主要市場合約網格回測(做多)



模擬「做多合約網格」:以歷史某天收盤價為基準,布 ±30%、200 格(等比間距)的網格,之後用每日 開高低收重建價格路徑,逐格觸發買低賣高,測試 2x~8x 槓桿,停損用「帳戶浮動虧損%」(而非價格 跌幅%)——觸發即整組網格全部平倉停止。同一標的會每隔一段天數取一個歷史起始日滾動測試, 最後跟同槓桿、同期間「單純買進持有」比較,才知道網格到底有沒有比較好——網格在盤整/來回震盪時 較占優勢,單邊急漲時資金可能卡在較低檔格子裡,反而不如直接持有。

InvestMarket 合約網格回測(放寬搜尋:做多/中性 × 多種區間與格數 × 2x~8x槓桿 × 停損%)

產生時間:2026-08-22 13:29:47 台灣時間
持有天數=60 起始日間隔=20天 標的數=40 總模擬次數=480285
Phase 1:24 種形狀(模式×區間×格數)篩選,固定2x槓桿,停損候選 15%/30% Phase 2:取前 3 名形狀, 各自完整搜尋 7種槓桿×7種停損%

❌ 沒有找到贏過買進持有的組合。目前搜尋範圍內 edge 最高的是:做多|±45%|50 格、2x槓桿、停損5%,edge = -20.7611%(仍為負值)

Phase 1:形狀篩選(固定 2x 槓桿,停損 15%/30%)

排名形狀(模式|區間|格數)停損%網格報酬%買進持有%edge%
1做多|±45%|50 格 入選 Phase 230%-1.3299+19.7178-21.0477
2做多|±45%|100 格 入選 Phase 215%-2.3873+19.7178-22.1051
3做多|±30%|50 格 入選 Phase 215%-2.7135+19.7178-22.4314
4做多|±45%|200 格15%-3.1959+19.7178-22.9138
5中性|±45%|50 格15%-3.2070+19.7178-22.9249
6做多|±30%|100 格15%-3.7580+19.7178-23.4759
7中性|±45%|100 格15%-4.0512+19.7178-23.7690
8做多|±20%|50 格15%-4.1525+19.7178-23.8703
9做多|±30%|200 格15%-4.4793+19.7178-24.1972
10中性|±45%|200 格15%-4.6870+19.7178-24.4048
11中性|±30%|50 格15%-5.0250+19.7178-24.7428
12做多|±20%|100 格15%-5.1456+19.7178-24.8634
13做多|±15%|50 格15%-5.1798+19.7178-24.8976
14做多|±20%|200 格15%-5.7678+19.7178-25.4857
15中性|±30%|100 格15%-6.1577+19.7178-25.8755
16做多|±15%|100 格15%-6.1784+19.7178-25.8962
17做多|±15%|200 格15%-6.7856+19.7178-26.5034
18中性|±30%|200 格15%-6.8779+19.7178-26.5957
19中性|±20%|50 格15%-7.0038+19.7178-26.7216
20中性|±20%|100 格15%-8.1404+19.7178-27.8582
21中性|±15%|50 格15%-8.2133+19.7178-27.9311
22中性|±20%|200 格15%-8.8380+19.7178-28.5558
23中性|±15%|100 格15%-9.3414+19.7178-29.0593
24中性|±15%|200 格15%-10.0925+19.7178-29.8104

Phase 2 深入搜尋:做多|±45%|50 格

各槓桿最佳停損%(依 edge 挑選)

槓桿停損%網格報酬%買進持有%edge% 網格勝率停損觸發率平均完成來回格數樣本數
2x5%-1.0433+19.7178-20.761140.7%34.4%26.52463
3x5%-1.3063+30.6406-31.947041.0%43.3%22.72463
4x5%-1.4913+42.8424-44.333740.8%49.6%20.12463
5x5%-1.7163+56.1668-57.883040.5%55.0%17.92463
6x5%-1.8854+70.1158-72.001240.6%59.4%16.42463
7x5%-1.9600+84.4901-86.450040.7%62.4%15.22463
8x5%-2.0426+99.1818-101.224440.7%65.5%13.92463

全部(槓桿×停損%)組合明細

槓桿停損%網格報酬%買進持有%edge% 網格勝率停損觸發率平均完成來回格數樣本數
2x5%-1.0433+19.7178-20.7611 best40.7%34.4%26.52463
2x50%-1.2490+19.7178-20.966842.5%1.8%43.72463
2x40%-1.2702+19.7178-20.988042.4%2.8%43.22463
2x30%-1.3299+19.7178-21.047742.3%4.8%42.12463
2x10%-1.3380+19.7178-21.055841.1%20.9%33.32463
2x15%-1.4216+19.7178-21.139441.5%13.9%37.12463
2x20%-1.4260+19.7178-21.143941.7%9.5%39.32463
3x5%-1.3063+30.6406-31.9470 best41.0%43.3%22.72463
3x10%-1.7589+30.6406-32.399640.8%28.5%29.22463
3x50%-1.9831+30.6406-32.623842.3%3.9%42.62463
3x15%-2.0069+30.6406-32.647641.1%20.9%33.32463
3x40%-2.0934+30.6406-32.734042.0%6.1%41.32463
3x30%-2.1390+30.6406-32.779741.7%9.5%39.32463
3x20%-2.1474+30.6406-32.788041.5%16.1%36.02463
4x5%-1.4913+42.8424-44.3337 best40.8%49.6%20.12463
4x10%-2.0866+42.8424-44.929040.7%34.4%26.52463
4x15%-2.4363+42.8424-45.278740.8%26.1%30.62463
4x20%-2.6759+42.8424-45.518341.1%20.9%33.32463
4x50%-2.7393+42.8424-45.581742.0%6.7%40.92463
4x30%-2.8431+42.8424-45.685641.5%13.9%37.12463
4x40%-2.8520+42.8424-45.694541.7%9.5%39.32463
5x5%-1.7163+56.1668-57.8830 best40.5%55.0%17.92463
5x10%-2.3147+56.1668-58.481540.8%39.1%24.62463
5x15%-2.8008+56.1668-58.967540.8%30.5%28.12463
5x20%-3.0677+56.1668-59.234440.8%24.7%31.22463
5x50%-3.5651+56.1668-59.731841.7%9.5%39.32463
5x30%-3.6486+56.1668-59.815441.3%18.1%34.72463
5x40%-3.6749+56.1668-59.841641.6%13.1%37.52463
6x5%-1.8854+70.1158-72.0012 best40.6%59.4%16.42463
6x10%-2.6126+70.1158-72.728441.0%43.3%22.72463
6x15%-3.1299+70.1158-73.245740.7%34.4%26.52463
6x20%-3.5178+70.1158-73.633640.8%28.5%29.22463
6x30%-4.0139+70.1158-74.129741.1%20.9%33.32463
6x40%-4.2948+70.1158-74.410641.5%16.1%36.02463
6x50%-4.3798+70.1158-74.495641.6%12.1%37.82463
7x5%-1.9600+84.4901-86.4500 best40.7%62.4%15.22463
7x10%-2.7709+84.4901-87.261040.9%46.7%21.42463
7x15%-3.3456+84.4901-87.835740.7%37.5%25.02463
7x20%-3.8312+84.4901-88.321340.7%31.4%27.82463
7x30%-4.3952+84.4901-88.885340.9%23.6%31.92463
7x40%-5.0198+84.4901-89.509941.2%18.9%34.32463
7x50%-5.0832+84.4901-89.573341.5%15.0%36.52463
8x5%-2.0426+99.1818-101.2244 best40.7%65.5%13.92463
8x10%-2.9826+99.1818-102.164540.8%49.6%20.12463
8x15%-3.5875+99.1818-102.769340.8%40.6%23.82463
8x20%-4.1731+99.1818-103.355040.7%34.4%26.52463
8x30%-4.8725+99.1818-104.054440.8%26.1%30.62463
8x40%-5.3518+99.1818-104.533741.1%20.9%33.32463
8x50%-5.8761+99.1818-105.057941.3%17.4%35.12463

Phase 2 深入搜尋:做多|±45%|100 格

各槓桿最佳停損%(依 edge 挑選)

槓桿停損%網格報酬%買進持有%edge% 網格勝率停損觸發率平均完成來回格數樣本數
2x5%-1.6035+19.7178-21.321340.3%37.2%69.62463
3x5%-1.9832+30.6406-32.623840.6%47.0%59.02463
4x5%-2.3220+42.8424-45.164440.4%54.6%51.22463
5x5%-2.5662+56.1668-58.733040.4%60.1%45.52463
6x5%-2.8012+70.1158-72.917040.5%64.9%41.12463
7x5%-2.9724+84.4901-87.462440.7%68.4%37.32463
8x5%-3.0945+99.1818-102.276440.6%71.0%34.82463

全部(槓桿×停損%)組合明細

槓桿停損%網格報酬%買進持有%edge% 網格勝率停損觸發率平均完成來回格數樣本數
2x5%-1.6035+19.7178-21.3213 best40.3%37.2%69.62463
2x10%-2.1533+19.7178-21.871240.3%23.1%87.72463
2x15%-2.3873+19.7178-22.105140.7%15.3%97.72463
2x50%-2.4803+19.7178-22.198241.6%1.8%115.42463
2x30%-2.5095+19.7178-22.227341.5%5.3%111.02463
2x40%-2.5108+19.7178-22.228641.5%3.1%114.02463
2x20%-2.5188+19.7178-22.236641.0%10.8%103.72463
3x5%-1.9832+30.6406-32.6238 best40.6%47.0%59.02463
3x10%-2.7516+30.6406-33.392340.3%31.0%77.12463
3x15%-3.2300+30.6406-33.870640.3%23.1%87.72463
3x20%-3.6020+30.6406-34.242740.8%18.1%94.12463
3x50%-3.7554+30.6406-34.396041.5%4.3%112.82463
3x30%-3.7782+30.6406-34.418841.0%10.8%103.72463
3x40%-3.7791+30.6406-34.419841.2%6.9%108.92463
4x5%-2.3220+42.8424-45.1644 best40.4%54.6%51.22463
4x10%-3.2069+42.8424-46.049340.3%37.2%69.62463
4x15%-3.8561+42.8424-46.698540.4%28.7%80.12463
4x20%-4.3066+42.8424-47.149140.3%23.1%87.72463
4x30%-4.7745+42.8424-47.616940.7%15.3%97.72463
4x40%-5.0376+42.8424-47.880041.0%10.8%103.72463
4x50%-5.0900+42.8424-47.932441.1%7.8%107.82463
5x5%-2.5662+56.1668-58.7330 best40.4%60.1%45.52463
5x10%-3.6334+56.1668-59.800240.4%42.8%63.52463
5x15%-4.4352+56.1668-60.602040.3%33.8%74.02463
5x20%-4.8757+56.1668-61.042440.4%27.0%82.02463
5x30%-5.8315+56.1668-61.998240.6%19.9%91.52463
5x40%-6.0759+56.1668-62.242740.8%14.4%99.12463
5x50%-6.2969+56.1668-62.463741.0%10.8%103.72463
6x5%-2.8012+70.1158-72.9170 best40.5%64.9%41.12463
6x10%-3.9664+70.1158-74.082240.6%47.0%59.02463
6x15%-4.8104+70.1158-74.926240.3%37.2%69.62463
6x20%-5.5033+70.1158-75.619140.3%31.0%77.12463
6x30%-6.4600+70.1158-76.575840.3%23.1%87.72463
6x40%-7.2041+70.1158-77.319940.8%18.1%94.12463
6x50%-7.3775+70.1158-77.493340.8%13.8%99.82463
7x5%-2.9724+84.4901-87.4624 best40.7%68.4%37.32463
7x10%-4.3592+84.4901-88.849240.5%51.2%54.72463
7x15%-5.2706+84.4901-89.760640.3%41.1%65.42463
7x20%-6.0504+84.4901-90.540540.2%34.7%72.92463
7x30%-7.0686+84.4901-91.558640.3%25.7%84.02463
7x40%-7.9394+84.4901-92.429540.6%20.7%90.62463
7x50%-8.4118+84.4901-92.901940.8%16.5%96.32463
8x5%-3.0945+99.1818-102.2764 best40.6%71.0%34.82463
8x10%-4.6440+99.1818-103.825940.4%54.6%51.22463
8x15%-5.6651+99.1818-104.847040.6%44.3%61.82463
8x20%-6.4138+99.1818-105.595740.3%37.2%69.62463
8x30%-7.7122+99.1818-106.894040.4%28.7%80.12463
8x40%-8.6133+99.1818-107.795240.3%23.1%87.72463
8x50%-9.3907+99.1818-108.572540.7%19.2%92.72463

Phase 2 深入搜尋:做多|±30%|50 格

各槓桿最佳停損%(依 edge 挑選)

槓桿停損%網格報酬%買進持有%edge% 網格勝率停損觸發率平均完成來回格數樣本數
2x5%-1.6869+19.7178-21.404740.0%44.8%39.62463
3x5%-2.0561+30.6406-32.696840.1%54.5%32.52463
4x5%-2.3438+42.8424-45.186240.1%61.1%27.92463
5x5%-2.5827+56.1668-58.749540.2%66.3%24.52463
6x5%-2.7420+70.1158-72.857840.2%69.5%22.02463
7x5%-2.8914+84.4901-87.381540.4%72.2%20.22463
8x5%-2.9735+99.1818-102.155440.5%74.4%18.52463

全部(槓桿×停損%)組合明細

槓桿停損%網格報酬%買進持有%edge% 網格勝率停損觸發率平均完成來回格數樣本數
2x5%-1.6869+19.7178-21.4047 best40.0%44.8%39.62463
2x10%-2.3669+19.7178-22.084739.5%29.9%51.32463
2x50%-2.6983+19.7178-22.416241.8%2.7%73.32463
2x15%-2.7135+19.7178-22.431440.1%21.7%58.62463
2x40%-2.8164+19.7178-22.534341.9%4.8%72.42463
2x30%-2.9036+19.7178-22.621541.1%8.4%70.22463
2x20%-3.0350+19.7178-22.752940.8%16.4%63.82463
3x5%-2.0561+30.6406-32.6968 best40.1%54.5%32.52463
3x10%-2.8182+30.6406-33.458939.8%37.8%44.82463
3x15%-3.5503+30.6406-34.191039.5%29.9%51.32463
3x20%-3.8470+30.6406-34.487640.1%23.8%56.82463
3x50%-4.3150+30.6406-34.955741.5%7.0%71.22463
3x40%-4.4635+30.6406-35.104140.8%10.6%68.82463
3x30%-4.5525+30.6406-35.193240.8%16.4%63.82463
4x5%-2.3438+42.8424-45.1862 best40.1%61.1%27.92463
4x10%-3.3738+42.8424-46.216240.0%44.8%39.62463
4x15%-4.0494+42.8424-46.891839.7%35.6%46.52463
4x20%-4.7338+42.8424-47.576239.5%29.9%51.32463
4x30%-5.4270+42.8424-48.269440.1%21.7%58.62463
4x50%-5.9850+42.8424-48.827440.7%11.8%67.82463
4x40%-6.0700+42.8424-48.912540.8%16.4%63.82463
5x5%-2.5827+56.1668-58.7495 best40.2%66.3%24.52463
5x10%-3.7751+56.1668-59.941839.9%50.1%35.72463
5x15%-4.5926+56.1668-60.759340.0%40.7%42.72463
5x20%-5.2454+56.1668-61.412239.8%34.4%47.72463
5x30%-6.2467+56.1668-62.413540.0%25.9%54.82463
5x40%-6.9642+56.1668-63.131040.1%20.5%59.62463
5x50%-7.5876+56.1668-63.754340.8%16.4%63.82463
6x5%-2.7420+70.1158-72.8578 best40.2%69.5%22.02463
6x10%-4.1123+70.1158-74.228140.1%54.5%32.52463
6x15%-5.0606+70.1158-75.176440.0%44.8%39.62463
6x20%-5.6365+70.1158-75.752339.8%37.8%44.82463
6x30%-7.1007+70.1158-77.216539.5%29.9%51.32463
6x40%-7.6940+70.1158-77.809840.1%23.8%56.82463
6x50%-8.6102+70.1158-78.726040.3%19.9%60.42463
7x5%-2.8914+84.4901-87.3815 best40.4%72.2%20.22463
7x10%-4.4733+84.4901-88.963440.1%58.4%29.82463
7x15%-5.5327+84.4901-90.022739.9%48.7%36.92463
7x20%-6.2869+84.4901-90.777039.9%41.8%41.82463
7x30%-7.7223+84.4901-92.212439.7%33.2%48.82463
7x40%-8.8091+84.4901-93.299239.9%27.3%53.62463
7x50%-9.3056+84.4901-93.795640.3%22.7%57.82463
8x5%-2.9735+99.1818-102.1554 best40.5%74.4%18.52463
8x10%-4.6876+99.1818-103.869540.1%61.1%27.92463
8x15%-5.8938+99.1818-105.075640.0%51.6%34.62463
8x20%-6.7475+99.1818-105.929440.0%44.8%39.62463
8x30%-8.0988+99.1818-107.280739.7%35.6%46.52463
8x40%-9.4676+99.1818-108.649439.5%29.9%51.32463
8x50%-10.0419+99.1818-109.223840.1%24.9%55.82463

edge% = 網格報酬% − 買進持有%(同槓桿、同期間單純持有不做網格),正值代表網格贏過單純持有。
「網格勝率」=各次模擬中網格報酬贏過買進持有的比例;「停損觸發率」=觸發帳戶浮動虧損%停損、整組網格提前 平倉停止的比例(此處停損定義為「帳戶浮動虧損%」,跟其他頁面「價格跌幅%」的停損不是同一種); 「平均完成來回格數」=平均每次模擬完成幾次買低賣高/放空回補(直接反映該標的/期間的震盪幅度,數字愈高 代表網格策略愈有機會發揮)。
每次模擬:起始日收盤價為基準布 ±區間% 共 N 格(等比間距,實際區間/格數見各形狀標題),啟動時完全空手 (不預先建倉,等價格真的穿越到某格才成交),之後用每日開高低收重建價格路徑逐格觸發買賣,持有 60 天或提前停損為止;同一標的每隔 20 天取一個歷史起始日滾動測試,每次模擬 視為獨立試驗(不是同一帳戶依序複利),跨(標的×起始日)取算術平均,並把單次試驗的報酬率下限夾在 -100%(同一次模擬最多賠光該次投入的本金,不會因為單一極端案例就把整體平均污染成 -100%)。
搜尋方法:兩階段——Phase 1 對每種「形狀」(做多/中性 × 區間% × 格數)只用一個代表槓桿(2x, 上一輪結果顯示槓桿越低對網格越有利,用最有利的槓桿篩形狀最公平)+兩個停損候選找出該形狀的最佳 edge;取 edge 最高的前 3 名形狀進入 Phase 2,才對這些形狀做完整的槓桿×停損搜尋 (比照稍早 AI 停損搜尋「先粗篩、後細搜」的精神,避免對每種形狀都做全量搜尋、耗時暴增)。
中性模式(P0 以上鏡射新增放空格線)跟做多模式在「突破區間」時的行為不對稱:做多模式突破上緣是 「賣光打平、不再賺但也不再虧」,中性模式突破上緣是「空單套牢、繼續虧」——在明顯上漲趨勢的資料中, 中性模式可能因此比做多模式輸得更多,這是實測結果,不是設計目標。
⚠ 「買進持有%」這欄本身完全沒有停損保護(單純算「同槓桿抱到底」的原始報酬,可以低於 -100%); 網格策略則有帳戶浮動虧損%停損保護,遇到大跌會提前停損出場。所以高槓桿下 edge% 可能特別大,有一部分 是「網格有停損保護、買進持有沒有停損保護」這個先天差異造成的。
⚠ 手續費估算為每次成交(買/賣或空/補)0.05%(買賣合計約0.1%/回合),以真實限價掛單(maker) 運作的網格機器人費率可能更低,這裡的估算偏保守,可能低估網格策略的實際報酬。
槓桿交易風險極高,停損觸發後本金可能大幅虧損,本頁不構成投資建議。



設定回測

持有天數:

歷史起始日間隔:



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