② 指標回測 ・ ③ 操作回測(重調) ・ 買賣點分析控制頁
| # | 商品 | 筆數 | 持有天數合計 | log貢獻%(複利正確口徑) | 報酬簡單加總%(對照用) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AAOI | 8 | 503 | +28.3 | +1208.6 |
| 2 | AXTI | 8 | 380 | +24.2 | +1198.6 |
| 3 | SOLUSDT | 10 | 253 | +14.9 | +688.4 |
| 4 | NVDA | 11 | 383 | +11.1 | +332.2 |
| 5 | XRP-USD | 9 | 204 | +10.6 | +552.1 |
| 6 | AMD | 7 | 236 | +7.8 | +231.9 |
| 7 | META | 10 | 276 | +6.7 | +147.1 |
| 8 | WDC | 12 | 334 | +5.5 | +138.7 |
| 9 | MPX | 7 | 232 | +4.6 | +112.8 |
| 10 | BTCUSDT | 15 | 188 | +4.2 | +95.4 |
| 11 | GLW | 13 | 227 | +4.1 | +95.8 |
| 12 | XAUUSD | 13 | 285 | +3.1 | +58.8 |
| 13 | IBM | 8 | 367 | +2.9 | +60.5 |
| 14 | MSFT | 10 | 124 | +2.8 | +55.4 |
| 15 | STX | 13 | 269 | +2.4 | +74.4 |
| 16 | CL=F | 9 | 265 | +2.3 | +73.1 |
| 17 | VGK | 8 | 184 | +1.9 | +37.1 |
| 18 | SAMSUNG | 15 | 183 | +1.7 | +76.6 |
| 19 | AAPL | 14 | 187 | +1.4 | +31.8 |
| 20 | GOOGL | 10 | 116 | +1.1 | +28.1 |
| 21 | TXN | 4 | 72 | +1.1 | +21.0 |
| 22 | INTC | 10 | 144 | +0.7 | +102.2 |
| 23 | SPY | 1 | 14 | +0.3 | +5.6 |
| 24 | EWJ | 3 | 39 | +0.2 | +4.9 |
| 25 | TSLA | 10 | 236 | -0.2 | +34.9 |
| 26 | ASML | 3 | 65 | -0.3 | -3.9 |
| 27 | MU | 12 | 230 | -0.8 | +18.2 |
| 28 | SKHYNIX | 19 | 258 | -1.2 | +0.3 |
| 29 | ETHUSDT | 12 | 197 | -2.0 | +5.5 |
| 30 | NATGAS | 12 | 258 | -2.2 | +0.9 |
| 31 | AMAT | 3 | 52 | -2.3 | -32.8 |
| 32 | HIMS | 12 | 375 | -2.8 | -11.4 |
| 33 | CVX | 15 | 288 | -2.8 | -28.2 |
| 34 | TSM | 8 | 112 | -3.0 | -43.0 |
| 35 | BNB-USD | 9 | 98 | -3.1 | -40.0 |
| 36 | ONDS | 11 | 350 | -7.3 | +246.8 |
| 37 | XAGUSD | 17 | 242 | -7.5 | -82.5 |
| 38 | NBIS | 7 | 151 | -8.3 | -36.3 |
log貢獻%:這個商品每筆 log(1+報酬) 加總佔全軌總log報酬的比例(可能正可能負),是複利意義下 「正確」的貢獻拆解方式,全部商品加總必為100%;報酬簡單加總%只是直覺對照,不是複利概念,不會加總成100%。
每格=該商品在那段期間的「報酬簡單加總%」(不是複利,只看方向跟相對大小)。標紅的那欄是這一軌表現最差的期間(通常是空頭/整體下跌期)——如果某商品整段貢獻排名很後面,但在標紅那欄反而是正的或沒那麼負,代表它是「避風港」標的,拿掉它可能讓最差期間變更差,不建議刪;反過來,如果某商品在標紅那欄也是明顯負的,代表它沒有分散風險的作用,是比較安全的刪除候選。
| 商品 | 2021-11-05~2022-08-31 (最差期間) | 2022-09-01~2023-06-27 | 2023-06-28~2024-04-22 | 2024-04-23~2025-02-16 | 2025-02-17~2025-12-13 | 2025-12-14~2026-10-10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | -9.7 1筆 | +327.0 2筆 | +64.0 2筆 | +333.2 1筆 | -7.5 1筆 | +501.6 1筆 |
| AXTI | +55.3 2筆 | — | -47.9 2筆 | — | +564.6 3筆 | +626.6 1筆 |
| SOLUSDT | -20.2 1筆 | +0.4 2筆 | +614.0 4筆 | +40.8 1筆 | +27.4 1筆 | +25.9 1筆 |
| NVDA | — | +134.2 3筆 | +151.5 3筆 | +50.7 4筆 | — | -4.2 1筆 |
| XRP-USD | -34.0 2筆 | +51.3 2筆 | +14.2 2筆 | +521.3 2筆 | — | -0.8 1筆 |
| AMD | -16.2 1筆 | +53.1 2筆 | +46.6 1筆 | — | +32.4 1筆 | +116.1 2筆 |
| META | — | +101.0 4筆 | +16.2 2筆 | +11.7 3筆 | — | +18.2 1筆 |
| WDC | -7.1 2筆 | -3.6 1筆 | -25.9 4筆 | — | +144.7 4筆 | +30.6 1筆 |
| MPX | -20.2 3筆 | — | — | +47.6 2筆 | +85.4 2筆 | — |
| BTCUSDT | -23.1 1筆 | +6.1 4筆 | +60.2 5筆 | +18.0 2筆 | +20.3 1筆 | +13.9 2筆 |
| GLW | +6.7 2筆 | +11.6 1筆 | — | -16.6 7筆 | +62.5 1筆 | +31.6 2筆 |
| XAUUSD | +0.2 2筆 | +16.1 2筆 | +10.7 2筆 | +13.3 3筆 | +10.8 2筆 | +7.7 2筆 |
| IBM | +18.9 2筆 | +19.5 1筆 | +1.1 3筆 | +21.1 2筆 | — | — |
| MSFT | -8.2 1筆 | +29.1 2筆 | +9.1 2筆 | -5.2 2筆 | +6.2 2筆 | +24.3 1筆 |
| STX | -0.8 2筆 | -13.8 1筆 | +7.4 4筆 | -21.1 2筆 | +75.6 2筆 | +27.1 2筆 |
| CL=F | +58.6 2筆 | — | -15.1 2筆 | +6.6 2筆 | — | +22.9 3筆 |
| VGK | — | +20.0 2筆 | — | -3.9 3筆 | +14.9 2筆 | +6.1 1筆 |
| SAMSUNG | +2.2 2筆 | +1.9 3筆 | -4.9 1筆 | -8.3 1筆 | -14.4 4筆 | +100.1 4筆 |
| AAPL | +25.1 4筆 | +1.2 1筆 | -1.1 1筆 | +8.9 6筆 | — | -2.2 2筆 |
| GOOGL | -13.9 1筆 | +22.1 2筆 | -4.7 2筆 | +10.3 2筆 | +19.2 2筆 | -4.8 1筆 |
| TXN | +10.7 2筆 | — | — | +16.4 1筆 | — | -6.1 1筆 |
| INTC | -7.7 1筆 | -6.4 1筆 | +0.0 2筆 | -11.9 1筆 | -18.7 3筆 | +147.0 2筆 |
| SPY | — | — | — | — | — | +5.6 1筆 |
| EWJ | — | — | -4.9 1筆 | — | +13.1 1筆 | -3.3 1筆 |
| TSLA | -39.4 3筆 | -8.0 3筆 | — | +77.3 3筆 | — | +5.0 1筆 |
| ASML | — | -13.3 2筆 | +9.4 1筆 | — | — | — |
| MU | -26.9 4筆 | — | -21.1 3筆 | -16.6 1筆 | +46.0 2筆 | +36.8 2筆 |
| SKHYNIX | -1.5 4筆 | -0.1 3筆 | -34.2 4筆 | +25.6 2筆 | +12.8 1筆 | -2.3 5筆 |
| ETHUSDT | -34.6 3筆 | -47.3 2筆 | +51.4 2筆 | — | -36.6 3筆 | +72.6 2筆 |
| NATGAS | -18.2 5筆 | — | +23.5 1筆 | +19.5 3筆 | -24.0 3筆 | — |
| AMAT | — | +11.8 1筆 | — | — | -11.6 1筆 | -32.9 1筆 |
| HIMS | +68.1 1筆 | -44.3 3筆 | +10.7 2筆 | -16.7 4筆 | -9.1 1筆 | -20.0 1筆 |
| CVX | +1.4 5筆 | +34.6 2筆 | -14.6 3筆 | -5.6 1筆 | -31.8 1筆 | -12.3 3筆 |
| TSM | -42.0 3筆 | -3.1 2筆 | +24.8 1筆 | -22.7 2筆 | — | — |
| BNB-USD | -32.6 2筆 | -33.3 2筆 | +38.3 2筆 | -17.1 2筆 | — | +4.6 1筆 |
| ONDS | -35.7 2筆 | -3.1 1筆 | -44.9 2筆 | -95.9 3筆 | +453.0 2筆 | -26.7 1筆 |
| XAGUSD | -16.7 3筆 | -33.2 4筆 | -18.9 4筆 | -3.2 1筆 | +43.8 4筆 | -54.3 1筆 |
| NBIS | — | — | — | -8.5 1筆 | -19.5 4筆 | -8.3 2筆 |
| 全部標的合計 | -161.6 | +631.7 | +915.1 | +969.1 | +1459.3 | +1646.1 |
最差期間=2021-11-05~2022-08-31。最差期間排名欄用顏色標示:綠=該商品在最差期間排前5名(抗跌/避風港),紅=排最後5名(最差期間也是拖累),中間依名次紅綠漸層。整段排名很後面但最差期間排名偏綠的商品=避風港候選,建議保留;整段跟最差期間排名都偏紅的商品=純拖累,可優先考慮刪除。兩種口徑的log貢獻%分母不同(各自期間的總log報酬),不能直接相減,只能看名次方向跟正負。最差期間log貢獻%已校正符號:該期間整體是賠錢的,所以+代表這個商品在這段期間比整體平均不那麼糟(甚至可能本身是賺錢的),-代表比整體平均更糟,不是「佔賠錢總額的比例」字面意思。
| 商品 | 最差期間 | 整段期間 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 名次 | log貢獻% | 簡單加總% | 名次 | log貢獻% | 簡單加總% | |
| AAOI | 16 | -3.6 | -9.7 | 1 | +28.3 | +1208.6 |
| AXTI | 2 | +14.9 | +55.3 | 2 | +24.2 | +1198.6 |
| SOLUSDT | 21 | -8.0 | -20.2 | 3 | +14.9 | +688.4 |
| NVDA | — | — | — | 4 | +11.1 | +332.2 |
| XRP-USD | 25 | -13.1 | -34.0 | 5 | +10.6 | +552.1 |
| AMD | 18 | -6.2 | -16.2 | 6 | +7.8 | +231.9 |
| META | — | — | — | 7 | +6.7 | +147.1 |
| WDC | 14 | -2.9 | -7.1 | 8 | +5.5 | +138.7 |
| MPX | 20 | -7.4 | -20.2 | 9 | +4.6 | +112.8 |
| BTCUSDT | 22 | -9.3 | -23.1 | 10 | +4.2 | +95.4 |
| GLW | 7 | +2.3 | +6.7 | 11 | +4.1 | +95.8 |
| XAUUSD | 9 | -0.1 | +0.2 | 12 | +3.1 | +58.8 |
| IBM | 5 | +6.2 | +18.9 | 13 | +2.9 | +60.5 |
| MSFT | 15 | -3.0 | -8.2 | 14 | +2.8 | +55.4 |
| STX | 10 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 15 | +2.4 | +74.4 |
| CL=F | 3 | +14.8 | +58.6 | 16 | +2.3 | +73.1 |
| VGK | — | — | — | 17 | +1.9 | +37.1 |
| SAMSUNG | 8 | +0.7 | +2.2 | 18 | +1.7 | +76.6 |
| AAPL | 4 | +7.3 | +25.1 | 19 | +1.4 | +31.8 |
| GOOGL | 17 | -5.3 | -13.9 | 20 | +1.1 | +28.1 |
| TXN | 6 | +3.5 | +10.7 | 21 | +1.1 | +21.0 |
| INTC | 13 | -2.8 | -7.7 | 22 | +0.7 | +102.2 |
| SPY | — | — | — | 23 | +0.3 | +5.6 |
| EWJ | — | — | — | 24 | +0.2 | +4.9 |
| TSLA | 29 | -15.2 | -39.4 | 25 | -0.2 | +34.9 |
| ASML | — | — | — | 26 | -0.3 | -3.9 |
| MU | 23 | -10.1 | -26.9 | 27 | -0.8 | +18.2 |
| SKHYNIX | 11 | -1.2 | -1.5 | 28 | -1.2 | +0.3 |
| ETHUSDT | 26 | -13.3 | -34.6 | 29 | -2.0 | +5.5 |
| NATGAS | 27 | -13.5 | -18.2 | 30 | -2.2 | +0.9 |
| AMAT | — | — | — | 31 | -2.3 | -32.8 |
| HIMS | 1 | +18.3 | +68.1 | 32 | -2.8 | -11.4 |
| CVX | 12 | -2.6 | +1.4 | 33 | -2.8 | -28.2 |
| TSM | 30 | -16.9 | -42.0 | 34 | -3.0 | -43.0 |
| BNB-USD | 24 | -12.7 | -32.6 | 35 | -3.1 | -40.0 |
| ONDS | 28 | -13.9 | -35.7 | 36 | -7.3 | +246.8 |
| XAGUSD | 19 | -6.7 | -16.7 | 37 | -7.5 | -82.5 |
| NBIS | — | — | — | 38 | -8.3 | -36.3 |
買賣點K線圖:藍點=進場、綠/紅點=出場(賺/賠),虛線連接同一筆交易; 紫色虛線(若有)=這個商品每天在全池裡的排名,用②存檔的指標權重算,跟持有方式(固定/動態)無關。 本頁不構成投資建議。