共 3165 筆。)
強平的位置:價格跌到權益虧損約 90%(=1 ÷ 槓桿 × 0.9,交易所會在保證金耗盡之前就強制平倉,不會等到虧 100%)就視為強平,所以「不設停損」時的大虧會集中在 −90% 再加上手續費/滑價(約 −91% ~ −93%),而不是 −100%;強平在表中歸類為「停損」。若遇跳空一開盤就穿過強平價,才會虧得更多(表中「跳空停損」的最小值)。

最佳指標組合(動態換股,整段歷史,全部軌道合併)

筆數平均%中位數%標準差%勝率%最小%P5P25P75P95最大%
3165+15.29+1.2068.8253.3-59.89-23.41-7.48+14.76+87.99+668.75

等距 2%(細節)

(-60, -58]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-60, -58]%7筆(0.2%)(-58, -56]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-58, -56]%0筆(0.0%)(-56, -54]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-56, -54]%0筆(0.0%)(-54, -52]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-54, -52]%7筆(0.2%)(-52, -50]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-52, -50]%0筆(0.0%)(-50, -48]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-50, -48]%7筆(0.2%)(-48, -46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-48, -46]%0筆(0.0%)(-46, -44]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-46, -44]%0筆(0.0%)(-44, -42]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-44, -42]%0筆(0.0%)(-42, -40]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-42, -40]%0筆(0.0%)(-40, -38]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-40, -38]%7筆(0.2%)(-38, -36]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-38, -36]%0筆(0.0%)(-36, -34]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(-36, -34]%14筆(0.4%)(-34, -32]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(-34, -32]%14筆(0.4%)(-32, -30]%: 28筆 (0.88%)(-32, -30]%28筆(0.9%)(-30, -28]%: 42筆 (1.33%)(-30, -28]%42筆(1.3%)(-28, -26]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-28, -26]%7筆(0.2%)(-26, -24]%: 21筆 (0.66%)(-26, -24]%21筆(0.7%)(-24, -22]%: 35筆 (1.11%)(-24, -22]%35筆(1.1%)(-22, -20]%: 42筆 (1.33%)(-22, -20]%42筆(1.3%)(-20, -18]%: 35筆 (1.11%)(-20, -18]%35筆(1.1%)(-18, -16]%: 49筆 (1.55%)(-18, -16]%49筆(1.5%)(-16, -14]%: 87筆 (2.75%)(-16, -14]%87筆(2.7%)(-14, -12]%: 127筆 (4.01%)(-14, -12]%127筆(4.0%)(-12, -10]%: 98筆 (3.10%)(-12, -10]%98筆(3.1%)(-10, -8]%: 149筆 (4.71%)(-10, -8]%149筆(4.7%)(-8, -6]%: 122筆 (3.85%)(-8, -6]%122筆(3.9%)(-6, -4]%: 181筆 (5.72%)(-6, -4]%181筆(5.7%)(-4, -2]%: 202筆 (6.38%)(-4, -2]%202筆(6.4%)(-2, 0]%: 198筆 (6.26%)(-2, 0]%198筆(6.3%)(0, 2]%: 152筆 (4.80%)(0, 2]%152筆(4.8%)(2, 4]%: 170筆 (5.37%)(2, 4]%170筆(5.4%)(4, 6]%: 186筆 (5.88%)(4, 6]%186筆(5.9%)(6, 8]%: 92筆 (2.91%)(6, 8]%92筆(2.9%)(8, 10]%: 103筆 (3.25%)(8, 10]%103筆(3.3%)(10, 12]%: 121筆 (3.82%)(10, 12]%121筆(3.8%)(12, 14]%: 42筆 (1.33%)(12, 14]%42筆(1.3%)(14, 16]%: 92筆 (2.91%)(14, 16]%92筆(2.9%)(16, 18]%: 56筆 (1.77%)(16, 18]%56筆(1.8%)(18, 20]%: 44筆 (1.39%)(18, 20]%44筆(1.4%)(20, 22]%: 38筆 (1.20%)(20, 22]%38筆(1.2%)(22, 24]%: 47筆 (1.48%)(22, 24]%47筆(1.5%)(24, 26]%: 44筆 (1.39%)(24, 26]%44筆(1.4%)(26, 28]%: 29筆 (0.92%)(26, 28]%29筆(0.9%)(28, 30]%: 21筆 (0.66%)(28, 30]%21筆(0.7%)(30, 32]%: 24筆 (0.76%)(30, 32]%24筆(0.8%)(32, 34]%: 33筆 (1.04%)(32, 34]%33筆(1.0%)(34, 36]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(34, 36]%14筆(0.4%)(36, 38]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(36, 38]%14筆(0.4%)(38, 40]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(38, 40]%0筆(0.0%)(40, 42]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(40, 42]%14筆(0.4%)(42, 44]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(42, 44]%7筆(0.2%)(44, 46]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(44, 46]%7筆(0.2%)(46, 48]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(46, 48]%7筆(0.2%)(48, 50]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(48, 50]%14筆(0.4%)(50, 52]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(50, 52]%0筆(0.0%)(52, 54]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(52, 54]%14筆(0.4%)(54, 56]%: 28筆 (0.88%)(54, 56]%28筆(0.9%)(56, 58]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(56, 58]%7筆(0.2%)(58, 60]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(58, 60]%7筆(0.2%)(60, 62]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(60, 62]%7筆(0.2%)(62, 64]%: 21筆 (0.66%)(62, 64]%21筆(0.7%)(64, 66]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(64, 66]%7筆(0.2%)(66, 68]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(66, 68]%7筆(0.2%)(68, 70]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(68, 70]%0筆(0.0%)(70, 72]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(70, 72]%7筆(0.2%)(72, 74]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(72, 74]%0筆(0.0%)(74, 76]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(74, 76]%7筆(0.2%)(76, 78]%: 21筆 (0.66%)(76, 78]%21筆(0.7%)(78, 80]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(78, 80]%0筆(0.0%)(80, 82]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(80, 82]%7筆(0.2%)(82, 84]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(82, 84]%14筆(0.4%)(84, 86]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(84, 86]%0筆(0.0%)(86, 88]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(86, 88]%7筆(0.2%)(88, 90]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(88, 90]%14筆(0.4%)(90, 92]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(90, 92]%7筆(0.2%)(92, 94]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(92, 94]%14筆(0.4%)(94, 96]%: 21筆 (0.66%)(94, 96]%21筆(0.7%)(96, 98]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(96, 98]%0筆(0.0%)(98, 100]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(98, 100]%7筆(0.2%)(100, 102]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(100, 102]%0筆(0.0%)(102, 104]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(102, 104]%0筆(0.0%)(104, 106]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(104, 106]%0筆(0.0%)(106, 108]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(106, 108]%0筆(0.0%)(108, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(108, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 112]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 112]%0筆(0.0%)(112, 114]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(112, 114]%0筆(0.0%)(114, 116]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(114, 116]%0筆(0.0%)(116, 118]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(116, 118]%0筆(0.0%)(118, 120]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(118, 120]%7筆(0.2%)(120, 122]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(120, 122]%7筆(0.2%)(122, 124]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(122, 124]%0筆(0.0%)(124, 126]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(124, 126]%0筆(0.0%)(126, 128]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(126, 128]%0筆(0.0%)(128, 130]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(128, 130]%7筆(0.2%)(130, 132]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 132]%0筆(0.0%)(132, 134]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(132, 134]%0筆(0.0%)(134, 136]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(134, 136]%0筆(0.0%)(136, 138]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(136, 138]%0筆(0.0%)(138, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(138, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 142]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 142]%0筆(0.0%)(142, 144]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(142, 144]%0筆(0.0%)(144, 146]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(144, 146]%0筆(0.0%)(146, 148]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(146, 148]%0筆(0.0%)(148, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(148, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 152]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 152]%0筆(0.0%)(152, 154]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(152, 154]%0筆(0.0%)(154, 156]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(154, 156]%0筆(0.0%)(156, 158]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(156, 158]%7筆(0.2%)(158, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(158, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 162]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 162]%0筆(0.0%)(162, 164]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(162, 164]%0筆(0.0%)(164, 166]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(164, 166]%0筆(0.0%)(166, 168]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(166, 168]%0筆(0.0%)(168, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(168, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 172]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 172]%0筆(0.0%)(172, 174]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(172, 174]%0筆(0.0%)(174, 176]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(174, 176]%0筆(0.0%)(176, 178]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(176, 178]%0筆(0.0%)(178, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(178, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 182]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 182]%0筆(0.0%)(182, 184]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(182, 184]%0筆(0.0%)(184, 186]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(184, 186]%0筆(0.0%)(186, 188]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(186, 188]%0筆(0.0%)(188, 190]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(188, 190]%7筆(0.2%)(190, 192]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 192]%0筆(0.0%)(192, 194]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(192, 194]%0筆(0.0%)(194, 196]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(194, 196]%0筆(0.0%)(196, 198]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(196, 198]%0筆(0.0%)(198, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(198, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 202]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 202]%0筆(0.0%)(202, 204]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(202, 204]%0筆(0.0%)(204, 206]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(204, 206]%0筆(0.0%)(206, 208]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(206, 208]%0筆(0.0%)(208, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(208, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 212]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 212]%0筆(0.0%)(212, 214]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(212, 214]%0筆(0.0%)(214, 216]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(214, 216]%0筆(0.0%)(216, 218]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(216, 218]%0筆(0.0%)(218, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(218, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 222]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 222]%0筆(0.0%)(222, 224]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(222, 224]%0筆(0.0%)(224, 226]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(224, 226]%7筆(0.2%)(226, 228]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(226, 228]%0筆(0.0%)(228, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(228, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 232]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 232]%0筆(0.0%)(232, 234]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(232, 234]%0筆(0.0%)(234, 236]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(234, 236]%0筆(0.0%)(236, 238]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(236, 238]%0筆(0.0%)(238, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(238, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 242]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 242]%0筆(0.0%)(242, 244]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(242, 244]%0筆(0.0%)(244, 246]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(244, 246]%0筆(0.0%)(246, 248]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(246, 248]%0筆(0.0%)(248, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(248, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 252]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 252]%0筆(0.0%)(252, 254]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(252, 254]%0筆(0.0%)(254, 256]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(254, 256]%7筆(0.2%)(256, 258]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(256, 258]%0筆(0.0%)(258, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(258, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 262]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 262]%0筆(0.0%)(262, 264]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(262, 264]%0筆(0.0%)(264, 266]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(264, 266]%0筆(0.0%)(266, 268]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(266, 268]%0筆(0.0%)(268, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(268, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 272]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 272]%0筆(0.0%)(272, 274]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(272, 274]%0筆(0.0%)(274, 276]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(274, 276]%0筆(0.0%)(276, 278]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(276, 278]%0筆(0.0%)(278, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(278, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 282]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 282]%0筆(0.0%)(282, 284]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(282, 284]%0筆(0.0%)(284, 286]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(284, 286]%0筆(0.0%)(286, 288]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(286, 288]%0筆(0.0%)(288, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(288, 290]%0筆(0.0%)(290, 292]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(290, 292]%0筆(0.0%)(292, 294]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(292, 294]%0筆(0.0%)(294, 296]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(294, 296]%0筆(0.0%)(296, 298]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(296, 298]%0筆(0.0%)> 298%: 42筆 (1.33%)> 298%42筆(1.3%)

等距 10%(總覽)

(-60, -50]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(-60, -50]%14筆(0.4%)(-50, -40]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(-50, -40]%7筆(0.2%)(-40, -30]%: 63筆 (1.99%)(-40, -30]%63筆(2.0%)(-30, -20]%: 147筆 (4.64%)(-30, -20]%147筆(4.6%)(-20, -10]%: 396筆 (12.51%)(-20, -10]%396筆(12.5%)(-10, 0]%: 852筆 (26.92%)(-10, 0]%852筆(26.9%)(0, 10]%: 703筆 (22.21%)(0, 10]%703筆(22.2%)(10, 20]%: 355筆 (11.22%)(10, 20]%355筆(11.2%)(20, 30]%: 179筆 (5.66%)(20, 30]%179筆(5.7%)(30, 40]%: 85筆 (2.69%)(30, 40]%85筆(2.7%)(40, 50]%: 49筆 (1.55%)(40, 50]%49筆(1.5%)(50, 60]%: 56筆 (1.77%)(50, 60]%56筆(1.8%)(60, 70]%: 42筆 (1.33%)(60, 70]%42筆(1.3%)(70, 80]%: 35筆 (1.11%)(70, 80]%35筆(1.1%)(80, 90]%: 42筆 (1.33%)(80, 90]%42筆(1.3%)(90, 100]%: 49筆 (1.55%)(90, 100]%49筆(1.5%)(100, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(100, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 120]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(110, 120]%7筆(0.2%)(120, 130]%: 14筆 (0.44%)(120, 130]%14筆(0.4%)(130, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 160]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(150, 160]%7筆(0.2%)(160, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 190]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(180, 190]%7筆(0.2%)(190, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 230]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(220, 230]%7筆(0.2%)(230, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 260]%: 7筆 (0.22%)(250, 260]%7筆(0.2%)(260, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 290]%0筆(0.0%)> 290%: 42筆 (1.33%)> 290%42筆(1.3%)
資金曲線年化估算(實際複利路徑,幾何平均):+591.0%/年
依據:7 條互不重疊軌道,實際經過約 1786 天(約 4.9 年), 期末倍數跨軌道取幾何平均 = 12782.00x,換算年化 +591.0%。
這個數字比下方「各期間報酬表」的算術平均更貼近實際:算術平均會被少數爆賺的軌道拉高 (例如某一軌 50 倍、另一軌只有 1.3 倍,算術平均會被前者拉走),幾何平均才代表「典型一條軌道」的真實經驗, 也是唯一真正對應「一筆錢從頭到尾連續投入」這個情境的算法。

多軌資金曲線(查驗複利風險用)

把整段歷史攤開,畫出 7 條互不重疊、各自獨立複利的資金軌道(起始都是 1.0,y 軸是對數座標, 因為複利成長可以跨好幾個數量級,線性座標會看不出早期的細節)。這張圖用來直接檢查「不停損(或停損很鬆)時, 會不會有某一軌被少數重摔的標的拖累,一路很久墊在低點沒有回本」——如果真的發生,會在圖上看到某條線大幅落後其他條、 長時間貼在低檔;如果只是像本頁其他數字顯示的那樣穩定成長,代表不是靠犧牲少數軌道去平均出來的, 而是因為每一筆交易本身就是「當天全部標的等權重」的組合報酬,單一標的重摔只會拉低當天組合報酬的一小部分 (例如池子裡 40 檔,一檔摔 −100% 只讓當天組合報酬掉約 −2.5 個百分點),不會讓整條資金軌道腰斬。 目前最差的一軌是第 2 軌,期末倍數 6008.14x; 全部軌道中最低點是第 4 軌在 2021-12-06,掉到 0.94x。
各軌最低點:第1軌 2021-11-04 1.00x;第2軌 2021-11-05 1.00x;第3軌 2021-11-10 0.99x;第4軌 2021-12-06 0.94x;第5軌 2021-12-02 0.99x;第6軌 2021-11-11 1.00x;第7軌 2021-11-26 0.95x。

0.5x1x2x5x10x20x50x100x200x500x1000x2021-11-042022-08-292023-06-232024-04-172025-02-092025-12-042026-09-29第1軌 期末=6535.85x第1軌 6535.85x第2軌 期末=6008.14x第2軌 6008.14x第3軌 期末=17362.80x第3軌 17362.80x第4軌 期末=15042.63x第4軌 15042.63x第5軌 期末=18064.00x第5軌 18064.00x第6軌 期末=17116.02x第6軌 17116.02x第7軌 期末=17578.83x第7軌 17578.83x

選中交易的進出場目視檢查(最佳指標組合+最佳操作方式)

動態換股模式尚未支援進出場時線圖。

選股規則=動能/均線乖離/RSI 三個指標在同一訊號日的百分位排名加權平均,指標窗格配合持有期換算,跟操作方式(槓桿/停損/停利)完全脫鉤, 所以指標好壞與操作方式好壞分開判斷。權重與 K 用「排名分數」(依資金模式,見上方)窮舉搜尋;試驗組數愈多不代表愈可靠, 請對照「預設等權重組合」與「全買」兩個基準,不要只看單一數字。本頁不構成投資建議。