InvestMarket 指標回測(固定最佳操作方式,搜尋選股指標・動態換股模式)

產生時間:2026-09-29 19:04:58 台灣時間(花費 27分16秒)
固定操作方式:槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)(來源:操作方式回測最佳)
持有方式:動態換股(依排名持續監控,無固定到期);連續 3 日未進前K名,或排名跌出第 6 名,就換成當天前K名裡還沒被持有的最高排名標的;兩條件關係:OR,任一成立即可(x/y/關係固定不搜尋,換股快慢請到「③ 操作回測(依指標選股重調)」頁調整搜尋範圍)
每日取排名前 K 名等權重(K=4(搜尋出的最佳));標的 42 檔;進場樣本 1236(訊號日間隔 1 日曆日,沿用操作方式回測); 指標窗格 10 個交易日(配合持有 14 日曆日換算,約 5/7 比例);期間共切 6 段、全部段都評估(沿用操作方式回測的期間數與切法,三頁一致,數字才能互相比較;純公式規則不需要訓練,不用留暖身期) ;搜尋 15 組權重×K(動態換股貝氏搜尋(optuna-tpe,15/15 組))

沿用操作方式回測的資金模式與排名目標(口徑一致才能比較「選股」vs「全買」):資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入)

指標回測控制頁 ・ 操作方式回測 ・ 每日排名

✅ 搜尋出的權重勝過預設等權重組合(判定口徑=複利:資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入))
★判定口徑:複利 對照:固定資金口徑
組合年化 %
(資金週轉,
排名依據)
平均實際
持有日
每筆等效複利率
(資金曲線口徑) %
最差期間
min_pc %
年化固定資金 %每筆平均
fx_avg %
最差期間
fx_min %
最佳指標組合+1524.09.0+7.112+1.146+360.7+8.891+5.287
預設等權重組合(三指標各1/3、前3名)+331.812.0+4.945+0.846+291.6+9.624+3.738
(最佳組合同時勝過預設指標組合)
⚠ 注意:依判定口徑雖勝過全買,但在「固定資金」口徑下平均反而輸給全買(+8.891% vs +9.624%)。意思是選股讓「每筆平均」變高,但集中持股讓波動變大;若你實際會把獲利滾入下一筆,請以複利口徑為準。另外「最佳」是從多次試驗挑出的,含挑選偏誤(in-sample),樣本外結果通常較差。
使用組合:動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.1 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
每日前 4 名
3 個指標都是純技術規則(不是訓練出來的模型):動能=10個交易日報酬率;均線乖離=短均(10日)/長均(8倍)-1; RSI(強勢)=Wilder平滑 RSI 取「數值高」方向。權重與 K 用同一批評估期間窮舉搜尋出來(不是訓練模型,不需要 walk-forward,但權重/K 的選擇本身 看過全部評估期間的資料,跟操作方式回測選最佳參數一樣有事後選擇偏誤,正式使用前建議做樣本外驗證)。
「預設等權重組合」=固定基準線:三個指標權重各 1/3、每日前 3 名,不經搜尋;用來看「搜尋出來的權重」有沒有比不搜尋更好。

最佳組合:各期間(out-of-sample)

期間(訊號日)日曆日數每筆等效複利率 %選中標的單筆平均%(權益,算術) 整段期間報酬 %
(各路徑複利後平均)
固定資金每筆平均 %
(不複利)
固定資金整段累加 %每條路徑平均幾筆候選訊號日數軌道獲利比例
2021-10-25~2022-08-20300+1.146+5.287+214.97+5.287+532.3100.73100%
2022-08-21~2023-06-16300+1.247+6.718+312.24+6.719+768.1114.33100%
2023-06-17~2024-04-11300+2.136+11.925+936.80+11.925+1319.7110.73100%
2024-04-12~2025-02-05300+2.090+10.882+907.68+10.882+1215.1111.73100%
2025-02-06~2025-12-02300+2.127+9.633+920.04+9.633+1062.9110.33100%
2025-12-03~2026-09-29301+1.974+8.899+890.54+8.898+1044.1117.33100%
全部期間(複利/累加)1801+1.795+13706446.57+8.936+5942.266518

前 12 名指標組合

#設定每筆等效複利率 %
(資金曲線口徑,
排名依據)
年化 %
(複利,
日曆口徑,僅供對照)
平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%動態換股參數
(本次搜尋固定值)
權重組合
1每日前 4 名+7.112+1524.09.0+1.146+1.786+8.891x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.4 + 均線乖離×0.1 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
2每日前 4 名+6.353+1257.88.6+1.075+1.789+8.924x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.1 + RSI(強勢)×0.6
3每日前 4 名+5.478+550.010.4+0.746+1.668+8.693x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
4每日前 4 名+5.361+934.58.2+0.778+1.596+8.334x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.0 + RSI(強勢)×0.6
5每日前 4 名+5.277+816.98.5+1.070+1.710+8.659x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.5 + 均線乖離×0.1 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
6每日前 5 名+5.247+805.78.5+0.584+1.135+8.053x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
7每日前 4 名+5.132+510.810.1+0.776+1.503+8.439x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
8每日前 4 名+4.979+193.616.5+0.630+1.598+12.759x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
9每日前 4 名+4.960+529.19.6+0.625+1.406+8.537x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.1
10每日前 3 名+4.945+331.812.0+0.846+2.176+9.624x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
11每日前 3 名+4.823+233.814.3+1.224+2.363+12.059x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.5 + RSI(強勢)×0.4
12每日前 5 名+4.776+702.88.2+0.563+1.128+7.820x=3日/y=第6名/OR動能×0.7 + 均線乖離×0.2 + RSI(強勢)×0.1

報酬率分佈(單筆交易,查錯用)

每一筆是「一個標的、一個進場日」的實際模擬結果(權益%:已含槓桿、手續費與滑價,持有最長 9 日曆日)。用來檢查有沒有不合理的地方(例如停損筆的報酬遠超過停損設定、到期筆全部為正等)。(動態換股模式:每筆代表一次真正的排名換股或價格出場,不含期間結束時的強制標記;共 4650 筆。)
強平的位置:價格跌到權益虧損約 90%(=1 ÷ 槓桿 × 0.9,交易所會在保證金耗盡之前就強制平倉,不會等到虧 100%)就視為強平,所以「不設停損」時的大虧會集中在 −90% 再加上手續費/滑價(約 −91% ~ −93%),而不是 −100%;強平在表中歸類為「停損」。若遇跳空一開盤就穿過強平價,才會虧得更多(表中「跳空停損」的最小值)。

最佳指標組合(動態換股,整段歷史,全部軌道合併)

筆數平均%中位數%標準差%勝率%最小%P5P25P75P95最大%
4650+9.59+1.5534.8255.9-65.16-16.89-4.55+12.73+57.27+404.73

等距 2%(細節)

(-66, -64]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(-66, -64]%7筆(0.2%)(-64, -62]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-64, -62]%0筆(0.0%)(-62, -60]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-62, -60]%0筆(0.0%)(-60, -58]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-60, -58]%0筆(0.0%)(-58, -56]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-58, -56]%0筆(0.0%)(-56, -54]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-56, -54]%0筆(0.0%)(-54, -52]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-54, -52]%0筆(0.0%)(-52, -50]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-52, -50]%0筆(0.0%)(-50, -48]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-50, -48]%0筆(0.0%)(-48, -46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-48, -46]%0筆(0.0%)(-46, -44]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-46, -44]%0筆(0.0%)(-44, -42]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-44, -42]%0筆(0.0%)(-42, -40]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-42, -40]%0筆(0.0%)(-40, -38]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-40, -38]%0筆(0.0%)(-38, -36]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-38, -36]%0筆(0.0%)(-36, -34]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-36, -34]%0筆(0.0%)(-34, -32]%: 21筆 (0.45%)(-34, -32]%21筆(0.5%)(-32, -30]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(-32, -30]%7筆(0.2%)(-30, -28]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(-30, -28]%14筆(0.3%)(-28, -26]%: 35筆 (0.75%)(-28, -26]%35筆(0.8%)(-26, -24]%: 28筆 (0.60%)(-26, -24]%28筆(0.6%)(-24, -22]%: 21筆 (0.45%)(-24, -22]%21筆(0.5%)(-22, -20]%: 28筆 (0.60%)(-22, -20]%28筆(0.6%)(-20, -18]%: 21筆 (0.45%)(-20, -18]%21筆(0.5%)(-18, -16]%: 70筆 (1.51%)(-18, -16]%70筆(1.5%)(-16, -14]%: 35筆 (0.75%)(-16, -14]%35筆(0.8%)(-14, -12]%: 100筆 (2.15%)(-14, -12]%100筆(2.2%)(-12, -10]%: 94筆 (2.02%)(-12, -10]%94筆(2.0%)(-10, -8]%: 191筆 (4.11%)(-10, -8]%191筆(4.1%)(-8, -6]%: 210筆 (4.52%)(-8, -6]%210筆(4.5%)(-6, -4]%: 347筆 (7.46%)(-6, -4]%347筆(7.5%)(-4, -2]%: 378筆 (8.13%)(-4, -2]%378筆(8.1%)(-2, 0]%: 442筆 (9.51%)(-2, 0]%442筆(9.5%)(0, 2]%: 352筆 (7.57%)(0, 2]%352筆(7.6%)(2, 4]%: 282筆 (6.06%)(2, 4]%282筆(6.1%)(4, 6]%: 258筆 (5.55%)(4, 6]%258筆(5.5%)(6, 8]%: 197筆 (4.24%)(6, 8]%197筆(4.2%)(8, 10]%: 125筆 (2.69%)(8, 10]%125筆(2.7%)(10, 12]%: 176筆 (3.78%)(10, 12]%176筆(3.8%)(12, 14]%: 164筆 (3.53%)(12, 14]%164筆(3.5%)(14, 16]%: 105筆 (2.26%)(14, 16]%105筆(2.3%)(16, 18]%: 70筆 (1.51%)(16, 18]%70筆(1.5%)(18, 20]%: 70筆 (1.51%)(18, 20]%70筆(1.5%)(20, 22]%: 121筆 (2.60%)(20, 22]%121筆(2.6%)(22, 24]%: 77筆 (1.66%)(22, 24]%77筆(1.7%)(24, 26]%: 28筆 (0.60%)(24, 26]%28筆(0.6%)(26, 28]%: 35筆 (0.75%)(26, 28]%35筆(0.8%)(28, 30]%: 29筆 (0.62%)(28, 30]%29筆(0.6%)(30, 32]%: 28筆 (0.60%)(30, 32]%28筆(0.6%)(32, 34]%: 29筆 (0.62%)(32, 34]%29筆(0.6%)(34, 36]%: 28筆 (0.60%)(34, 36]%28筆(0.6%)(36, 38]%: 21筆 (0.45%)(36, 38]%21筆(0.5%)(38, 40]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(38, 40]%14筆(0.3%)(40, 42]%: 28筆 (0.60%)(40, 42]%28筆(0.6%)(42, 44]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(42, 44]%7筆(0.2%)(44, 46]%: 35筆 (0.75%)(44, 46]%35筆(0.8%)(46, 48]%: 21筆 (0.45%)(46, 48]%21筆(0.5%)(48, 50]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(48, 50]%14筆(0.3%)(50, 52]%: 21筆 (0.45%)(50, 52]%21筆(0.5%)(52, 54]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(52, 54]%14筆(0.3%)(54, 56]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(54, 56]%14筆(0.3%)(56, 58]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(56, 58]%7筆(0.2%)(58, 60]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(58, 60]%14筆(0.3%)(60, 62]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(60, 62]%7筆(0.2%)(62, 64]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(62, 64]%7筆(0.2%)(64, 66]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(64, 66]%7筆(0.2%)(66, 68]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(66, 68]%7筆(0.2%)(68, 70]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(68, 70]%14筆(0.3%)(70, 72]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(70, 72]%0筆(0.0%)(72, 74]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(72, 74]%14筆(0.3%)(74, 76]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(74, 76]%7筆(0.2%)(76, 78]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(76, 78]%0筆(0.0%)(78, 80]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(78, 80]%0筆(0.0%)(80, 82]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(80, 82]%7筆(0.2%)(82, 84]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(82, 84]%7筆(0.2%)(84, 86]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(84, 86]%7筆(0.2%)(86, 88]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(86, 88]%0筆(0.0%)(88, 90]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(88, 90]%14筆(0.3%)(90, 92]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(90, 92]%7筆(0.2%)(92, 94]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(92, 94]%7筆(0.2%)(94, 96]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(94, 96]%7筆(0.2%)(96, 98]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(96, 98]%7筆(0.2%)(98, 100]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(98, 100]%0筆(0.0%)(100, 102]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(100, 102]%0筆(0.0%)(102, 104]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(102, 104]%0筆(0.0%)(104, 106]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(104, 106]%0筆(0.0%)(106, 108]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(106, 108]%0筆(0.0%)(108, 110]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(108, 110]%7筆(0.2%)(110, 112]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 112]%0筆(0.0%)(112, 114]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(112, 114]%7筆(0.2%)(114, 116]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(114, 116]%0筆(0.0%)(116, 118]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(116, 118]%7筆(0.2%)(118, 120]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(118, 120]%0筆(0.0%)(120, 122]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(120, 122]%0筆(0.0%)(122, 124]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(122, 124]%0筆(0.0%)(124, 126]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(124, 126]%0筆(0.0%)(126, 128]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(126, 128]%0筆(0.0%)(128, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(128, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 132]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 132]%0筆(0.0%)(132, 134]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(132, 134]%0筆(0.0%)(134, 136]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(134, 136]%0筆(0.0%)(136, 138]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(136, 138]%0筆(0.0%)(138, 140]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(138, 140]%7筆(0.2%)(140, 142]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 142]%0筆(0.0%)(142, 144]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(142, 144]%7筆(0.2%)(144, 146]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(144, 146]%0筆(0.0%)(146, 148]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(146, 148]%0筆(0.0%)(148, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(148, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 152]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 152]%0筆(0.0%)(152, 154]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(152, 154]%7筆(0.2%)(154, 156]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(154, 156]%0筆(0.0%)(156, 158]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(156, 158]%0筆(0.0%)(158, 160]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(158, 160]%0筆(0.0%)(160, 162]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 162]%0筆(0.0%)(162, 164]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(162, 164]%0筆(0.0%)(164, 166]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(164, 166]%14筆(0.3%)(166, 168]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(166, 168]%0筆(0.0%)(168, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(168, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 172]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 172]%0筆(0.0%)(172, 174]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(172, 174]%0筆(0.0%)(174, 176]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(174, 176]%0筆(0.0%)(176, 178]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(176, 178]%0筆(0.0%)(178, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(178, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 182]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 182]%0筆(0.0%)(182, 184]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(182, 184]%0筆(0.0%)(184, 186]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(184, 186]%7筆(0.2%)(186, 188]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(186, 188]%0筆(0.0%)(188, 190]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(188, 190]%0筆(0.0%)(190, 192]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 192]%0筆(0.0%)(192, 194]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(192, 194]%0筆(0.0%)(194, 196]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(194, 196]%0筆(0.0%)(196, 198]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(196, 198]%0筆(0.0%)(198, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(198, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 202]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 202]%0筆(0.0%)(202, 204]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(202, 204]%0筆(0.0%)(204, 206]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(204, 206]%0筆(0.0%)(206, 208]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(206, 208]%0筆(0.0%)(208, 210]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(208, 210]%7筆(0.2%)(210, 212]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 212]%0筆(0.0%)(212, 214]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(212, 214]%0筆(0.0%)(214, 216]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(214, 216]%0筆(0.0%)(216, 218]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(216, 218]%0筆(0.0%)(218, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(218, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 222]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 222]%0筆(0.0%)(222, 224]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(222, 224]%0筆(0.0%)(224, 226]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(224, 226]%0筆(0.0%)(226, 228]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(226, 228]%0筆(0.0%)(228, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(228, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 232]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 232]%0筆(0.0%)(232, 234]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(232, 234]%0筆(0.0%)(234, 236]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(234, 236]%0筆(0.0%)(236, 238]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(236, 238]%7筆(0.2%)(238, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(238, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 242]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 242]%0筆(0.0%)(242, 244]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(242, 244]%0筆(0.0%)(244, 246]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(244, 246]%0筆(0.0%)(246, 248]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(246, 248]%0筆(0.0%)(248, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(248, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 252]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 252]%0筆(0.0%)(252, 254]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(252, 254]%0筆(0.0%)(254, 256]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(254, 256]%0筆(0.0%)(256, 258]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(256, 258]%0筆(0.0%)(258, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(258, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 262]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 262]%0筆(0.0%)(262, 264]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(262, 264]%0筆(0.0%)(264, 266]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(264, 266]%0筆(0.0%)(266, 268]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(266, 268]%0筆(0.0%)(268, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(268, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 272]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 272]%0筆(0.0%)(272, 274]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(272, 274]%0筆(0.0%)(274, 276]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(274, 276]%0筆(0.0%)(276, 278]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(276, 278]%0筆(0.0%)(278, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(278, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 282]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 282]%0筆(0.0%)(282, 284]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(282, 284]%0筆(0.0%)(284, 286]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(284, 286]%0筆(0.0%)(286, 288]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(286, 288]%0筆(0.0%)(288, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(288, 290]%0筆(0.0%)(290, 292]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(290, 292]%0筆(0.0%)(292, 294]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(292, 294]%0筆(0.0%)(294, 296]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(294, 296]%0筆(0.0%)(296, 298]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(296, 298]%0筆(0.0%)> 298%: 14筆 (0.30%)> 298%14筆(0.3%)

等距 10%(總覽)

(-70, -60]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(-70, -60]%7筆(0.2%)(-60, -50]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-60, -50]%0筆(0.0%)(-50, -40]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-50, -40]%0筆(0.0%)(-40, -30]%: 28筆 (0.60%)(-40, -30]%28筆(0.6%)(-30, -20]%: 126筆 (2.71%)(-30, -20]%126筆(2.7%)(-20, -10]%: 320筆 (6.88%)(-20, -10]%320筆(6.9%)(-10, 0]%: 1568筆 (33.72%)(-10, 0]%1568筆(33.7%)(0, 10]%: 1214筆 (26.11%)(0, 10]%1214筆(26.1%)(10, 20]%: 585筆 (12.58%)(10, 20]%585筆(12.6%)(20, 30]%: 290筆 (6.24%)(20, 30]%290筆(6.2%)(30, 40]%: 120筆 (2.58%)(30, 40]%120筆(2.6%)(40, 50]%: 105筆 (2.26%)(40, 50]%105筆(2.3%)(50, 60]%: 70筆 (1.51%)(50, 60]%70筆(1.5%)(60, 70]%: 42筆 (0.90%)(60, 70]%42筆(0.9%)(70, 80]%: 21筆 (0.45%)(70, 80]%21筆(0.5%)(80, 90]%: 35筆 (0.75%)(80, 90]%35筆(0.8%)(90, 100]%: 28筆 (0.60%)(90, 100]%28筆(0.6%)(100, 110]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(100, 110]%7筆(0.2%)(110, 120]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(110, 120]%14筆(0.3%)(120, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(120, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 140]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(130, 140]%7筆(0.2%)(140, 150]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(140, 150]%7筆(0.2%)(150, 160]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(150, 160]%7筆(0.2%)(160, 170]%: 14筆 (0.30%)(160, 170]%14筆(0.3%)(170, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 190]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(180, 190]%7筆(0.2%)(190, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 210]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(200, 210]%7筆(0.2%)(210, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 240]%: 7筆 (0.15%)(230, 240]%7筆(0.2%)(240, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 290]%0筆(0.0%)> 290%: 14筆 (0.30%)> 290%14筆(0.3%)
資金曲線年化估算(實際複利路徑,幾何平均):+1362.1%/年
依據:7 條互不重疊軌道,實際經過約 1786 天(約 4.9 年), 期末倍數跨軌道取幾何平均 = 500132.30x,換算年化 +1362.1%。
這個數字比下方「各期間報酬表」的算術平均更貼近實際:算術平均會被少數爆賺的軌道拉高 (例如某一軌 50 倍、另一軌只有 1.3 倍,算術平均會被前者拉走),幾何平均才代表「典型一條軌道」的真實經驗, 也是唯一真正對應「一筆錢從頭到尾連續投入」這個情境的算法。

多軌資金曲線(查驗複利風險用)

把整段歷史攤開,畫出 7 條互不重疊、各自獨立複利的資金軌道(起始都是 1.0,y 軸是對數座標, 因為複利成長可以跨好幾個數量級,線性座標會看不出早期的細節)。這張圖用來直接檢查「不停損(或停損很鬆)時, 會不會有某一軌被少數重摔的標的拖累,一路很久墊在低點沒有回本」——如果真的發生,會在圖上看到某條線大幅落後其他條、 長時間貼在低檔;如果只是像本頁其他數字顯示的那樣穩定成長,代表不是靠犧牲少數軌道去平均出來的, 而是因為每一筆交易本身就是「當天全部標的等權重」的組合報酬,單一標的重摔只會拉低當天組合報酬的一小部分 (例如池子裡 40 檔,一檔摔 −100% 只讓當天組合報酬掉約 −2.5 個百分點),不會讓整條資金軌道腰斬。 目前最差的一軌是第 3 軌,期末倍數 152791.93x; 全部軌道中最低點是第 4 軌在 2021-11-15,掉到 0.94x。
各軌最低點:第1軌 2021-11-04 1.00x;第2軌 2021-11-05 1.00x;第3軌 2021-11-11 0.99x;第4軌 2021-11-15 0.94x;第5軌 2021-11-16 0.97x;第6軌 2021-11-11 1.00x;第7軌 2021-11-30 0.95x。

0.5x1x2x5x10x20x50x100x200x500x1000x2021-11-042022-08-292023-06-232024-04-172025-02-092025-12-042026-09-29第1軌 期末=2052805.07x第1軌 2052805.07x第2軌 期末=1984244.42x第2軌 1984244.42x第3軌 期末=152791.93x第3軌 152791.93x第4軌 期末=1976134.77x第4軌 1976134.77x第5軌 期末=216095.30x第5軌 216095.30x第6軌 期末=186171.77x第6軌 186171.77x第7軌 期末=158188.66x第7軌 158188.66x

選中交易的進出場目視檢查(最佳指標組合+最佳操作方式)

動態換股模式尚未支援進出場時線圖。

選股規則=動能/均線乖離/RSI 三個指標在同一訊號日的百分位排名加權平均,指標窗格配合持有期換算,跟操作方式(槓桿/停損/停利)完全脫鉤, 所以指標好壞與操作方式好壞分開判斷。權重與 K 用「排名分數」(依資金模式,見上方)窮舉搜尋;試驗組數愈多不代表愈可靠, 請對照「預設等權重組合」與「全買」兩個基準,不要只看單一數字。本頁不構成投資建議。