InvestMarket 指標回測(固定最佳操作方式,搜尋選股指標・動態換股模式)

產生時間:2026-09-28 13:10:12 台灣時間(花費 8分59秒)
固定操作方式:槓桿2x/停損86%權益(價格43%)/不設移動停利(只持有到期)/最長持有14日曆日(%皆為權益%)(來源:操作方式回測最佳)
每日取排名前 K 名等權重(K=3(搜尋出的最佳));標的 42 檔;進場樣本 1235(訊號日間隔 1 日曆日,沿用操作方式回測); 指標窗格 10 個交易日(配合持有 14 日曆日換算,約 5/7 比例);期間共切 6 段、全部段都評估(沿用操作方式回測的期間數與切法,三頁一致,數字才能互相比較;純公式規則不需要訓練,不用留暖身期) ;搜尋 5 組權重×K(動態換股貝氏搜尋(optuna-tpe,5/8 組))

沿用操作方式回測的資金模式與排名目標(口徑一致才能比較「選股」vs「全買」):資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入)

指標回測控制頁 ・ 操作方式回測 ・ 每日排名

❌ 沒有找到勝過預設等權重組合的權重(動態換股模式沒有計算「全買」基準)(判定口徑=複利:資金模式:複利(同軌每筆用上一筆剩餘資金;每筆等效複利率);排名目標:各期間平均最好(不管最差期間)(平均=依實際持有天數年化後換算的等效值,提早出場的資金視為立刻再投入))
★判定口徑:複利 對照:固定資金口徑
組合年化 %
(資金週轉,
排名依據)
平均實際
持有日
每筆等效複利率
gavg_pc %
最差期間
min_pc %
年化固定資金 %每筆平均
fx_avg %
最差期間
fx_min %
最佳指標組合+321.714.7+2.106+0.447+262.3+10.581+2.194
預設等權重組合(三指標各1/3、前3名)+321.714.7+2.106+0.447+262.3+10.581+2.194
(最佳組合未勝過預設指標組合——搜尋結果可能只是雜訊)
使用組合:動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
每日前 3 名
3 個指標都是純技術規則(不是訓練出來的模型):動能=10個交易日報酬率;均線乖離=短均(10日)/長均(8倍)-1; RSI(強勢)=Wilder平滑 RSI 取「數值高」方向。權重與 K 用同一批評估期間窮舉搜尋出來(不是訓練模型,不需要 walk-forward,但權重/K 的選擇本身 看過全部評估期間的資料,跟操作方式回測選最佳參數一樣有事後選擇偏誤,正式使用前建議做樣本外驗證)。
「預設等權重組合」=固定基準線:三個指標權重各 1/3、每日前 3 名,不經搜尋;用來看「搜尋出來的權重」有沒有比不搜尋更好。

最佳組合:各期間(out-of-sample)

期間(訊號日)日曆日數每筆等效複利率 %選中標的單筆平均%(權益,算術) 整段期間報酬 %
(各路徑複利後平均)
固定資金每筆平均 %
(不複利)
固定資金整段累加 %每條路徑平均幾筆候選訊號日數軌道獲利比例
2021-10-24~2022-08-19300+0.447+2.194+28.94+2.194+125.0573100%
2022-08-20~2023-06-15300+0.515+3.826+28.64+3.826+187.5493100%
2023-06-16~2024-04-10300+6.126+26.761+1742.29+26.761+1311.3493100%
2024-04-11~2025-02-04300+0.831+5.377+64.28+5.377+322.6603100%
2025-02-05~2025-12-01300+2.881+12.534+321.78+12.537+635.150.73100%
2025-12-02~2026-09-28301+1.948+12.793+200.40+12.793+729.2573100%
全部期間(複利/累加)1801+2.021+63503.72+10.259+3310.7322.718

前 12 名指標組合

#設定年化 %(複利,資金週轉,排名依據)平均實際持有日最差期間 min_pc%複利平均 gavg_pc%固定資金平均 fx_avg%權重組合
1每日前 3 名+321.714.7+0.447+2.106+10.581動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.3
2每日前 2 名+672.410.0+0.134+3.087+8.285動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.1 + RSI(強勢)×0.8
3每日前 5 名+427.612.2+0.391+1.203+8.610動能×0.6 + 均線乖離×0.1 + RSI(強勢)×0.2
4每日前 2 名+317.612.4+0.048+2.368+8.446動能×0.2 + 均線乖離×0.3 + RSI(強勢)×0.5
5每日前 2 名+11.027.9-4.215+0.614+14.835動能×0.0 + 均線乖離×1.0 + RSI(強勢)×0.0
6每日前 2 名-46.222.4-2.766+0.110+14.739動能×0.3 + 均線乖離×0.7

報酬率分佈(單筆交易,查錯用)

每一筆是「一個標的、一個進場日」的實際模擬結果(權益%:已含槓桿、手續費與滑價,持有最長 15 日曆日)。用來檢查有沒有不合理的地方(例如停損筆的報酬遠超過停損設定、到期筆全部為正等)。(動態換股模式:每筆代表一次真正的排名換股或價格出場,不含期間結束時的強制標記;共 2241 筆。)
強平的位置:價格跌到權益虧損約 90%(=1 ÷ 槓桿 × 0.9,交易所會在保證金耗盡之前就強制平倉,不會等到虧 100%)就視為強平,所以「不設停損」時的大虧會集中在 −90% 再加上手續費/滑價(約 −91% ~ −93%),而不是 −100%;強平在表中歸類為「停損」。若遇跳空一開盤就穿過強平價,才會虧得更多(表中「跳空停損」的最小值)。

最佳指標組合(動態換股,整段歷史,全部軌道合併)

筆數平均%中位數%標準差%勝率%最小%P5P25P75P95最大%
2241+13.01+0.3869.7951.9-67.98-25.70-8.87+11.07+67.03+785.12

等距 2%(細節)

(-68, -66]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(-68, -66]%7筆(0.3%)(-66, -64]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-66, -64]%0筆(0.0%)(-64, -62]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-64, -62]%0筆(0.0%)(-62, -60]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-62, -60]%0筆(0.0%)(-60, -58]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(-60, -58]%7筆(0.3%)(-58, -56]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-58, -56]%0筆(0.0%)(-56, -54]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-56, -54]%0筆(0.0%)(-54, -52]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-54, -52]%0筆(0.0%)(-52, -50]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-52, -50]%0筆(0.0%)(-50, -48]%: 14筆 (0.62%)(-50, -48]%14筆(0.6%)(-48, -46]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-48, -46]%0筆(0.0%)(-46, -44]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(-46, -44]%7筆(0.3%)(-44, -42]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-44, -42]%0筆(0.0%)(-42, -40]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(-42, -40]%7筆(0.3%)(-40, -38]%: 21筆 (0.94%)(-40, -38]%21筆(0.9%)(-38, -36]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-38, -36]%0筆(0.0%)(-36, -34]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(-36, -34]%7筆(0.3%)(-34, -32]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(-34, -32]%0筆(0.0%)(-32, -30]%: 21筆 (0.94%)(-32, -30]%21筆(0.9%)(-30, -28]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(-30, -28]%7筆(0.3%)(-28, -26]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(-28, -26]%7筆(0.3%)(-26, -24]%: 22筆 (0.98%)(-26, -24]%22筆(1.0%)(-24, -22]%: 28筆 (1.25%)(-24, -22]%28筆(1.2%)(-22, -20]%: 21筆 (0.94%)(-22, -20]%21筆(0.9%)(-20, -18]%: 63筆 (2.81%)(-20, -18]%63筆(2.8%)(-18, -16]%: 28筆 (1.25%)(-18, -16]%28筆(1.2%)(-16, -14]%: 95筆 (4.24%)(-16, -14]%95筆(4.2%)(-14, -12]%: 63筆 (2.81%)(-14, -12]%63筆(2.8%)(-12, -10]%: 75筆 (3.35%)(-12, -10]%75筆(3.3%)(-10, -8]%: 105筆 (4.69%)(-10, -8]%105筆(4.7%)(-8, -6]%: 96筆 (4.28%)(-8, -6]%96筆(4.3%)(-6, -4]%: 109筆 (4.86%)(-6, -4]%109筆(4.9%)(-4, -2]%: 148筆 (6.60%)(-4, -2]%148筆(6.6%)(-2, 0]%: 119筆 (5.31%)(-2, 0]%119筆(5.3%)(0, 2]%: 164筆 (7.32%)(0, 2]%164筆(7.3%)(2, 4]%: 78筆 (3.48%)(2, 4]%78筆(3.5%)(4, 6]%: 130筆 (5.80%)(4, 6]%130筆(5.8%)(6, 8]%: 126筆 (5.62%)(6, 8]%126筆(5.6%)(8, 10]%: 72筆 (3.21%)(8, 10]%72筆(3.2%)(10, 12]%: 42筆 (1.87%)(10, 12]%42筆(1.9%)(12, 14]%: 29筆 (1.29%)(12, 14]%29筆(1.3%)(14, 16]%: 56筆 (2.50%)(14, 16]%56筆(2.5%)(16, 18]%: 35筆 (1.56%)(16, 18]%35筆(1.6%)(18, 20]%: 22筆 (0.98%)(18, 20]%22筆(1.0%)(20, 22]%: 29筆 (1.29%)(20, 22]%29筆(1.3%)(22, 24]%: 50筆 (2.23%)(22, 24]%50筆(2.2%)(24, 26]%: 23筆 (1.03%)(24, 26]%23筆(1.0%)(26, 28]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(26, 28]%0筆(0.0%)(28, 30]%: 35筆 (1.56%)(28, 30]%35筆(1.6%)(30, 32]%: 14筆 (0.62%)(30, 32]%14筆(0.6%)(32, 34]%: 14筆 (0.62%)(32, 34]%14筆(0.6%)(34, 36]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(34, 36]%7筆(0.3%)(36, 38]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(36, 38]%0筆(0.0%)(38, 40]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(38, 40]%7筆(0.3%)(40, 42]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(40, 42]%7筆(0.3%)(42, 44]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(42, 44]%0筆(0.0%)(44, 46]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(44, 46]%7筆(0.3%)(46, 48]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(46, 48]%7筆(0.3%)(48, 50]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(48, 50]%7筆(0.3%)(50, 52]%: 21筆 (0.94%)(50, 52]%21筆(0.9%)(52, 54]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(52, 54]%7筆(0.3%)(54, 56]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(54, 56]%7筆(0.3%)(56, 58]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(56, 58]%7筆(0.3%)(58, 60]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(58, 60]%0筆(0.0%)(60, 62]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(60, 62]%7筆(0.3%)(62, 64]%: 21筆 (0.94%)(62, 64]%21筆(0.9%)(64, 66]%: 14筆 (0.62%)(64, 66]%14筆(0.6%)(66, 68]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(66, 68]%7筆(0.3%)(68, 70]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(68, 70]%0筆(0.0%)(70, 72]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(70, 72]%0筆(0.0%)(72, 74]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(72, 74]%0筆(0.0%)(74, 76]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(74, 76]%0筆(0.0%)(76, 78]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(76, 78]%0筆(0.0%)(78, 80]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(78, 80]%0筆(0.0%)(80, 82]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(80, 82]%0筆(0.0%)(82, 84]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(82, 84]%0筆(0.0%)(84, 86]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(84, 86]%7筆(0.3%)(86, 88]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(86, 88]%0筆(0.0%)(88, 90]%: 14筆 (0.62%)(88, 90]%14筆(0.6%)(90, 92]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(90, 92]%7筆(0.3%)(92, 94]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(92, 94]%0筆(0.0%)(94, 96]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(94, 96]%7筆(0.3%)(96, 98]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(96, 98]%0筆(0.0%)(98, 100]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(98, 100]%0筆(0.0%)(100, 102]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(100, 102]%0筆(0.0%)(102, 104]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(102, 104]%0筆(0.0%)(104, 106]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(104, 106]%0筆(0.0%)(106, 108]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(106, 108]%0筆(0.0%)(108, 110]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(108, 110]%7筆(0.3%)(110, 112]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(110, 112]%0筆(0.0%)(112, 114]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(112, 114]%7筆(0.3%)(114, 116]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(114, 116]%0筆(0.0%)(116, 118]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(116, 118]%0筆(0.0%)(118, 120]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(118, 120]%7筆(0.3%)(120, 122]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(120, 122]%0筆(0.0%)(122, 124]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(122, 124]%0筆(0.0%)(124, 126]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(124, 126]%0筆(0.0%)(126, 128]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(126, 128]%0筆(0.0%)(128, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(128, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 132]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 132]%0筆(0.0%)(132, 134]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(132, 134]%0筆(0.0%)(134, 136]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(134, 136]%0筆(0.0%)(136, 138]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(136, 138]%0筆(0.0%)(138, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(138, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 142]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 142]%0筆(0.0%)(142, 144]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(142, 144]%0筆(0.0%)(144, 146]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(144, 146]%0筆(0.0%)(146, 148]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(146, 148]%0筆(0.0%)(148, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(148, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 152]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(150, 152]%0筆(0.0%)(152, 154]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(152, 154]%0筆(0.0%)(154, 156]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(154, 156]%0筆(0.0%)(156, 158]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(156, 158]%0筆(0.0%)(158, 160]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(158, 160]%7筆(0.3%)(160, 162]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 162]%0筆(0.0%)(162, 164]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(162, 164]%0筆(0.0%)(164, 166]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(164, 166]%0筆(0.0%)(166, 168]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(166, 168]%0筆(0.0%)(168, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(168, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 172]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 172]%0筆(0.0%)(172, 174]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(172, 174]%0筆(0.0%)(174, 176]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(174, 176]%0筆(0.0%)(176, 178]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(176, 178]%0筆(0.0%)(178, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(178, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 182]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(180, 182]%0筆(0.0%)(182, 184]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(182, 184]%0筆(0.0%)(184, 186]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(184, 186]%0筆(0.0%)(186, 188]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(186, 188]%0筆(0.0%)(188, 190]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(188, 190]%7筆(0.3%)(190, 192]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 192]%0筆(0.0%)(192, 194]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(192, 194]%0筆(0.0%)(194, 196]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(194, 196]%0筆(0.0%)(196, 198]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(196, 198]%0筆(0.0%)(198, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(198, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 202]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 202]%0筆(0.0%)(202, 204]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(202, 204]%0筆(0.0%)(204, 206]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(204, 206]%0筆(0.0%)(206, 208]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(206, 208]%0筆(0.0%)(208, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(208, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 212]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 212]%0筆(0.0%)(212, 214]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(212, 214]%0筆(0.0%)(214, 216]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(214, 216]%0筆(0.0%)(216, 218]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(216, 218]%0筆(0.0%)(218, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(218, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 222]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(220, 222]%0筆(0.0%)(222, 224]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(222, 224]%0筆(0.0%)(224, 226]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(224, 226]%7筆(0.3%)(226, 228]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(226, 228]%0筆(0.0%)(228, 230]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(228, 230]%0筆(0.0%)(230, 232]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 232]%0筆(0.0%)(232, 234]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(232, 234]%0筆(0.0%)(234, 236]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(234, 236]%0筆(0.0%)(236, 238]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(236, 238]%0筆(0.0%)(238, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(238, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 242]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 242]%0筆(0.0%)(242, 244]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(242, 244]%0筆(0.0%)(244, 246]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(244, 246]%0筆(0.0%)(246, 248]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(246, 248]%0筆(0.0%)(248, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(248, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 252]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 252]%0筆(0.0%)(252, 254]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(252, 254]%0筆(0.0%)(254, 256]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(254, 256]%0筆(0.0%)(256, 258]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(256, 258]%0筆(0.0%)(258, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(258, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 262]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 262]%0筆(0.0%)(262, 264]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(262, 264]%0筆(0.0%)(264, 266]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(264, 266]%0筆(0.0%)(266, 268]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(266, 268]%0筆(0.0%)(268, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(268, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 272]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 272]%0筆(0.0%)(272, 274]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(272, 274]%0筆(0.0%)(274, 276]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(274, 276]%0筆(0.0%)(276, 278]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(276, 278]%0筆(0.0%)(278, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(278, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 282]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 282]%0筆(0.0%)(282, 284]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(282, 284]%0筆(0.0%)(284, 286]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(284, 286]%0筆(0.0%)(286, 288]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(286, 288]%0筆(0.0%)(288, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(288, 290]%0筆(0.0%)(290, 292]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(290, 292]%0筆(0.0%)(292, 294]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(292, 294]%0筆(0.0%)(294, 296]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(294, 296]%0筆(0.0%)(296, 298]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(296, 298]%0筆(0.0%)> 298%: 35筆 (1.56%)> 298%35筆(1.6%)

等距 10%(總覽)

(-70, -60]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(-70, -60]%7筆(0.3%)(-60, -50]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(-60, -50]%7筆(0.3%)(-50, -40]%: 28筆 (1.25%)(-50, -40]%28筆(1.2%)(-40, -30]%: 49筆 (2.19%)(-40, -30]%49筆(2.2%)(-30, -20]%: 85筆 (3.79%)(-30, -20]%85筆(3.8%)(-20, -10]%: 324筆 (14.46%)(-20, -10]%324筆(14.5%)(-10, 0]%: 577筆 (25.75%)(-10, 0]%577筆(25.7%)(0, 10]%: 570筆 (25.44%)(0, 10]%570筆(25.4%)(10, 20]%: 184筆 (8.21%)(10, 20]%184筆(8.2%)(20, 30]%: 137筆 (6.11%)(20, 30]%137筆(6.1%)(30, 40]%: 42筆 (1.87%)(30, 40]%42筆(1.9%)(40, 50]%: 28筆 (1.25%)(40, 50]%28筆(1.2%)(50, 60]%: 42筆 (1.87%)(50, 60]%42筆(1.9%)(60, 70]%: 49筆 (2.19%)(60, 70]%49筆(2.2%)(70, 80]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(70, 80]%0筆(0.0%)(80, 90]%: 21筆 (0.94%)(80, 90]%21筆(0.9%)(90, 100]%: 14筆 (0.62%)(90, 100]%14筆(0.6%)(100, 110]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(100, 110]%7筆(0.3%)(110, 120]%: 14筆 (0.62%)(110, 120]%14筆(0.6%)(120, 130]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(120, 130]%0筆(0.0%)(130, 140]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(130, 140]%0筆(0.0%)(140, 150]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(140, 150]%0筆(0.0%)(150, 160]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(150, 160]%7筆(0.3%)(160, 170]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(160, 170]%0筆(0.0%)(170, 180]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(170, 180]%0筆(0.0%)(180, 190]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(180, 190]%7筆(0.3%)(190, 200]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(190, 200]%0筆(0.0%)(200, 210]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(200, 210]%0筆(0.0%)(210, 220]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(210, 220]%0筆(0.0%)(220, 230]%: 7筆 (0.31%)(220, 230]%7筆(0.3%)(230, 240]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(230, 240]%0筆(0.0%)(240, 250]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(240, 250]%0筆(0.0%)(250, 260]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(250, 260]%0筆(0.0%)(260, 270]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(260, 270]%0筆(0.0%)(270, 280]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(270, 280]%0筆(0.0%)(280, 290]%: 0筆 (0.00%)(280, 290]%0筆(0.0%)> 290%: 35筆 (1.56%)> 290%35筆(1.6%)
資金曲線年化估算(實際複利路徑,幾何平均):+319.4%/年
依據:7 條互不重疊軌道,實際經過約 1786 天(約 4.9 年), 期末倍數跨軌道取幾何平均 = 1112.05x,換算年化 +319.4%。
這個數字比下方「各期間報酬表」的算術平均更貼近實際:算術平均會被少數爆賺的軌道拉高 (例如某一軌 50 倍、另一軌只有 1.3 倍,算術平均會被前者拉走),幾何平均才代表「典型一條軌道」的真實經驗, 也是唯一真正對應「一筆錢從頭到尾連續投入」這個情境的算法。

多軌資金曲線(查驗複利風險用)

把整段歷史攤開,畫出 7 條互不重疊、各自獨立複利的資金軌道(起始都是 1.0,y 軸是對數座標, 因為複利成長可以跨好幾個數量級,線性座標會看不出早期的細節)。這張圖用來直接檢查「不停損(或停損很鬆)時, 會不會有某一軌被少數重摔的標的拖累,一路很久墊在低點沒有回本」——如果真的發生,會在圖上看到某條線大幅落後其他條、 長時間貼在低檔;如果只是像本頁其他數字顯示的那樣穩定成長,代表不是靠犧牲少數軌道去平均出來的, 而是因為每一筆交易本身就是「當天全部標的等權重」的組合報酬,單一標的重摔只會拉低當天組合報酬的一小部分 (例如池子裡 40 檔,一檔摔 −100% 只讓當天組合報酬掉約 −2.5 個百分點),不會讓整條資金軌道腰斬。 目前最差的一軌是第 5 軌,期末倍數 797.10x; 全部軌道中最低點是第 5 軌在 2022-11-09,掉到 0.43x。
各軌最低點:第1軌 2022-11-09 0.57x;第2軌 2023-01-05 0.52x;第3軌 2022-11-09 0.52x;第4軌 2023-01-05 0.55x;第5軌 2022-11-09 0.43x;第6軌 2022-11-09 0.54x;第7軌 2023-01-05 0.55x。

0.5x1x2x5x10x20x50x100x200x500x1000x2021-11-032022-08-282023-06-222024-04-162025-02-082025-12-032026-09-28第1軌 期末=1235.50x第1軌 1235.50x第2軌 期末=1248.51x第2軌 1248.51x第3軌 期末=1004.77x第3軌 1004.77x第4軌 期末=1306.82x第4軌 1306.82x第5軌 期末=797.10x第5軌 797.10x第6軌 期末=1048.30x第6軌 1048.30x第7軌 期末=1242.70x第7軌 1242.70x

選中交易的進出場目視檢查(最佳指標組合+最佳操作方式)

動態換股模式尚未支援進出場時線圖。

選股規則=動能/均線乖離/RSI 三個指標在同一訊號日的百分位排名加權平均,指標窗格配合持有期換算,跟操作方式(槓桿/停損/停利)完全脫鉤, 所以指標好壞與操作方式好壞分開判斷。權重與 K 用「排名分數」(依資金模式,見上方)窮舉搜尋;試驗組數愈多不代表愈可靠, 請對照「預設等權重組合」與「全買」兩個基準,不要只看單一數字。本頁不構成投資建議。