InvestMarket 指標回測(固定最佳操作方式,搜尋選股指標・動態換股模式)

本次回測參數(搜尋範圍 → 找到的最佳值;沒有寫「搜尋範圍」的欄位都是固定值,不搜尋)
・操作方式(固定值,沿用①頁「操作方式回測」最佳,不在這頁搜尋):槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)
・選股指標權重搜尋範圍:動能=0~1(範圍)、均線乖離=0~1(範圍)、RSI(強勢)=0~1(範圍)
  → 找到最佳組合:動能×0.5 + 均線乖離×0.0 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
・每日取前 K 名:K∈[3, 4, 5] → 找到最佳 K=5
・持有方式:動態換股;幾日未進前K名就換股,搜尋範圍:x∈3日 → 找到最佳 x=3日
  跌出第幾名就換股,搜尋範圍:y∈第6~15名 → 找到最佳 y=第15名
  x/y 條件關係(固定值,不搜尋):OR,任一成立即可

產生時間:2026-09-29 21:43:00 台灣時間(花費 20分21秒)
固定操作方式:槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)(來源:操作方式回測最佳)
持有方式:動態換股(依排名持續監控,無固定到期);找到最佳=連續 3 日未進前K名,或排名跌出第 15 名,就換成當天前K名裡還沒被持有的最高排名標的;兩條件關係:OR,任一成立即可(固定值,不搜尋;x/y 的搜尋範圍見上方「本次回測參數」)
每日取排名前 K 名等權重(K∈[3, 4, 5] → 找到最佳 K=5);標的 42 檔;進場樣本 1236(訊號日間隔 1 日曆日,沿用操作方式回測); 指標窗格 10 個交易日(配合持有 14 日曆日換算,約 5/7 比例);期間共切 6 段、全部段都評估(沿用操作方式回測的期間數與切法,三頁一致,數字才能互相比較;純公式規則不需要訓練,不用留暖身期) ;搜尋 15 組權重×K×x×y(動態換股貝氏搜尋(optuna-tpe,15/15 組))

沿用操作方式回測的資金模式與排名目標(口徑一致才能比較「選股」vs「全買」):資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入)

指標回測控制頁 ・ 操作方式回測 ・ 每日排名

✅ 搜尋出的權重勝過預設等權重組合(判定口徑=複利:資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入))
★判定口徑:複利 對照:固定資金口徑
組合年化 %
(資金週轉,
排名依據)
平均實際
持有日
每筆等效複利率
(資金曲線口徑) %
最差期間
min_pc %
年化固定資金 %每筆平均
fx_avg %
最差期間
fx_min %
最佳指標組合+760.513.3+8.133+0.859+271.1+9.849+4.977
預設等權重組合(三指標各1/3、前3名)+332.914.7+6.095+0.577+279.9+11.301+2.127
(最佳組合同時勝過預設指標組合)
⚠ 注意:依判定口徑雖勝過全買,但在「固定資金」口徑下平均反而輸給全買(+9.849% vs +11.301%)。意思是選股讓「每筆平均」變高,但集中持股讓波動變大;若你實際會把獲利滾入下一筆,請以複利口徑為準。另外「最佳」是從多次試驗挑出的,含挑選偏誤(in-sample),樣本外結果通常較差。
使用組合:動能×0.5 + 均線乖離×0.0 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
每日前 5 名
3 個指標都是純技術規則(不是訓練出來的模型):動能=10個交易日報酬率;均線乖離=短均(10日)/長均(8倍)-1; RSI(強勢)=Wilder平滑 RSI 取「數值高」方向。權重與 K 用同一批評估期間窮舉搜尋出來(不是訓練模型,不需要 walk-forward,但權重/K 的選擇本身 看過全部評估期間的資料,跟操作方式回測選最佳參數一樣有事後選擇偏誤,正式使用前建議做樣本外驗證)。
「預設等權重組合」=固定基準線:三個指標權重各 1/3、每日前 3 名,不經搜尋;用來看「搜尋出來的權重」有沒有比不搜尋更好。

最佳組合:各期間(out-of-sample)

期間(訊號日)日曆日數每筆等效複利率 %選中標的單筆平均%(權益,算術) 整段期間報酬 %
(各路徑複利後平均)
固定資金每筆平均 %
(不複利)
固定資金整段累加 %每條路徑平均幾筆候選訊號日數軌道獲利比例
2021-10-25~2022-08-20300+0.859+4.974+102.73+4.977+411.282.73100%
2022-08-21~2023-06-16300+1.079+6.811+202.12+6.811+701.61033100%
2023-06-17~2024-04-11300+2.022+16.066+644.99+16.067+1611.9100.33100%
2024-04-12~2025-02-05300+1.097+7.795+204.19+7.801+795.11023100%
2025-02-06~2025-12-02300+1.680+13.185+381.48+13.185+1243.894.33100%
2025-12-03~2026-09-29301+1.427+10.250+377.61+10.251+1130.9110.33100%
全部期間(複利/累加)1801+1.371+319078.89+9.947+5894.5592.618

前 12 名指標組合

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
1每日前 5 名+8.133+760.513.3+0.859+1.360+9.849x=3日/y=第15名/OR動能×0.5 + 均線乖離×0.0 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
2每日前 5 名+8.028+513.215.5+0.758+1.539+12.114x=3日/y=第14名/OR動能×0.5 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
3每日前 4 名+6.911+361.915.9+0.834+2.106+12.423x=3日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.4 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
4每日前 4 名+6.639+528.912.8+0.897+1.618+9.828x=3日/y=第8名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
5每日前 5 名+6.491+498.612.8+0.591+1.321+8.909x=3日/y=第14名/OR動能×0.5 + 均線乖離×0.0 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
6每日前 4 名+6.167+415.513.3+0.884+1.662+9.052x=3日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
7每日前 3 名+6.095+332.914.7+0.577+2.205+11.301x=3日/y=第10名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
8每日前 4 名+5.849+275.615.7+0.971+1.817+10.693x=3日/y=第15名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
9每日前 5 名+5.686+228.417.0+0.266+1.403+12.222x=3日/y=第15名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
10每日前 4 名+5.201+362.412.1+1.141+1.654+8.206x=3日/y=第13名/OR動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.0 + RSI(強勢)×0.9
11每日前 3 名+5.053+288.213.3-0.776+2.029+11.345x=3日/y=第10名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
12每日前 3 名+5.035+107.424.6-0.954+1.845+18.011x=3日/y=第11名/OR動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×0.8 + RSI(強勢)×0.2

報酬率分佈(單筆交易,查錯用)

每一筆是「一個標的、一個進場日」的實際模擬結果(權益%:已含槓桿、手續費與滑價,持有最長 13 日曆日)。用來檢查有沒有不合理的地方(例如停損筆的報酬遠超過停損設定、到期筆全部為正等)。(動態換股模式:每筆代表一次真正的排名換股或價格出場,不含期間結束時的強制標記;共 4149 筆。)
強平的位置:價格跌到權益虧損約 90%(=1 ÷ 槓桿 × 0.9,交易所會在保證金耗盡之前就強制平倉,不會等到虧 100%)就視為強平,所以「不設停損」時的大虧會集中在 −90% 再加上手續費/滑價(約 −91% ~ −93%),而不是 −100%;強平在表中歸類為「停損」。若遇跳空一開盤就穿過強平價,才會虧得更多(表中「跳空停損」的最小值)。

最佳指標組合(動態換股,整段歷史,全部軌道合併)

筆數平均%中位數%標準差%勝率%最小%P5P25P75P95最大%
4149+10.47+1.7645.1155.9-65.16-24.50-7.07+13.79+65.14+531.38

等距 2%(細節)

(-66, -64]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(-66, -64]%7筆(0.2%)(-64, -62]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-64, -62]%0筆(0.0%)(-62, -60]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-62, -60]%0筆(0.0%)(-60, -58]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-60, -58]%0筆(0.0%)(-58, -56]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-58, -56]%0筆(0.0%)(-56, -54]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-56, -54]%0筆(0.0%)(-54, -52]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(-54, -52]%7筆(0.2%)(-52, -50]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(-52, -50]%7筆(0.2%)(-50, -48]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(-50, -48]%7筆(0.2%)(-48, -46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-48, -46]%0筆(0.0%)(-46, -44]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(-46, -44]%14筆(0.3%)(-44, -42]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(-44, -42]%7筆(0.2%)(-42, -40]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(-42, -40]%7筆(0.2%)(-40, -38]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(-40, -38]%7筆(0.2%)(-38, -36]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-38, -36]%0筆(0.0%)(-36, -34]%: 21筆 (0.51%)(-36, -34]%21筆(0.5%)(-34, -32]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(-34, -32]%14筆(0.3%)(-32, -30]%: 21筆 (0.51%)(-32, -30]%21筆(0.5%)(-30, -28]%: 21筆 (0.51%)(-30, -28]%21筆(0.5%)(-28, -26]%: 35筆 (0.84%)(-28, -26]%35筆(0.8%)(-26, -24]%: 35筆 (0.84%)(-26, -24]%35筆(0.8%)(-24, -22]%: 35筆 (0.84%)(-24, -22]%35筆(0.8%)(-22, -20]%: 31筆 (0.75%)(-22, -20]%31筆(0.7%)(-20, -18]%: 49筆 (1.18%)(-20, -18]%49筆(1.2%)(-18, -16]%: 84筆 (2.02%)(-18, -16]%84筆(2.0%)(-16, -14]%: 101筆 (2.43%)(-16, -14]%101筆(2.4%)(-14, -12]%: 115筆 (2.77%)(-14, -12]%115筆(2.8%)(-12, -10]%: 144筆 (3.47%)(-12, -10]%144筆(3.5%)(-10, -8]%: 190筆 (4.58%)(-10, -8]%190筆(4.6%)(-8, -6]%: 169筆 (4.07%)(-8, -6]%169筆(4.1%)(-6, -4]%: 184筆 (4.43%)(-6, -4]%184筆(4.4%)(-4, -2]%: 258筆 (6.22%)(-4, -2]%258筆(6.2%)(-2, 0]%: 261筆 (6.29%)(-2, 0]%261筆(6.3%)(0, 2]%: 261筆 (6.29%)(0, 2]%261筆(6.3%)(2, 4]%: 221筆 (5.33%)(2, 4]%221筆(5.3%)(4, 6]%: 246筆 (5.93%)(4, 6]%246筆(5.9%)(6, 8]%: 161筆 (3.88%)(6, 8]%161筆(3.9%)(8, 10]%: 177筆 (4.27%)(8, 10]%177筆(4.3%)(10, 12]%: 115筆 (2.77%)(10, 12]%115筆(2.8%)(12, 14]%: 112筆 (2.70%)(12, 14]%112筆(2.7%)(14, 16]%: 64筆 (1.54%)(14, 16]%64筆(1.5%)(16, 18]%: 105筆 (2.53%)(16, 18]%105筆(2.5%)(18, 20]%: 70筆 (1.69%)(18, 20]%70筆(1.7%)(20, 22]%: 50筆 (1.21%)(20, 22]%50筆(1.2%)(22, 24]%: 53筆 (1.28%)(22, 24]%53筆(1.3%)(24, 26]%: 30筆 (0.72%)(24, 26]%30筆(0.7%)(26, 28]%: 64筆 (1.54%)(26, 28]%64筆(1.5%)(28, 30]%: 35筆 (0.84%)(28, 30]%35筆(0.8%)(30, 32]%: 28筆 (0.67%)(30, 32]%28筆(0.7%)(32, 34]%: 49筆 (1.18%)(32, 34]%49筆(1.2%)(34, 36]%: 22筆 (0.53%)(34, 36]%22筆(0.5%)(36, 38]%: 21筆 (0.51%)(36, 38]%21筆(0.5%)(38, 40]%: 28筆 (0.67%)(38, 40]%28筆(0.7%)(40, 42]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(40, 42]%14筆(0.3%)(42, 44]%: 28筆 (0.67%)(42, 44]%28筆(0.7%)(44, 46]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(44, 46]%14筆(0.3%)(46, 48]%: 21筆 (0.51%)(46, 48]%21筆(0.5%)(48, 50]%: 21筆 (0.51%)(48, 50]%21筆(0.5%)(50, 52]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(50, 52]%7筆(0.2%)(52, 54]%: 35筆 (0.84%)(52, 54]%35筆(0.8%)(54, 56]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(54, 56]%0筆(0.0%)(56, 58]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(56, 58]%14筆(0.3%)(58, 60]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(58, 60]%0筆(0.0%)(60, 62]%: 21筆 (0.51%)(60, 62]%21筆(0.5%)(62, 64]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(62, 64]%7筆(0.2%)(64, 66]%: 28筆 (0.67%)(64, 66]%28筆(0.7%)(66, 68]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(66, 68]%0筆(0.0%)(68, 70]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(68, 70]%14筆(0.3%)(70, 72]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(70, 72]%7筆(0.2%)(72, 74]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(72, 74]%0筆(0.0%)(74, 76]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(74, 76]%0筆(0.0%)(76, 78]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(76, 78]%0筆(0.0%)(78, 80]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(78, 80]%7筆(0.2%)(80, 82]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(80, 82]%0筆(0.0%)(82, 84]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(82, 84]%14筆(0.3%)(84, 86]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(84, 86]%14筆(0.3%)(86, 88]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(86, 88]%7筆(0.2%)(88, 90]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(88, 90]%7筆(0.2%)(90, 92]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(90, 92]%0筆(0.0%)(92, 94]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(92, 94]%0筆(0.0%)(94, 96]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(94, 96]%7筆(0.2%)(96, 98]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(96, 98]%7筆(0.2%)(98, 100]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(98, 100]%7筆(0.2%)(100, 102]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(100, 102]%0筆(0.0%)(102, 104]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(102, 104]%0筆(0.0%)(104, 106]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(104, 106]%0筆(0.0%)(106, 108]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(106, 108]%0筆(0.0%)(108, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(108, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 112]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 112]%0筆(0.0%)(112, 114]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(112, 114]%0筆(0.0%)(114, 116]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(114, 116]%7筆(0.2%)(116, 118]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(116, 118]%14筆(0.3%)(118, 120]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(118, 120]%0筆(0.0%)(120, 122]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(120, 122]%7筆(0.2%)(122, 124]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(122, 124]%0筆(0.0%)(124, 126]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(124, 126]%0筆(0.0%)(126, 128]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(126, 128]%7筆(0.2%)(128, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(128, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 132]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 132]%0筆(0.0%)(132, 134]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(132, 134]%0筆(0.0%)(134, 136]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(134, 136]%0筆(0.0%)(136, 138]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(136, 138]%0筆(0.0%)(138, 140]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(138, 140]%7筆(0.2%)(140, 142]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 142]%0筆(0.0%)(142, 144]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(142, 144]%0筆(0.0%)(144, 146]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(144, 146]%0筆(0.0%)(146, 148]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(146, 148]%0筆(0.0%)(148, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(148, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 152]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 152]%0筆(0.0%)(152, 154]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(152, 154]%0筆(0.0%)(154, 156]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(154, 156]%0筆(0.0%)(156, 158]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(156, 158]%0筆(0.0%)(158, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(158, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 162]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 162]%0筆(0.0%)(162, 164]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(162, 164]%0筆(0.0%)(164, 166]%: 21筆 (0.51%)(164, 166]%21筆(0.5%)(166, 168]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(166, 168]%0筆(0.0%)(168, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(168, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 172]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 172]%0筆(0.0%)(172, 174]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(172, 174]%0筆(0.0%)(174, 176]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(174, 176]%0筆(0.0%)(176, 178]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(176, 178]%0筆(0.0%)(178, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(178, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 182]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(180, 182]%7筆(0.2%)(182, 184]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(182, 184]%0筆(0.0%)(184, 186]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(184, 186]%0筆(0.0%)(186, 188]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(186, 188]%0筆(0.0%)(188, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(188, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 192]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 192]%0筆(0.0%)(192, 194]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(192, 194]%0筆(0.0%)(194, 196]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(194, 196]%0筆(0.0%)(196, 198]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(196, 198]%0筆(0.0%)(198, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(198, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 202]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 202]%0筆(0.0%)(202, 204]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(202, 204]%0筆(0.0%)(204, 206]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(204, 206]%0筆(0.0%)(206, 208]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(206, 208]%0筆(0.0%)(208, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(208, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 212]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 212]%0筆(0.0%)(212, 214]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(212, 214]%0筆(0.0%)(214, 216]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(214, 216]%0筆(0.0%)(216, 218]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(216, 218]%0筆(0.0%)(218, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(218, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 222]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 222]%0筆(0.0%)(222, 224]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(222, 224]%0筆(0.0%)(224, 226]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(224, 226]%0筆(0.0%)(226, 228]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(226, 228]%0筆(0.0%)(228, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(228, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 232]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 232]%0筆(0.0%)(232, 234]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(232, 234]%0筆(0.0%)(234, 236]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(234, 236]%0筆(0.0%)(236, 238]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(236, 238]%0筆(0.0%)(238, 240]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(238, 240]%7筆(0.2%)(240, 242]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 242]%0筆(0.0%)(242, 244]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(242, 244]%0筆(0.0%)(244, 246]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(244, 246]%0筆(0.0%)(246, 248]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(246, 248]%0筆(0.0%)(248, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(248, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 252]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 252]%0筆(0.0%)(252, 254]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(252, 254]%7筆(0.2%)(254, 256]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(254, 256]%0筆(0.0%)(256, 258]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(256, 258]%0筆(0.0%)(258, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(258, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 262]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 262]%0筆(0.0%)(262, 264]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(262, 264]%0筆(0.0%)(264, 266]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(264, 266]%0筆(0.0%)(266, 268]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(266, 268]%0筆(0.0%)(268, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(268, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 272]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 272]%0筆(0.0%)(272, 274]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(272, 274]%0筆(0.0%)(274, 276]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(274, 276]%0筆(0.0%)(276, 278]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(276, 278]%0筆(0.0%)(278, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(278, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 282]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 282]%0筆(0.0%)(282, 284]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(282, 284]%0筆(0.0%)(284, 286]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(284, 286]%0筆(0.0%)(286, 288]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(286, 288]%0筆(0.0%)(288, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(288, 290]%0筆(0.0%)(290, 292]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(290, 292]%0筆(0.0%)(292, 294]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(292, 294]%0筆(0.0%)(294, 296]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(294, 296]%0筆(0.0%)(296, 298]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(296, 298]%0筆(0.0%)> 298%: 21筆 (0.51%)> 298%21筆(0.5%)

等距 10%(總覽)

(-70, -60]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(-70, -60]%7筆(0.2%)(-60, -50]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(-60, -50]%14筆(0.3%)(-50, -40]%: 35筆 (0.84%)(-50, -40]%35筆(0.8%)(-40, -30]%: 63筆 (1.52%)(-40, -30]%63筆(1.5%)(-30, -20]%: 157筆 (3.78%)(-30, -20]%157筆(3.8%)(-20, -10]%: 493筆 (11.88%)(-20, -10]%493筆(11.9%)(-10, 0]%: 1062筆 (25.60%)(-10, 0]%1062筆(25.6%)(0, 10]%: 1066筆 (25.69%)(0, 10]%1066筆(25.7%)(10, 20]%: 466筆 (11.23%)(10, 20]%466筆(11.2%)(20, 30]%: 232筆 (5.59%)(20, 30]%232筆(5.6%)(30, 40]%: 148筆 (3.57%)(30, 40]%148筆(3.6%)(40, 50]%: 98筆 (2.36%)(40, 50]%98筆(2.4%)(50, 60]%: 56筆 (1.35%)(50, 60]%56筆(1.3%)(60, 70]%: 70筆 (1.69%)(60, 70]%70筆(1.7%)(70, 80]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(70, 80]%14筆(0.3%)(80, 90]%: 42筆 (1.01%)(80, 90]%42筆(1.0%)(90, 100]%: 21筆 (0.51%)(90, 100]%21筆(0.5%)(100, 110]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(100, 110]%0筆(0.0%)(110, 120]%: 21筆 (0.51%)(110, 120]%21筆(0.5%)(120, 130]%: 14筆 (0.34%)(120, 130]%14筆(0.3%)(130, 140]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(130, 140]%7筆(0.2%)(140, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 170]%: 21筆 (0.51%)(160, 170]%21筆(0.5%)(170, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 190]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(180, 190]%7筆(0.2%)(190, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 240]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(230, 240]%7筆(0.2%)(240, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 260]%: 7筆 (0.17%)(250, 260]%7筆(0.2%)(260, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 290]%0筆(0.0%)> 290%: 21筆 (0.51%)> 290%21筆(0.5%)
資金曲線年化估算(實際複利路徑,幾何平均):+696.7%/年
依據:7 條互不重疊軌道,實際經過約 1786 天(約 4.9 年), 期末倍數跨軌道取幾何平均 = 25649.00x,換算年化 +696.7%。
這個數字比下方「各期間報酬表」的算術平均更貼近實際:算術平均會被少數爆賺的軌道拉高 (例如某一軌 50 倍、另一軌只有 1.3 倍,算術平均會被前者拉走),幾何平均才代表「典型一條軌道」的真實經驗, 也是唯一真正對應「一筆錢從頭到尾連續投入」這個情境的算法。

多軌資金曲線(查驗複利風險用)

把整段歷史攤開,畫出 7 條互不重疊、各自獨立複利的資金軌道(起始都是 1.0,y 軸是對數座標, 因為複利成長可以跨好幾個數量級,線性座標會看不出早期的細節)。這張圖用來直接檢查「不停損(或停損很鬆)時, 會不會有某一軌被少數重摔的標的拖累,一路很久墊在低點沒有回本」——如果真的發生,會在圖上看到某條線大幅落後其他條、 長時間貼在低檔;如果只是像本頁其他數字顯示的那樣穩定成長,代表不是靠犧牲少數軌道去平均出來的, 而是因為每一筆交易本身就是「當天全部標的等權重」的組合報酬,單一標的重摔只會拉低當天組合報酬的一小部分 (例如池子裡 40 檔,一檔摔 −100% 只讓當天組合報酬掉約 −2.5 個百分點),不會讓整條資金軌道腰斬。 目前最差的一軌是第 7 軌,期末倍數 16169.46x; 全部軌道中最低點是第 4 軌在 2022-03-09,掉到 0.89x。
各軌最低點:第1軌 2021-12-06 0.97x;第2軌 2021-12-06 0.99x;第3軌 2022-03-09 0.93x;第4軌 2022-03-09 0.89x;第5軌 2021-11-15 0.99x;第6軌 2022-03-09 0.99x;第7軌 2022-03-09 0.92x。

0.5x1x2x5x10x20x50x100x200x500x1000x2021-11-042022-08-292023-06-232024-04-172025-02-092025-12-042026-09-29第1軌 期末=49240.68x第1軌 49240.68x第2軌 期末=47631.19x第2軌 47631.19x第3軌 期末=23387.57x第3軌 23387.57x第4軌 期末=21118.52x第4軌 21118.52x第5軌 期末=21314.57x第5軌 21314.57x第6軌 期末=18291.82x第6軌 18291.82x第7軌 期末=16169.46x第7軌 16169.46x

選中交易的進出場目視檢查(最佳指標組合+最佳操作方式)

動態換股模式尚未支援進出場時線圖。

選股規則=動能/均線乖離/RSI 三個指標在同一訊號日的百分位排名加權平均,指標窗格配合持有期換算,跟操作方式(槓桿/停損/停利)完全脫鉤, 所以指標好壞與操作方式好壞分開判斷。權重與 K 用「排名分數」(依資金模式,見上方)窮舉搜尋;試驗組數愈多不代表愈可靠, 請對照「預設等權重組合」與「全買」兩個基準,不要只看單一數字。本頁不構成投資建議。